Settling Marbles

With less than 24 hours remaining until the polls open, the other polls - the opinion polls are purported to be showing some withdrawl from the Conservatives and movement back to the liberals, perhaps at the expense of NDP as well. This according to a pretty good article from the New York Times. More on the International perspective below.

Here's a pretty good site providing forecasting of the seat split. Check out democraticSpace which also seems to show the turn back from a Conservative majority, and a jump in Liberal party fortunes suggesting 127 seats for CPC and 97 for Liberals. The other prediction site previously mentioned has the CPC at less that 120. If the current trend accellerates, we might get closer to my desired outcome, a very, very slim edge for the CPC over the liberals, which will turf out Martin, and ensure the CPC collapses quickly to establish a more centreist government under someone else. Another minority under a new Liberal government with a coalition would be good for making progress on the hill.

People are settling on their decisions now, as we go into supper time gradually across the country, and tomorrow people will mark their ballots and have to live with the outcome that will roll in in the late hours of the evening on monday.

Unfortunately, I never saw an organized 'anyone but the conservatives' campaign muster anywhere, but I get the sense of a deep-rooted visceral rejection of their position among a broad demographic across the country as I watch town-hall type meetings, and listen to phone in content. I worry that the CPC strategy of not saying much (don't disclose the true agenda) and muzzling actual MP candidates will actually work for the less sophisticated voters. A sad comment on the CPC party. I worry about what it means for our country.

The International Read
I think there's a pretty good perspective to be had by tuning in to what journalists with the benefit of some distance say about the race. So here's a round-up of stuff I can find at various reputable media sites. Of course there are biases, but I think the distance provides somewhat of a filter, for better or worse.

The New York Times article on the pending vote.

The Independent has an interesting article that perhaps comes to conclusions a bit too fast. On the positive side, it is speaking to a parliamentary-system-literate audience which allows it to get into a bit more depth than the NYTimes article, and picks up both on Martins' awkwarly run campaign, and on Harper's "North European" slight pretty quickly. It's got a weird perspective on Ignatief in Toronto, painting him as the heir apparent for the Liberal party after Martin gets bumped following an election loss. I guess he's known to Britons from a BBC2 tenure of some kind.

New Zealand's Herald has an article picked up on Friday from Reuters that takes a bit of a different tack. (It's great to see all these different spins!) This article focusses more on the encumbant Liberals fight to the finish, a CPAC poll dividing the race at 37 to 31% in favour of the CPC's and takes Harper's comments about 'not addressing abortion in the near term' at face value, without pointing out the criticisms about skirting any issues that would expose the socially conservative and ugly underbelly of their hidden agenda.

Australia's Sydney Morning Herald has an article about Bon Jovi's plane slipping off the runway in Hamilton, but nothing about the Canadian election recently. The paper seems a bit of a rag based on the focus of the bulk of their articles (lots of hollywood) - plus their page is pretty heavy, and slow loading.

Australia's Daily Telegraph has quite a good article, covering issues, other parties and with a pretty balanced approach. Heck, they even use the word 'extremist' near Harper's name. Nice to see some recognition of that criticsm, while still putting his view forward.

The LATimes has the barest minimum of an article. To it's credit, it does give a great overview of the numbers involved, in terms of seats and the mechanics of the government. But it's got that typical American audience need for an explanation about parliamentary democracy. It covers all the issues in two short sentences. Not quite the coverage you'd expect a major city to have for their country's largest trading partner (or second now apparently) going to the polls! Typical myopia.


Record Turnout Expected
It should be interesting to see the turn-out numbers. I'm expecting more than 60,000 votes cast in our riding of Ottawa Centre. It will also be interesting to watch the overall numbers. My sense is that the extra effort seen in attending advance polls will manifest itself in strongly higher numbers on election day as well.

The liberals probably have the most to gain from this, although I get the feeling that the other left-leaning parties may as well benefit. But what do I know - I think I get a skewed view of the world from the confines of my left-leaning riding. Then again, there is a large pro-green display in the window of a prominent 'yoga clothing' store in Westboro. It attempts to show the Greens as the only viable choice, and highlight an issue with each of the other three parties. They seemed to be a bit weak on what to criticize for the NDP, colouring them as pot-heads! That's a weird one... I think they're mixing them up with the marajuana party. And what more pot-head group can you find than a store for yoga clothing!