Throne Speech Precipitate

Last night's prime-time throne speech was yet another one of those whitehouse-wannabe moves. I guess they would have called it a state-of-the-union address given the opportunity. A lot of media did anyway. Interestingly, the Conservatives abandoned the ideas of securing a Sparks Street building for a new 'briefing room' idea - a la the American Whitehouse sessions. I guess the idea would have been that they could invite only the press they like to those sessions, rather than being under the rules of the press club or other egalitarian approach to communication. The government has been terrible for open communication with media and thereby Canadian citizens.

So our GG gives the speech last night - I must admit it was interesting to see the ceremony around the situations, with the black-rod guy and all the MP's being forced to stand in the doorway of the Senate - that's pretty wild. I'm uncomfortable standing idle for 40minutes, I don't know how all those ancient folk do it.

Regarding the style and substance - first the former: call me old fashioned, but I think the GG should be a master communicator, with a good command of the language and ability to convey some depth as she reads the text. I didn't get that here. Our previous GG - Adrian Clarkson was a superior reader for that role. Madame Jean regaled us with several references to the Canaddin Miltree. But she looked good in the big chair. And what was with the marmalade jar lid on her shoulder?

Wouldn't it be something to see a little more teeth in that role, so that there are a slate of qualifications that Canadians demand for the job, and then she/he writes their own speech based on the input from the government. Then they can play off both sides - communicate the intent from the government, but add some cautionary words.

Okay - I know I'm way off topic. Let's reform the pseudo-monarchy.

Anyway, regarding substance this whole thing isn't so much about government as it is about the topic of this blog... ie the next election.

The NDP and the Block quickly play their part - and advocate defeat for the budget. The Conservatives play their part, and change it into not an opportunity to use the Liberal parties disarray to foist an election on them (that would have meant putting out a crazy budget to force immediate defeat) but rather they play the card of indicating they will re-introduce all their crappiest legislation from the last session.

Now the game is that the liberals either have to initiate an election, or 'not show up' for the vote, tacitly approving the budget, and then being faced with all the previously rejected legislation. Each element of that - by the way - will now be designated a confidence bill - and so again, the liberals either face an election with their current mess, or help the conservative impose martial law and serve up kittens for dinner.

Election this Fall
So will there be an election this fall? Not sure - lets work it through.

Either the Liberals don't show up and let the speech pass, or they bring it down. They will propose an amendment to the speech which should be something about Kyoto and environment, so that if the house falls, they can say that it is on that issue, which is the one they wish to fight the election around.

So yeah, I think there will be an election - maybe not right away, but the precipitating event will be linked to this speech. If not a direct defeat, then a defeat based on the amendment, and if not that, then a defeat based on the accompanying budget, or the resulting legislation.

But wait - it has to happen very soon if we aren't facing a Christmas campaign. Just think of the worms stirred up in that. To Jesus or not to Jesus your way through the holidays - separation of religion and politics. Every candidate will have to be buried in events for Hanukkah, Christmas, Hajj, Eid-Ul-Adha, Kwanza, Flying-Spaghetti day and all the rest.

So lets watch and see!