There is a strange detente in Canadian politics. I had expected an election by now, but there remains this strange stand-off based on the fact that the Conservatives can't gain any support, and thus would be stuck with the same situation after any election, and the liberals have a weak, uncharismatic leader.
The Bali climate change conference surely didn't win them any support, with his Smiling Smugness presiding over the portfolio. The eventual capitulation to acknowledge a slightly less pig-headed stance will not likely win many supporters over either, but rather there will be just a further sense of following the American position blindly. Interestingly, the pull-back by the American contingent is now being characterized as un-supportable by the White House. What will His Royal Smugitude do if they reverse their position post conference?
Anyway, I'm not sure how this gets resolved. Presumably, given a few month window, Dion might have the foresight to withdraw and let others take over. If they were smart they would secretly cue up a convention and have a re-vote with a short window. Or ideally, show a little leadership and have it all over the web and/or phone in voting.
We can only speculate what the new year will bring.
Tuesday
Thursday
Step One
That's pretty much as I expected. The Liberals under Stephan Dion will 'not show up' for the vote on the Throne Speech. Our PM is taking a super arrogant tone about no amendments. The Liberals have walked into this one with their troubles.
Lucky for us there is a minority government, in that the speech we heard - as Dion says - is a lot different that what we'd see if there was a majority government.
The Crime bill will the first reprise of previous legislation that the Conservatives will try to force through the house. This will be a tough one - but the media isn't helping me much here. I've heard and read a few reports, but they never tell us what the opposition didn't like about the original bill that was defeated. C'mon journalists - give us the details we need to understand the situation!
Presumably amendments will be proposed, but the question is, will Mr. Dion let this one go forward, or will he stop the spinning wheel there. I speculate that he will hold his nose and abstain from voting this one down as well.
He's likely going to wait until an environmentally related bill comes up and then propose changes that won't go through and then vote it down.
The Conservatives will know that, and so will stuff in all sorts of other bills first. Gun Registry elimination will likely be one of them. OF course, nobody except a handful of rural gun folk will support that, so it's maybe not a bad one to call an election on as well.
Our government is in dire need of some good leadership - Dion's not going to do it, Harper is a scary guy as are his cronies. The other options are likely in any scenario. How does it happen? Presumably a liberal leadership change - resulting in a Ignatief/Rae option... neither of which are very appealing. The former exudes a smug, eye-rolling smirkiness when dealing with others that wipes out his other potentially positive traits. Rae has too much baggage from provincial politics to take Ontario, and is seen as an Ontarian by everyone else. I suppose a Manley run might be possible, and he has some credibility.
Harper will surely stay on even if defeated in some way, particularly if Parliament flips to a liberal minority somehow.
It's going to be a while before we can see any landscape change that makes a difference to the race.
Voter Prefs?
I don't see a big change in the offing in voter preferences. I think the conservative vote is topped out, and any change might exhibit what we've seen in Ontario elections recently, with a drop across the traditional parties, and a gain by the fringe ones - with Greens picking up more votes. I think Liberals will switch more to voting out of party loyalty, and vote mostly against the other guy, while they wait for a leadership change.
The saga continues.
Lucky for us there is a minority government, in that the speech we heard - as Dion says - is a lot different that what we'd see if there was a majority government.
The Crime bill will the first reprise of previous legislation that the Conservatives will try to force through the house. This will be a tough one - but the media isn't helping me much here. I've heard and read a few reports, but they never tell us what the opposition didn't like about the original bill that was defeated. C'mon journalists - give us the details we need to understand the situation!
Presumably amendments will be proposed, but the question is, will Mr. Dion let this one go forward, or will he stop the spinning wheel there. I speculate that he will hold his nose and abstain from voting this one down as well.
He's likely going to wait until an environmentally related bill comes up and then propose changes that won't go through and then vote it down.
The Conservatives will know that, and so will stuff in all sorts of other bills first. Gun Registry elimination will likely be one of them. OF course, nobody except a handful of rural gun folk will support that, so it's maybe not a bad one to call an election on as well.
Our government is in dire need of some good leadership - Dion's not going to do it, Harper is a scary guy as are his cronies. The other options are likely in any scenario. How does it happen? Presumably a liberal leadership change - resulting in a Ignatief/Rae option... neither of which are very appealing. The former exudes a smug, eye-rolling smirkiness when dealing with others that wipes out his other potentially positive traits. Rae has too much baggage from provincial politics to take Ontario, and is seen as an Ontarian by everyone else. I suppose a Manley run might be possible, and he has some credibility.
