Well, a day has passed since the election, and while we're still in a quiet period, it's pretty tough to get away from the constant analysis, only about 5% of which is of any constructive interest.
There's the to-be-expected talk about successors to Paul Martin, and a general agreement across the political spectrum that his consolation speech was pretty classy and strategically well timed. He's avoided a long drawn out process towards launching a new leadership campaign by withdrawing right away.
I was pondering when the Conservatives will haul out their country destroying ideas. Initially I thought, they will likely beleive that they can rule the world, and so will wait for a few months to "solidify" their base then start hauling out social conservative moves. Replacing judges, reversing basic human rights, cancelling rehabilitation while wondering why the prisons are filling up with recitivists. I realized that they might go for another approach, which is to capitalize on the disarray of the Liberals, and ram their nasty policies through immediately. That would satisfy their most red-neck supporters, and the house would be hesitant to bring down the government without a viable Liberal leader. The other parties would also worry about the populace being unhappy with the expense of another quick election.
A scary thought, as it is tantamount to holding the country hostage to radical legislation.
You can Run...
To get away from the constant election talk on the radio, I switched to BBC World News feeds, and re-broadcast it to my down-stairs radios to listen during lunch. Just my luck, they decide to talk about the Canadian election, and interview Ottawa's most right-wing crazy talk show host. This twit then goes on about how the liberals were demanding that people "turn over their children to the government to be raised at the age of 2 years old" What an asshole.
Nothing like lying to the outside world and making Canada look like a totalitarian society. How he could twist increasing subsidies for child care into that, I don't know.
So, despite my best efforts to avoid election talk, my run to BBC didn't work. I've since switched to NPR. It's pretty guaranteed that US radio won't talk about Canada.
A final word about Ottawa Centre: Turned out to be 66,000 Votes, with the finishing order of Dewar(NDP) taking it, followed by Liberals, CPC, Greens and the rest. Suprised there wasn't more Green support, but still taking 10% of the votes isn't too bad I guess. Dewar won with 37% of the vote.
Adieu until the next election
So, in the interest of letting this sit, I think I'll abandon this feed until the next go-around. I'm guessing it will be, at earliest, autumn 2006 and at latest early summer 2007. Lets hope the fabric of our society can hold it together until then.
Signing off...
Wednesday
Monday
Election Night
Okay, so now the clock ticker on the bottom of the screen has zeroed out. I've pulled my laptop down from my office, and watching the TV I'll update anyone who's following (as if anyone is).
Short Snappers
These notes will be updated through the evening, even though it looks like a continuous blog entry.
First results come in from the east coast. They are talking to Peter MacKay in the east, (declared elected), which made me think - this guy has been totally invisible during the entire election!! I've not heard his name mentioned even once during the whole campaign. Anyway, Mackay and the liberal (former PC) Scott Bryson has also been elected.
More results to come, but early going, and it's Liberals leading 24 to 11 to 5 for NDP and a single BQ are the numbers for elected and leading.
Any Americans out there? Unfortunately I'm guessing there is absolutely zero coverage on the entire US cable universe. Too bad... as bad as our Parliamentary system is - it's way better than the US system. It would be nice if you could see REAL democracy in action. Yes, democracy where there are no election irregularities. No ridings (ie electoral districts) where there are more votes cast than voters. No weird machine breakdowns that toss out all the black voters ballots.
Okay - just a little gloating there that the 'bastion of democracy' to the south is so unaware of what's happening with their near biggest economic partner so near to millions of their citizens.
More as it happens
TV Coverage - Sucking Spectacularly
Okay, so finally the results are rolling in, and we're seeing numbers for various ridings here and there. The CBC is showing the lineup of photos of candidates for various ridings and their current scores. BUT THEY DON"T INDICATE WHO THE INCUMBANT IS! What idiots. Isn't that kind of an obvious bit of info we want to know?!!?
Looks like CTV has a little MP on the face that is the encumbant, though I didn't notice it right away.
Okay, even global, the crazy right wing biased channel, has little [i] symbols to indicate incumbant.
Oshawa Swings ?
Hey ho - it looks like Sid Ryan is taking Oshawa? Ha - toasting that Carrie guy. Heard an all-candidates session and Ryan (though a union guy) sounded much more canny than the Carrie guy. Glad to see it swing away from the incumbent loser guy.
Later... Carrie managed to take it afterall. So much for voting based on candidate intelligence. (...and I'm NOT an NDP supporter).
So far it looks strangely like the polls were off, but it's so early who can say.
Scratch that, the share of the vote is still favouring the liberals at 35%lib to 38%CPC to 22%NDP for NDP. But thats the popular vote. The elected or leading numbers are showing 93CPC 80Lib, 37BQ 20NDP 1 OTHER
And, everyone seems to be already saying PC minority. So far so good.
Say It Ain't So
Okay, so all the stations are calling it a CPC (oops I said PC earlier - that "P" has long been lost. Perhaps an "R' would be more approriate ie regressive. Anyway. I heard Bernhard Lord just use the words "Prime minister Harper". What a scary thought.
Oh well - I'm expecting Martin is now out, Probably John Manley will take the leadership, and we'll have another vote perhaps in June or August and then Harper will be gone. I just wonder what sort of a mess we'll be left with in the meantime.
Global Television Conservative Sycophants
Watching a bit of Global - holy frothing conservative suck-ups! They've got these pundits just grinning and claiming that there will be a conservative majority within the year. They're just going on and on about this valhalla that they think they've stumbled into.
It's amazing how out of tune with reality they are. They claim as well that the liberals will be in a 5 year disoriented fratracide session. Man - they are drinking their own kool-aid.
Every riding that isn't a conservative win, they are saying "it's still early, and too close to call", but when it's a conservative lead, they just say "oh yeah, they've won it."
Gotta change the channel - what a bunch of biased suck ups.
NDP Gains, and Greens on the Radar
The popular vote is looking strong for the NDP. Even Olivia Chow is leading in her riding. I think the historic highs for the NDP were 43 seats under Ed Broadbent.
The Greens are leading in a BC riding. THis will be cool to watch. I've seen squat on Ottawa centre to see how the split is going, but I assume Dewar is leading the pack... but I've got nothing to go on there yet.
Good to see Tony Clement is not getting any traction in his on-going bid to get into federal politics. The stink of the Harris provincial government must still be in his laundry.
Hey, there's an independent in Churchill Manitoba still leading. I can't recall seeing anyone ever being elected as an independent in a general election in my lifetime.
Other breaking news, Belinda Stronach has won her riding!
Wha-hoo! Peter Kent has also lost his riding. Ha! He seems like such a dozy goof - glad to see no progress there.
Ken Dryden, my childhood hero has held onto his riding. What politics has to do with goal-tending I don't know, but glad to see him holding on.
Paul Martin has held onto his riding, and (drat) so has MacCallum.
Oh yeah, been meaning to say this during all my blogs, but my least favourite government folk are MacCallum, Pettigrew, and Graham. I'll be happy to see all three no longer in any position.
Interestingly, the numbers on the screen are now showing a green elected or leading, and an other elected or leading!! What an interesting election this one hs turned out to be.
Balance of Power
SO the intersting thing to be resolved so far, is will the NDP hold the balance of power. 102 liberal, and 30 for NDP against the 121 of the PC so far. Now this isn't a done deal yet, with lots of data to come in still. But if the Lib + NDP total is greater than the CPC, then that will be great, as they can trash the CPC quickly when the timing is right... without having to rely on the Bloc to do the deed. Of course, a deal with the devil is possible there. Conservatives and Bloc working together - I wouldn't put it past them.
Finally, Ottawa Centre
Okay, so finally saw that Dewar is taking Ottawa Centre. The CBC not showing the Green numbers strangely. Typical ignoramuses.
Oh- hey figured out that there is an (x) to indicate the incumbant. Not the most obvious indication. I assumed (X) meant leading, as there is coincidence there. Why is it not an (I), one might well ask.
Hold the Phones
What - Tony Clement seems to be winning by about 5 votes! What a wacky switch this is. At least there is an automatic re-count to be had in this case, no doubt. I beleive Elections Canada does one of those when the margin is slim. Will be nice to see him lose if he does.
Also, the other Harris Ontario PC Jim Flaherty seems to have his riding awarded to him. More Harris stink for the country - and speculation that he's got possibilities for the finance minister
Ralph Goodale won his riding. He's pretty eloquant and humble in the face of his voters. I don't beleive there was a leak of any Income Trust policy changes, so that whole ruse was a wash anyway for him, I guess. It's unfortunate that the media went all feeding frenzy on his ass. I'm not much of a fan of the guy normally, but he seems to have a bit of 'humbility'.
Sounds like there is an independent in Quebec - some radio talk-show host. Not sure what that's about, as there's only one independent shown on the scoreboard. Alas, the Green number has dropped off the board. What of the Churchill independent?
My fear is that both the CPC and the Bloc are both unpalatable and ornery enough, that if they form an alliance, we'll be stuck with them, and they'll trash the country.
Hey, Olivia Chow has won her riding. This stinks a little bit of the family business thing that I typically think very little of, but we'll have to wait and see what she can do for her riding. I assume it won't be the same as the crazy husband and wife team (Grewals) caught up in the post-Stronach craziness. Sounds like Gurmant didn't run this time. Don't know about his remote-control wife. Perhaps he's running her only this time.
Later...Yes, his remote control wife Nina did win, and so Gurmant remains in power and incognito. Also, a reprimand from the ethics commissioner just released should ensure he stays in the background somewhat. Wonder if he'll steal his wifes clothes and show up in the house anyway?
Final View, Before Calling it a Night
So I fear that a few weeks from now, the grizzyly right wing true colours will start to show their ugly face.
Ha - some pseudo-journalist is talking to Belinda, suggesting that the leadership of the liberals is in her future! What a joke, as if she'd even have a modicum of support for the position. What a joke. Speaking of Jokes...
Stockwell Day won his riding in Okanagan! This should be good for a laugh - what will they do with him? It would be hilarious to see him as a cabinet minister. What a crock this government is going to be.
Just making a final dent in a bottle of Lot 88 Cabernet Shiraz. A nice drink from Australia that has got me through a nice steak dinner, and through a full evening of election returns.
It's looking now like the following split:
122 CPC; 106Lib; 50BQ, 30NDP, 1IND.
So, gladly the NDP looks like they have a good hold on the balance of power, but of course an alliance between the CPC and the Bloc is more than the Liberals and NDP. So we'll have to see what sort of deal with the devil the CPC will make. With that - I'll take my leave. Unfortunately, the Greens sound like they're out of it for the night. Perhaps next time. I'm glad I could throw a vote their way on a whim, and not risk our riding going in a wacky direction.
Short Snappers
These notes will be updated through the evening, even though it looks like a continuous blog entry.
First results come in from the east coast. They are talking to Peter MacKay in the east, (declared elected), which made me think - this guy has been totally invisible during the entire election!! I've not heard his name mentioned even once during the whole campaign. Anyway, Mackay and the liberal (former PC) Scott Bryson has also been elected.
More results to come, but early going, and it's Liberals leading 24 to 11 to 5 for NDP and a single BQ are the numbers for elected and leading.