Harper will surely stay on even if defeated in some way, particularly if Parliament flips to a liberal minority somehow.
It's going to be a while before we can see any landscape change that makes a difference to the race.
Voter Prefs?
I don't see a big change in the offing in voter preferences. I think the conservative vote is topped out, and any change might exhibit what we've seen in Ontario elections recently, with a drop across the traditional parties, and a gain by the fringe ones - with Greens picking up more votes. I think Liberals will switch more to voting out of party loyalty, and vote mostly against the other guy, while they wait for a leadership change.
The saga continues.
Wednesday
Throne Speech Precipitate
Last night's prime-time throne speech was yet another one of those whitehouse-wannabe moves. I guess they would have called it a state-of-the-union address given the opportunity. A lot of media did anyway. Interestingly, the Conservatives abandoned the ideas of securing a Sparks Street building for a new 'briefing room' idea - a la the American Whitehouse sessions. 
I guess the idea would have been that they could invite only the press they like to those sessions, rather than being under the rules of the press club or other egalitarian approach to communication. The government has been terrible for open communication with media and thereby Canadian citizens.
So our GG gives the speech last night - I must admit it was interesting to see the ceremony around the situations, with the black-rod guy and all the MP's being forced to stand in the doorway of the Senate - that's pretty wild. I'm uncomfortable standing idle for 40minutes, I don't know how all those ancient folk do it.
Regarding the style and substance - first the former: call me old fashioned, but I think the GG should be a master communicator, with a good command of the language and ability to convey some depth as she reads the text. I didn't get that here. Our previous GG - Adrian Clarkson was a superior reader for that role.
Madame Jean regaled us with several references to the Canaddin Miltree. But she looked good in the big chair. And what was with the marmalade jar lid on her shoulder?
Wouldn't it be something to see a little more teeth in that role, so that there are a slate of qualifications that Canadians demand for the job, and then she/he writes their own speech based on the input from the government. Then they can play off both sides - communicate the intent from the government, but add some cautionary words.
Okay - I know I'm way off topic. Let's reform the pseudo-monarchy.
Anyway, regarding substance this whole thing isn't so much about government as it is about the topic of this blog... ie the next election.
The NDP and the Block quickly play their part - and advocate defeat for the budget. The Conservatives play their part, and change it into not an opportunity to use the Liberal parties disarray to foist an election on them (that would have meant putting out a crazy budget to force immediate defeat) but rather they play the card of indicating they will re-introduce all their crappiest legislation from the last session.
Now the game is that the liberals either have to initiate an election, or 'not show up' for the vote, tacitly approving the budget, and then being faced with all the previously rejected legislation. Each element of that - by the way - will now be designated a confidence bill - and so again, the liberals either face an election with their current mess, or help the conservative impose martial law and serve up kittens for dinner.
Election this Fall
So will there be an election this fall? Not sure - lets work it through.
Either the Liberals don't show up and let the speech pass, or they bring it down. They will propose an amendment to the speech which should be something about Kyoto and environment, so that if the house falls, they can say that it is on that issue, which is the one they wish to fight the election around.
So yeah, I think there will be an election - maybe not right away, but the precipitating event will be linked to this speech. If not a direct defeat, then a defeat based on the amendment, and if not that, then a defeat based on the accompanying budget, or the resulting legislation.
But wait - it has to happen very soon if we aren't facing a Christmas campaign. Just think of the worms stirred up in that. To Jesus or not to Jesus your way through the holidays - separation of religion and politics. Every candidate will have to be buried in events for Hanukkah, Christmas, Hajj, Eid-Ul-Adha, Kwanza, Flying-Spaghetti day and all the rest.
So lets watch and see!
I guess the idea would have been that they could invite only the press they like to those sessions, rather than being under the rules of the press club or other egalitarian approach to communication. The government has been terrible for open communication with media and thereby Canadian citizens.So our GG gives the speech last night - I must admit it was interesting to see the ceremony around the situations, with the black-rod guy and all the MP's being forced to stand in the doorway of the Senate - that's pretty wild. I'm uncomfortable standing idle for 40minutes, I don't know how all those ancient folk do it.
Regarding the style and substance - first the former: call me old fashioned, but I think the GG should be a master communicator, with a good command of the language and ability to convey some depth as she reads the text. I didn't get that here. Our previous GG - Adrian Clarkson was a superior reader for that role.
Madame Jean regaled us with several references to the Canaddin Miltree. But she looked good in the big chair. And what was with the marmalade jar lid on her shoulder?Wouldn't it be something to see a little more teeth in that role, so that there are a slate of qualifications that Canadians demand for the job, and then she/he writes their own speech based on the input from the government. Then they can play off both sides - communicate the intent from the government, but add some cautionary words.