Any Americans out there? Unfortunately I'm guessing there is absolutely zero coverage on the entire US cable universe. Too bad... as bad as our Parliamentary system is - it's way better than the US system. It would be nice if you could see REAL democracy in action. Yes, democracy where there are no election irregularities. No ridings (ie electoral districts) where there are more votes cast than voters. No weird machine breakdowns that toss out all the black voters ballots.
Okay - just a little gloating there that the 'bastion of democracy' to the south is so unaware of what's happening with their near biggest economic partner so near to millions of their citizens.
More as it happens
TV Coverage - Sucking Spectacularly
Okay, so finally the results are rolling in, and we're seeing numbers for various ridings here and there. The CBC is showing the lineup of photos of candidates for various ridings and their current scores. BUT THEY DON"T INDICATE WHO THE INCUMBANT IS! What idiots. Isn't that kind of an obvious bit of info we want to know?!!?
Looks like CTV has a little MP on the face that is the encumbant, though I didn't notice it right away.
Okay, even global, the crazy right wing biased channel, has little [i] symbols to indicate incumbant.
Oshawa Swings ?
Hey ho - it looks like Sid Ryan is taking Oshawa? Ha - toasting that Carrie guy. Heard an all-candidates session and Ryan (though a union guy) sounded much more canny than the Carrie guy. Glad to see it swing away from the incumbent loser guy.
Later... Carrie managed to take it afterall. So much for voting based on candidate intelligence. (...and I'm NOT an NDP supporter).
So far it looks strangely like the polls were off, but it's so early who can say.
Scratch that, the share of the vote is still favouring the liberals at 35%lib to 38%CPC to 22%NDP for NDP. But thats the popular vote. The elected or leading numbers are showing 93CPC 80Lib, 37BQ 20NDP 1 OTHER
And, everyone seems to be already saying PC minority. So far so good.
Say It Ain't So
Okay, so all the stations are calling it a CPC (oops I said PC earlier - that "P" has long been lost. Perhaps an "R' would be more approriate ie regressive. Anyway. I heard Bernhard Lord just use the words "Prime minister Harper". What a scary thought.
Oh well - I'm expecting Martin is now out, Probably John Manley will take the leadership, and we'll have another vote perhaps in June or August and then Harper will be gone. I just wonder what sort of a mess we'll be left with in the meantime.
Global Television Conservative Sycophants
Watching a bit of Global - holy frothing conservative suck-ups! They've got these pundits just grinning and claiming that there will be a conservative majority within the year. They're just going on and on about this valhalla that they think they've stumbled into.
It's amazing how out of tune with reality they are. They claim as well that the liberals will be in a 5 year disoriented fratracide session. Man - they are drinking their own kool-aid.
Every riding that isn't a conservative win, they are saying "it's still early, and too close to call", but when it's a conservative lead, they just say "oh yeah, they've won it."
Gotta change the channel - what a bunch of biased suck ups.
NDP Gains, and Greens on the Radar
The popular vote is looking strong for the NDP. Even Olivia Chow is leading in her riding. I think the historic highs for the NDP were 43 seats under Ed Broadbent.
The Greens are leading in a BC riding. THis will be cool to watch. I've seen squat on Ottawa centre to see how the split is going, but I assume Dewar is leading the pack... but I've got nothing to go on there yet.
Good to see Tony Clement is not getting any traction in his on-going bid to get into federal politics. The stink of the Harris provincial government must still be in his laundry.
Hey, there's an independent in Churchill Manitoba still leading. I can't recall seeing anyone ever being elected as an independent in a general election in my lifetime.
Other breaking news, Belinda Stronach has won her riding!
Wha-hoo! Peter Kent has also lost his riding. Ha! He seems like such a dozy goof - glad to see no progress there.
Ken Dryden, my childhood hero has held onto his riding. What politics has to do with goal-tending I don't know, but glad to see him holding on.
Paul Martin has held onto his riding, and (drat) so has MacCallum.
Oh yeah, been meaning to say this during all my blogs, but my least favourite government folk are MacCallum, Pettigrew, and Graham. I'll be happy to see all three no longer in any position.
Interestingly, the numbers on the screen are now showing a green elected or leading, and an other elected or leading!! What an interesting election this one hs turned out to be.
Balance of Power
SO the intersting thing to be resolved so far, is will the NDP hold the balance of power. 102 liberal, and 30 for NDP against the 121 of the PC so far. Now this isn't a done deal yet, with lots of data to come in still. But if the Lib + NDP total is greater than the CPC, then that will be great, as they can trash the CPC quickly when the timing is right... without having to rely on the Bloc to do the deed. Of course, a deal with the devil is possible there. Conservatives and Bloc working together - I wouldn't put it past them.
Finally, Ottawa Centre
Okay, so finally saw that Dewar is taking Ottawa Centre. The CBC not showing the Green numbers strangely. Typical ignoramuses.
Oh- hey figured out that there is an (x) to indicate the incumbant. Not the most obvious indication. I assumed (X) meant leading, as there is coincidence there. Why is it not an (I), one might well ask.
Hold the Phones
What - Tony Clement seems to be winning by about 5 votes! What a wacky switch this is. At least there is an automatic re-count to be had in this case, no doubt. I beleive Elections Canada does one of those when the margin is slim. Will be nice to see him lose if he does.
Also, the other Harris Ontario PC Jim Flaherty seems to have his riding awarded to him. More Harris stink for the country - and speculation that he's got possibilities for the finance minister
Ralph Goodale won his riding. He's pretty eloquant and humble in the face of his voters. I don't beleive there was a leak of any Income Trust policy changes, so that whole ruse was a wash anyway for him, I guess. It's unfortunate that the media went all feeding frenzy on his ass. I'm not much of a fan of the guy normally, but he seems to have a bit of 'humbility'.
Sounds like there is an independent in Quebec - some radio talk-show host. Not sure what that's about, as there's only one independent shown on the scoreboard. Alas, the Green number has dropped off the board. What of the Churchill independent?
My fear is that both the CPC and the Bloc are both unpalatable and ornery enough, that if they form an alliance, we'll be stuck with them, and they'll trash the country.
Hey, Olivia Chow has won her riding. This stinks a little bit of the family business thing that I typically think very little of, but we'll have to wait and see what she can do for her riding. I assume it won't be the same as the crazy husband and wife team (Grewals) caught up in the post-Stronach craziness. Sounds like Gurmant didn't run this time. Don't know about his remote-control wife. Perhaps he's running her only this time.
Later...Yes, his remote control wife Nina did win, and so Gurmant remains in power and incognito. Also, a reprimand from the ethics commissioner just released should ensure he stays in the background somewhat. Wonder if he'll steal his wifes clothes and show up in the house anyway?
Final View, Before Calling it a Night
So I fear that a few weeks from now, the grizzyly right wing true colours will start to show their ugly face.
Ha - some pseudo-journalist is talking to Belinda, suggesting that the leadership of the liberals is in her future! What a joke, as if she'd even have a modicum of support for the position. What a joke. Speaking of Jokes...
Stockwell Day won his riding in Okanagan! This should be good for a laugh - what will they do with him? It would be hilarious to see him as a cabinet minister. What a crock this government is going to be.
Just making a final dent in a bottle of Lot 88 Cabernet Shiraz. A nice drink from Australia that has got me through a nice steak dinner, and through a full evening of election returns.
It's looking now like the following split:
122 CPC; 106Lib; 50BQ, 30NDP, 1IND.
So, gladly the NDP looks like they have a good hold on the balance of power, but of course an alliance between the CPC and the Bloc is more than the Liberals and NDP. So we'll have to see what sort of deal with the devil the CPC will make. With that - I'll take my leave. Unfortunately, the Greens sound like they're out of it for the night. Perhaps next time. I'm glad I could throw a vote their way on a whim, and not risk our riding going in a wacky direction.
Sunday
Settling Marbles
With less than 24 hours remaining until the polls open, the other polls - the opinion polls are purported to be showing some withdrawl from the Conservatives and movement back to the liberals, perhaps at the expense of NDP as well. This according to a pretty good article from the New York Times. More on the International perspective below.
Here's a pretty good site providing forecasting of the seat split. Check out democraticSpace which also seems to show the turn back from a Conservative majority, and a jump in Liberal party fortunes suggesting 127 seats for CPC and 97 for Liberals. The other prediction site previously mentioned has the CPC at less that 120. If the current trend accellerates, we might get closer to my desired outcome, a very, very slim edge for the CPC over the liberals, which will turf out Martin, and ensure the CPC collapses quickly to establish a more centreist government under someone else. Another minority under a new Liberal government with a coalition would be good for making progress on the hill.
People are settling on their decisions now, as we go into supper time gradually across the country, and tomorrow people will mark their ballots and have to live with the outcome that will roll in in the late hours of the evening on monday.
Unfortunately, I never saw an organized 'anyone but the conservatives' campaign muster anywhere, but I get the sense of a deep-rooted visceral rejection of their position among a broad demographic across the country as I watch town-hall type meetings, and listen to phone in content. I worry that the CPC strategy of not saying much (don't disclose the true agenda) and muzzling actual MP candidates will actually work for the less sophisticated voters. A sad comment on the CPC party. I worry about what it means for our country.
The International Read
I think there's a pretty good perspective to be had by tuning in to what journalists with the benefit of some distance say about the race. So here's a round-up of stuff I can find at various reputable media sites. Of course there are biases, but I think the distance provides somewhat of a filter, for better or worse.
The New York Times article on the pending vote.
The Independent has an interesting article that perhaps comes to conclusions a bit too fast. On the positive side, it is speaking to a parliamentary-system-literate audience which allows it to get into a bit more depth than the NYTimes article, and picks up both on Martins' awkwarly run campaign, and on Harper's "North European" slight pretty quickly. It's got a weird perspective on Ignatief in Toronto, painting him as the heir apparent for the Liberal party after Martin gets bumped following an election loss. I guess he's known to Britons from a BBC2 tenure of some kind.
New Zealand's Herald has an article picked up on Friday from Reuters that takes a bit of a different tack. (It's great to see all these different spins!) This article focusses more on the encumbant Liberals fight to the finish, a CPAC poll dividing the race at 37 to 31% in favour of the CPC's and takes Harper's comments about 'not addressing abortion in the near term' at face value, without pointing out the criticisms about skirting any issues that would expose the socially conservative and ugly underbelly of their hidden agenda.
Australia's Sydney Morning Herald has an article about Bon Jovi's plane slipping off the runway in Hamilton, but nothing about the Canadian election recently. The paper seems a bit of a rag based on the focus of the bulk of their articles (lots of hollywood) - plus their page is pretty heavy, and slow loading.
Australia's Daily Telegraph has quite a good article, covering issues, other parties and with a pretty balanced approach. Heck, they even use the word 'extremist' near Harper's name. Nice to see some recognition of that criticsm, while still putting his view forward.
The LATimes has the barest minimum of an article. To it's credit, it does give a great overview of the numbers involved, in terms of seats and the mechanics of the government. But it's got that typical American audience need for an explanation about parliamentary democracy. It covers all the issues in two short sentences. Not quite the coverage you'd expect a major city to have for their country's largest trading partner (or second now apparently) going to the polls! Typical myopia.
Record Turnout Expected
It should be interesting to see the turn-out numbers. I'm expecting more than 60,000 votes cast in our riding of Ottawa Centre. It will also be interesting to watch the overall numbers. My sense is that the extra effort seen in attending advance polls will manifest itself in strongly higher numbers on election day as well.