Okay - I know I'm way off topic. Let's reform the pseudo-monarchy.
Anyway, regarding substance this whole thing isn't so much about government as it is about the topic of this blog... ie the next election.
The NDP and the Block quickly play their part - and advocate defeat for the budget. The Conservatives play their part, and change it into not an opportunity to use the Liberal parties disarray to foist an election on them (that would have meant putting out a crazy budget to force immediate defeat) but rather they play the card of indicating they will re-introduce all their crappiest legislation from the last session.
Now the game is that the liberals either have to initiate an election, or 'not show up' for the vote, tacitly approving the budget, and then being faced with all the previously rejected legislation. Each element of that - by the way - will now be designated a confidence bill - and so again, the liberals either face an election with their current mess, or help the conservative impose martial law and serve up kittens for dinner.
Election this Fall
So will there be an election this fall? Not sure - lets work it through.
Either the Liberals don't show up and let the speech pass, or they bring it down. They will propose an amendment to the speech which should be something about Kyoto and environment, so that if the house falls, they can say that it is on that issue, which is the one they wish to fight the election around.
So yeah, I think there will be an election - maybe not right away, but the precipitating event will be linked to this speech. If not a direct defeat, then a defeat based on the amendment, and if not that, then a defeat based on the accompanying budget, or the resulting legislation.
But wait - it has to happen very soon if we aren't facing a Christmas campaign. Just think of the worms stirred up in that. To Jesus or not to Jesus your way through the holidays - separation of religion and politics. Every candidate will have to be buried in events for Hanukkah, Christmas, Hajj, Eid-Ul-Adha, Kwanza, Flying-Spaghetti day and all the rest.
So lets watch and see!
Thursday
Quebec ByElection Review
Interesting steps toward election time. The recent flurry of Quebec by-elections adds more complexity to the landscape. Generally, it looks like bad news for the Liberals, good news for the Conservatives and NDP and worst news for the Bloc.
After Gilles Duceppe did his spectacular flip flop (I quit see ya - oh wait, no I don't) I figured they were finished, and the election backs that up. Three ridings were up for grabs Outremont, Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. They went NDP, Conservative and Bloc. The latter was a very thin win where it should have been a big margin. The Roberval thing is noteable to see, but a right wing reactionary vote as a fall-back isn't too surprising.
The NDP getting a seat in Quebec is a surprising, but Outrement, I can kind of understand. It's trendy and left-bank feeling, so it's not a stretch from that point of view. Hmmm how did the greens do there I wonder... Whew - down in the weeds!
It was Bloc and Conservative at 2k a piece, liberals at 7k and NDP at just over 11k. Greens: 529.
Yikes.
Anyway, my point is that this doesn't say much for Liberal leader Dionne's future - which makes me think, election soon. Liberals must be thinking, "how can we dump this guy?" Conservatives must be just waiting for some indication that it's bubbling a bit more, and they'll drop the writ.
Speculation I've also heard is that the Ignatief camp is holding back to help the stumble along. They'll look better with their guy having been around for a few weeks now at least. He doesn't look so much like he's just stepped off the plane.
The bottom line is that our leadership is pretty marginal. There is no real choice out there - anything would be better than Harper, but I wouldn't want a majority on any of them.
The waiting for the Election signals continues, but I'm guessing we'll see it happen during the winter - I suspect the pending Ontario Election means it won't happen before Christmas though.
After Gilles Duceppe did his spectacular flip flop (I quit see ya - oh wait, no I don't) I figured they were finished, and the election backs that up. Three ridings were up for grabs Outremont, Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. They went NDP, Conservative and Bloc. The latter was a very thin win where it should have been a big margin. The Roberval thing is noteable to see, but a right wing reactionary vote as a fall-back isn't too surprising.
The NDP getting a seat in Quebec is a surprising, but Outrement, I can kind of understand. It's trendy and left-bank feeling, so it's not a stretch from that point of view. Hmmm how did the greens do there I wonder... Whew - down in the weeds!
It was Bloc and Conservative at 2k a piece, liberals at 7k and NDP at just over 11k. Greens: 529.
Yikes.
Anyway, my point is that this doesn't say much for Liberal leader Dionne's future - which makes me think, election soon. Liberals must be thinking, "how can we dump this guy?" Conservatives must be just waiting for some indication that it's bubbling a bit more, and they'll drop the writ.