The liberals probably have the most to gain from this, although I get the feeling that the other left-leaning parties may as well benefit. But what do I know - I think I get a skewed view of the world from the confines of my left-leaning riding. Then again, there is a large pro-green display in the window of a prominent 'yoga clothing' store in Westboro. It attempts to show the Greens as the only viable choice, and highlight an issue with each of the other three parties. They seemed to be a bit weak on what to criticize for the NDP, colouring them as pot-heads! That's a weird one... I think they're mixing them up with the marajuana party. And what more pot-head group can you find than a store for yoga clothing!
Here's a pretty good site providing forecasting of the seat split. Check out democraticSpace which also seems to show the turn back from a Conservative majority, and a jump in Liberal party fortunes suggesting 127 seats for CPC and 97 for Liberals. The other prediction site previously mentioned has the CPC at less that 120. If the current trend accellerates, we might get closer to my desired outcome, a very, very slim edge for the CPC over the liberals, which will turf out Martin, and ensure the CPC collapses quickly to establish a more centreist government under someone else. Another minority under a new Liberal government with a coalition would be good for making progress on the hill.
People are settling on their decisions now, as we go into supper time gradually across the country, and tomorrow people will mark their ballots and have to live with the outcome that will roll in in the late hours of the evening on monday.
Unfortunately, I never saw an organized 'anyone but the conservatives' campaign muster anywhere, but I get the sense of a deep-rooted visceral rejection of their position among a broad demographic across the country as I watch town-hall type meetings, and listen to phone in content. I worry that the CPC strategy of not saying much (don't disclose the true agenda) and muzzling actual MP candidates will actually work for the less sophisticated voters. A sad comment on the CPC party. I worry about what it means for our country.
The International Read
I think there's a pretty good perspective to be had by tuning in to what journalists with the benefit of some distance say about the race. So here's a round-up of stuff I can find at various reputable media sites. Of course there are biases, but I think the distance provides somewhat of a filter, for better or worse.
The New York Times article on the pending vote.
The Independent has an interesting article that perhaps comes to conclusions a bit too fast. On the positive side, it is speaking to a parliamentary-system-literate audience which allows it to get into a bit more depth than the NYTimes article, and picks up both on Martins' awkwarly run campaign, and on Harper's "North European" slight pretty quickly. It's got a weird perspective on Ignatief in Toronto, painting him as the heir apparent for the Liberal party after Martin gets bumped following an election loss. I guess he's known to Britons from a BBC2 tenure of some kind.
New Zealand's Herald has an article picked up on Friday from Reuters that takes a bit of a different tack. (It's great to see all these different spins!) This article focusses more on the encumbant Liberals fight to the finish, a CPAC poll dividing the race at 37 to 31% in favour of the CPC's and takes Harper's comments about 'not addressing abortion in the near term' at face value, without pointing out the criticisms about skirting any issues that would expose the socially conservative and ugly underbelly of their hidden agenda.
Australia's Sydney Morning Herald has an article about Bon Jovi's plane slipping off the runway in Hamilton, but nothing about the Canadian election recently. The paper seems a bit of a rag based on the focus of the bulk of their articles (lots of hollywood) - plus their page is pretty heavy, and slow loading.
Australia's Daily Telegraph has quite a good article, covering issues, other parties and with a pretty balanced approach. Heck, they even use the word 'extremist' near Harper's name. Nice to see some recognition of that criticsm, while still putting his view forward.
The LATimes has the barest minimum of an article. To it's credit, it does give a great overview of the numbers involved, in terms of seats and the mechanics of the government. But it's got that typical American audience need for an explanation about parliamentary democracy. It covers all the issues in two short sentences. Not quite the coverage you'd expect a major city to have for their country's largest trading partner (or second now apparently) going to the polls! Typical myopia.
Record Turnout Expected
It should be interesting to see the turn-out numbers. I'm expecting more than 60,000 votes cast in our riding of Ottawa Centre. It will also be interesting to watch the overall numbers. My sense is that the extra effort seen in attending advance polls will manifest itself in strongly higher numbers on election day as well.
The liberals probably have the most to gain from this, although I get the feeling that the other left-leaning parties may as well benefit. But what do I know - I think I get a skewed view of the world from the confines of my left-leaning riding. Then again, there is a large pro-green display in the window of a prominent 'yoga clothing' store in Westboro. It attempts to show the Greens as the only viable choice, and highlight an issue with each of the other three parties. They seemed to be a bit weak on what to criticize for the NDP, colouring them as pot-heads! That's a weird one... I think they're mixing them up with the marajuana party. And what more pot-head group can you find than a store for yoga clothing!
Thursday
Fear Week
Given that opinion polls might be a bit wonky, given the very high refusal rates and such, the numbers may have an unintended impact, in that voters are getting innundated with numbers that suggest a Conservative win, and perhaps a slim majority.
That's scary to alot of people - notwithstanding the inane attempts of the Liberals to capitalize on that with marginal ads - people are turning on their strategic voting calculators now.
How do you vote strategically? Part of it depends a lot on your particular riding. The biggest risk of strategic voting is splitting the vote on the wrong side of the equation. Now, given that the right is pretty well owned by the Conservatives, with the liberals dancing over the centre-line sometimes with conservative fiscal policy, we're pretty much talking about two camps here - the anyone-but-the-conservatives faction and conservatives.
Now, in Ottawa-Centre, a case in point. My perception is that the conservative candidate (who just run my phone with a taped message - what an annoying approach) is pretty far back. This riding has been NDP and Liberal for a long while. I perceive a tight 3-way race. If Mr Dewar for the NDP hauls out the "I have the same shoe size as Ed Broadbent" routine one more time, I think he'll lose the lead. Mr. Chernushenko for the the Green party may have a shot at being the first Green in Canada to get a seat. And the Liberal Guy who's name I'm trying to forget, is a weak third I'm guessing. But here, the voters on the centre and left of the spectrum can actually vote with their gut, rather than stategically. Since the conservatives may get about 5000-8000 tops out of 60,000 voters there's not much of an 'up the middle' strategy available for this Fountain character.
(Later... Post election the number turns out to be 66,000 voters!)
Broadbent won the riding last time with about 25k votes. I suspect the winner will be in the 18-20 range this time, but voting will undoubtably be much higher, hence my expectation that there will be in the range of 60k or more votes cast.
CBC Wakes Up
Compared to most media, I'm usually fairly satisfied with the CBC balance. They drift off towards the 23 year old pot smoker sometimes, but by and large they provide balance.
The last few weeks have been abyssmal though. They've let Harper's handlers drive their agenda. I can't beleive they led the news with a Harper story almost every edition. You think they'd say, gee, they're trying a ploy to manipulate us... but they haven't been very sophisticated at the production level. I mean, in the interest of balance, I'm sure they could look at lead-story allignment and make an effort to use something from one of the other campaigns occasionally. They're all doing 'stuff' every day.
At very least become more introspective and make the story "Harper's campaign continues the ploy to drive the nightly news through inane daily announcements" Why not do something like that?
CBC must realize that given a majority Conservative position, a lot of them are out of work. The station will be privatized. I wonder how they like producing telethon segments a la your closest PBS station instead of political coverage. "Operators are standing by. If you enjoy these incessant BBC mystery dramas set in the 70's, call now and donate". And "This hour has 22 Minutes" will sell squat on US Cable. Rick Mercer will just be a weird guy who talks funny, from "New Finland" to American audiences.
Well, anyway this morning on CBC radio Anna Maria Tremonte had a couple of great guests - the publisher of Harper's magazine in the US, Rick MacArthur, and a Conservative pundit, who writes for a variety of US right-leaning papers (and his name escapes me). It was a great bit. You can listen to it here: The Current Stream" Find the stream for Jan 19/06 and listen to the first segment (probably only available on the 20th or later).
A bit confusing that the liberally oriented magazine in the US should be called "Harper's" but whadaya-going to do? The gist of the conversation was that MacArthur lamented a Bush-suck-up leader, albeit probably not as extremist as bush, coming to power in Canada - beacon of sanity in the free world, and model for where Americans wished their country stood (his sentiments.) The conservative pundit next commented that Harper is a good start, but he's still way less conservative than they would like. To his credit, he commented that we have the stronger position on softwood lumber, and so Harper will be able to stand firm there.
MacArthur touched on a point that wasn't pursued - but one which I'm lamenting myself. He said that the merger between Reform and PC's resulted in a softening of the Reform agenda, unless they've just learned to market themselves better. Duh! This was further driven home by comments that Bush came to power as a Centerist "lets clean up those pesky, corrupt Democrats" candidate. This is the same thing all over again! Play moderate on the campaign trail, and disclose your true radical colours when in power.
I'm amazed how thin the veil is. Harper was even talking 'American Style' about our checks and balances in the Juciciary which he claims will still be Liberal for a long time due to appointments. What the hell is that? It sounds like a CNN soundbyte. Does he want to get our Senate to hold hearings for new Supreme Court judges? Man this stuff is scary. Does he think the judiciary is working some evil liberal agenda, rather than applying the laws according to our constitution?
Score One for Mansbridge
I was impressed that during an 'town-hall' style interview with Peter Mansbridge hosting, and talking to Jack Layton, they used some pointed questions. He put Layton on the spot to answer a few questions from audience members around which he was widely skirting. I liked how he particularly button holed him on the "Corruption" thing. There's no evidence of corruption of any of the liberal MP's, he pointed out, so why are you using the word "corruption" in your speeches and ads. Layton didn't have much of an answer, and tried to do the usual non-answer "I think that Turkish Cuisine is a particularly delicate balance of sweet and savory" "Yeah, but the question Mr. Layton"
Good Forecasting Site
So there we have it:
So to vote strategically, how do you know which way things are headed, without using the skewed opinion polls? Here's an option. This website gathers riding by riding opinions on which way the area is headed. Who better to estimate the direction than the people voting there. And they've been around long enough to have a track record, which is pretty good.
http://electionprediction.org/
Right now, it looks like a pretty good outcome to my thinking. 97CPC, 77Lib, 17NDP, 55Bloc and 66 too close to call. IF the split sticks that way it would be a minority at least. Althought an unscrupulous deal between Bloc and CPC isn't unlikely. But at least Martin would be dumped, and hopefully some vestiges of the Liberal divide between Martinites and Chretienites might be erased. Then there could be another election shortly after with a better outcome, including the dumping of Harper.
Ideal outcome would be something like 114CPC, 113Lib 32NDP, 3Green, 46Bloc
That would be great, some enviro pressure from Greens, Martin gone, strengthened NDP, and weakened Bloc. Another vote 6 months later, Harper gone.
I think this is one of those devil we don't know wishes.
That's scary to alot of people - notwithstanding the inane attempts of the Liberals to capitalize on that with marginal ads - people are turning on their strategic voting calculators now.
How do you vote strategically? Part of it depends a lot on your particular riding. The biggest risk of strategic voting is splitting the vote on the wrong side of the equation. Now, given that the right is pretty well owned by the Conservatives, with the liberals dancing over the centre-line sometimes with conservative fiscal policy, we're pretty much talking about two camps here - the anyone-but-the-conservatives faction and conservatives.