Speculation I've also heard is that the Ignatief camp is holding back to help the stumble along. They'll look better with their guy having been around for a few weeks now at least. He doesn't look so much like he's just stepped off the plane.
The bottom line is that our leadership is pretty marginal. There is no real choice out there - anything would be better than Harper, but I wouldn't want a majority on any of them.
The waiting for the Election signals continues, but I'm guessing we'll see it happen during the winter - I suspect the pending Ontario Election means it won't happen before Christmas though.
Wednesday
Sixty Days is Now?
In February, I speculated that the election would be in about 6 months. I was a bit off, perhaps, but I see the wheels turning still.
My premise is/was that the plan for making the next election happen was orchestrated a few months back, and the pieces are still falling into place. Back in February, a new Kyoto law was passed as a private members bill. This law requires the government to set out their greenhouse gas remediation plan. Of course, they are having none of that, and that is what the opposition wants - force the government into a environmentally triggered non-confidence vote and an election scheduled shortly thereafter. This fits with all the opposition parties (except the Bloc) who are looking to fight this next race on the hot-button topic of the environment.
Yesterday was the deadline. I certainly didn't hear anything happen. It's a pretty sad day when laws passed by the house are ignored by the government. What ever happened to democracy. It seems as bad as the US where they do crazy things with their legislation. In that bastion of democracy, their president can just arbitrarily write in new stuff after a bill is passed. What a wacky world that is - "I just signed my employment contract, I think I'll write in a 100% raise, and a 6month paid vacation... there." What if we could work that way. I also heard something about an anonymous hold that can be put onto legislation there as well.
Anyway, we are seeing more of that US playbook in action here. Unfortunately the Liberal/NDP options are not very compelling currently. But either is better than the creepy Harper guy. Liz May and her greens initially sounded viable to me, but then I learned that she is actually an Anglican (or other?) minister! That's terrible - we could end up with a biblically-guided leader if she were to ever (not that she could) take office. Religion and politics - yikes. More shades of the American system.
I'll be watching - perhaps this old blog will spring back to life again with another go around in a Canadian Electoral race.
My premise is/was that the plan for making the next election happen was orchestrated a few months back, and the pieces are still falling into place. Back in February, a new Kyoto law was passed as a private members bill. This law requires the government to set out their greenhouse gas remediation plan. Of course, they are having none of that, and that is what the opposition wants - force the government into a environmentally triggered non-confidence vote and an election scheduled shortly thereafter. This fits with all the opposition parties (except the Bloc) who are looking to fight this next race on the hot-button topic of the environment.
Yesterday was the deadline. I certainly didn't hear anything happen. It's a pretty sad day when laws passed by the house are ignored by the government. What ever happened to democracy. It seems as bad as the US where they do crazy things with their legislation. In that bastion of democracy, their president can just arbitrarily write in new stuff after a bill is passed. What a wacky world that is - "I just signed my employment contract, I think I'll write in a 100% raise, and a 6month paid vacation... there." What if we could work that way. I also heard something about an anonymous hold that can be put onto legislation there as well.
Anyway, we are seeing more of that US playbook in action here. Unfortunately the Liberal/NDP options are not very compelling currently. But either is better than the creepy Harper guy. Liz May and her greens initially sounded viable to me, but then I learned that she is actually an Anglican (or other?) minister! That's terrible - we could end up with a biblically-guided leader if she were to ever (not that she could) take office. Religion and politics - yikes. More shades of the American system.
I'll be watching - perhaps this old blog will spring back to life again with another go around in a Canadian Electoral race.
Tuesday
Visit Me Later...
Another election can't be more than six months away. While the current government has cozy secret meetings with American Far Right groups feeding them "great ideas" they try to keep most of their crazies quiet with a no-interviews policy and a firewall around their caucus.
This is not the Canada that Canadians want.
When the next election comes around, visit here at CanadianElection.blogspot.com (bookmark me now!) and you'll get my valuable insights into what's going on. Okay, not so much valuable as they are thoughtful.
Without any party loyalties, you get a point of view that supports elements from across the political spectrum - well, okay not from the gun-toting, bible thumping, anti foreigner wacko side.
See ya before the writ hits the floor!
This is not the Canada that Canadians want.
When the next election comes around, visit here at CanadianElection.blogspot.com (bookmark me now!) and you'll get my valuable insights into what's going on. Okay, not so much valuable as they are thoughtful.
Without any party loyalties, you get a point of view that supports elements from across the political spectrum - well, okay not from the gun-toting, bible thumping, anti foreigner wacko side.
See ya before the writ hits the floor!
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