Now, in Ottawa-Centre, a case in point. My perception is that the conservative candidate (who just run my phone with a taped message - what an annoying approach) is pretty far back. This riding has been NDP and Liberal for a long while. I perceive a tight 3-way race. If Mr Dewar for the NDP hauls out the "I have the same shoe size as Ed Broadbent" routine one more time, I think he'll lose the lead. Mr. Chernushenko for the the Green party may have a shot at being the first Green in Canada to get a seat. And the Liberal Guy who's name I'm trying to forget, is a weak third I'm guessing. But here, the voters on the centre and left of the spectrum can actually vote with their gut, rather than stategically. Since the conservatives may get about 5000-8000 tops out of 60,000 voters there's not much of an 'up the middle' strategy available for this Fountain character.
(Later... Post election the number turns out to be 66,000 voters!)
Broadbent won the riding last time with about 25k votes. I suspect the winner will be in the 18-20 range this time, but voting will undoubtably be much higher, hence my expectation that there will be in the range of 60k or more votes cast.
CBC Wakes Up
Compared to most media, I'm usually fairly satisfied with the CBC balance. They drift off towards the 23 year old pot smoker sometimes, but by and large they provide balance.
The last few weeks have been abyssmal though. They've let Harper's handlers drive their agenda. I can't beleive they led the news with a Harper story almost every edition. You think they'd say, gee, they're trying a ploy to manipulate us... but they haven't been very sophisticated at the production level. I mean, in the interest of balance, I'm sure they could look at lead-story allignment and make an effort to use something from one of the other campaigns occasionally. They're all doing 'stuff' every day.
At very least become more introspective and make the story "Harper's campaign continues the ploy to drive the nightly news through inane daily announcements" Why not do something like that?
CBC must realize that given a majority Conservative position, a lot of them are out of work. The station will be privatized. I wonder how they like producing telethon segments a la your closest PBS station instead of political coverage. "Operators are standing by. If you enjoy these incessant BBC mystery dramas set in the 70's, call now and donate". And "This hour has 22 Minutes" will sell squat on US Cable. Rick Mercer will just be a weird guy who talks funny, from "New Finland" to American audiences.
Well, anyway this morning on CBC radio Anna Maria Tremonte had a couple of great guests - the publisher of Harper's magazine in the US, Rick MacArthur, and a Conservative pundit, who writes for a variety of US right-leaning papers (and his name escapes me). It was a great bit. You can listen to it here: The Current Stream" Find the stream for Jan 19/06 and listen to the first segment (probably only available on the 20th or later).
A bit confusing that the liberally oriented magazine in the US should be called "Harper's" but whadaya-going to do? The gist of the conversation was that MacArthur lamented a Bush-suck-up leader, albeit probably not as extremist as bush, coming to power in Canada - beacon of sanity in the free world, and model for where Americans wished their country stood (his sentiments.) The conservative pundit next commented that Harper is a good start, but he's still way less conservative than they would like. To his credit, he commented that we have the stronger position on softwood lumber, and so Harper will be able to stand firm there.
MacArthur touched on a point that wasn't pursued - but one which I'm lamenting myself. He said that the merger between Reform and PC's resulted in a softening of the Reform agenda, unless they've just learned to market themselves better. Duh! This was further driven home by comments that Bush came to power as a Centerist "lets clean up those pesky, corrupt Democrats" candidate. This is the same thing all over again! Play moderate on the campaign trail, and disclose your true radical colours when in power.
I'm amazed how thin the veil is. Harper was even talking 'American Style' about our checks and balances in the Juciciary which he claims will still be Liberal for a long time due to appointments. What the hell is that? It sounds like a CNN soundbyte. Does he want to get our Senate to hold hearings for new Supreme Court judges? Man this stuff is scary. Does he think the judiciary is working some evil liberal agenda, rather than applying the laws according to our constitution?
Score One for Mansbridge
I was impressed that during an 'town-hall' style interview with Peter Mansbridge hosting, and talking to Jack Layton, they used some pointed questions. He put Layton on the spot to answer a few questions from audience members around which he was widely skirting. I liked how he particularly button holed him on the "Corruption" thing. There's no evidence of corruption of any of the liberal MP's, he pointed out, so why are you using the word "corruption" in your speeches and ads. Layton didn't have much of an answer, and tried to do the usual non-answer "I think that Turkish Cuisine is a particularly delicate balance of sweet and savory" "Yeah, but the question Mr. Layton"
Good Forecasting Site
So there we have it:
- Conservatives hidden right wing agenda to gut our country and 'erase' the Canada/US border
- Liberals still recovering from the Martin/Chretien coup attempts and unable to run a campaign, and doing a half-assed job of governing
- NDP, wrapped up in political double speak, and ignoring Conservative ridings and criticism
- Greens, a bit of a flakey core to their platform, and no only the slimmest chance of electing a single MP
- Bloc, irrelevant to everyone, including about 60% of Quebecers
So to vote strategically, how do you know which way things are headed, without using the skewed opinion polls? Here's an option. This website gathers riding by riding opinions on which way the area is headed. Who better to estimate the direction than the people voting there. And they've been around long enough to have a track record, which is pretty good.
http://electionprediction.org/
Right now, it looks like a pretty good outcome to my thinking. 97CPC, 77Lib, 17NDP, 55Bloc and 66 too close to call. IF the split sticks that way it would be a minority at least. Althought an unscrupulous deal between Bloc and CPC isn't unlikely. But at least Martin would be dumped, and hopefully some vestiges of the Liberal divide between Martinites and Chretienites might be erased. Then there could be another election shortly after with a better outcome, including the dumping of Harper.
Ideal outcome would be something like 114CPC, 113Lib 32NDP, 3Green, 46Bloc
That would be great, some enviro pressure from Greens, Martin gone, strengthened NDP, and weakened Bloc. Another vote 6 months later, Harper gone.
I think this is one of those devil we don't know wishes.
Tuesday
Are the Polls Accurate?
There sure has been a change in the polls, according to all the media sources. I always feel a the dirt oozing out of the press this time in an election campaign as certain media sources switch from simple bias to outright support of a party. Newspapers seem particularly bad for this. But anyway, that's just me.
On another note - here are things I wish the media would repeat more often - just simple facts, no bias required:
Some stuff the Liberals should say (if they were running a better campaign).
Okay so that last they could never say, but I'm sure it's true
I've actually voted already - in Ottawa Centre - because my SO is going to be away on election day. As we went to the advanced poll, I figured I may as well vote then too.
I might have voted differently if I was to do it again today. Heard some decent interviews with Jack Layton, and figured he might be a decent choice. He talked about some of my favourite topics all around electoral reform. Namely - popular vote versus results and women in parliament.
I wish that someone could get a good vote for anyone-but-the-conservatives campaign going. I'm frightened we've got our on US experience about to start, with a religious right agenda sullying our government. Code words are flying around to hide the real words like intollerance, racism, destroying our national identity, erasing the Canada/US border, and eroding our social programs, health care principals and generally taking us back in a regressive regime.
C'mon people look at your ridings and choose anyone but them. Just think... Stockwell Day as our Foreign Affairs Minister.
On another note - here are things I wish the media would repeat more often - just simple facts, no bias required:
- The "Conservatives" are the Reform and PC's combined, with many PC's having bailed out.
- Stockwell Day would presumably be the new Minister of External Affairs
- Polls are not very accurate anymore, as many people have cell phones, and refusal rates are very high.
Some stuff the Liberals should say (if they were running a better campaign).
- Canada has the only surplus in the G8, and we're leading western nations in growth. If you want change, how exactly would you like those numbers to change?
- There was not $200Million in lost money in the sponsorship scam - most of that went into spending on programs. There were a few millions stolen, but a bunch has been recovered.
- Chuck Guité practiced his craft in under the conservatives & Mulroney
- The sponsorship scam is not a bunch of crooked liberals - it's a bunch of crooked Quebec politicians and their cronies. There are probably just as many in among the other parties in that same circle of Montreal elitist politics & business types. BC is another hotbed of crooked politicians typically. And there are more peppered about the country. There are likely more in the Conservatives, fewer in the NDP - and the tree-hugging Greens are probably mostly clean.
Okay so that last they could never say, but I'm sure it's true
I've actually voted already - in Ottawa Centre - because my SO is going to be away on election day. As we went to the advanced poll, I figured I may as well vote then too.
I might have voted differently if I was to do it again today. Heard some decent interviews with Jack Layton, and figured he might be a decent choice. He talked about some of my favourite topics all around electoral reform. Namely - popular vote versus results and women in parliament.
I wish that someone could get a good vote for anyone-but-the-conservatives campaign going. I'm frightened we've got our on US experience about to start, with a religious right agenda sullying our government. Code words are flying around to hide the real words like intollerance, racism, destroying our national identity, erasing the Canada/US border, and eroding our social programs, health care principals and generally taking us back in a regressive regime.
C'mon people look at your ridings and choose anyone but them. Just think... Stockwell Day as our Foreign Affairs Minister.
Saturday
Returning to Canada to Find A Mess
Okay, right after New Years, I went off on a business trip to the US, and getting back into the saddle on the 11th of January, the whole landscape has changed.
I was wondering why the media was so happy to play along with the "Conservative" spin leading into Christmas: always leading with the Harper daily announcement, and it's imploded on itself now. All the coverage seems to be based on whatever the Conservative spinners are delivering and nobody is analyzing the spin from the fact. Must be that the CBC at least is run by 20-year-old ingenues who don't have enough life experience to detect when they are being spun.
It appears that they are all predicting a conservative win now. The scary part about predicting a minority is that voters think - "oh, I'm contributing to the minority, which is a good thing, rather than a majority - yikes." But when everyone does that, you get a majority anyway - case-in-point: the NDP Ontario government of a couple of decades back.
The worst bit of Journalism I've seen is the media coverage of the Liberal "Soldiers with Guns" ad - there was a clearly staged Conservative old-timer soldier protest, and the coverage of it was "here's a protest - soldiers are outraged" not - "The conservatives set up this lame protest"
And nobody is pointing out that the "Conservatives" are not the conservatives... but rather a bunch of Reformers in Sheeps' clothing.
The only thing scarier than a fascist party is a fascist party that has learned to dress themselves up as acceptable moderates. When they realize that it works, and people forget what they were 15 minutes ago, they get these weird grins of delight.
More on the rest of the campaign later.
I was wondering why the media was so happy to play along with the "Conservative" spin leading into Christmas: always leading with the Harper daily announcement, and it's imploded on itself now. All the coverage seems to be based on whatever the Conservative spinners are delivering and nobody is analyzing the spin from the fact. Must be that the CBC at least is run by 20-year-old ingenues who don't have enough life experience to detect when they are being spun.
It appears that they are all predicting a conservative win now. The scary part about predicting a minority is that voters think - "oh, I'm contributing to the minority, which is a good thing, rather than a majority - yikes." But when everyone does that, you get a majority anyway - case-in-point: the NDP Ontario government of a couple of decades back.
The worst bit of Journalism I've seen is the media coverage of the Liberal "Soldiers with Guns" ad - there was a clearly staged Conservative old-timer soldier protest, and the coverage of it was "here's a protest - soldiers are outraged" not - "The conservatives set up this lame protest"
And nobody is pointing out that the "Conservatives" are not the conservatives... but rather a bunch of Reformers in Sheeps' clothing.
The only thing scarier than a fascist party is a fascist party that has learned to dress themselves up as acceptable moderates. When they realize that it works, and people forget what they were 15 minutes ago, they get these weird grins of delight.
More on the rest of the campaign later.
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