In some ways, irregardless of your political stripes, these are the most exciting days of a Parliamentary Democracy. The wheels turn to set about a potential change in government. Roles that are otherwise window-dressing actually have a function and we see that a few dozen millions can live in relative harmony and bring about a structured revisiting of their system of government.
So a vote is on, and the outcome is essentially a foregone conclusion. Non-confidence in the reigning party will be confirmed, following the motion served last week by The Conservatives and NDP (Moved by Harper, seconded by Layton). The outcome is that with the non-confidence vote lost by the governing party, the Governor-General (the Queen's representative in Canada) will confer with the Prime Minister and in that process will call for a new election. The writ, as we say, will be dropped.
She, (the GG) can actually do something else if she wanted - she could say, "You conservatives, NDP's and Bloc's go form a new government." But that's very unlikely, and so we'll end up going to the polls in early January.
Voting on the non-confidence motion gets underway just before 7:00pm tonight, and doesn't take long, as members simply stand to be counted and then we know.
Phoning it in For the First Month
It's generally conceeded that the parties will not be going full tilt until after the Christmas season. There will be some token campaigning, but they anticipate a lot of doors closed in their faces leading up to the holidays, and so will wait until afterwards to start really pounding the pavement.
The first spins of the session will have to be seen. We still see the Liberals saying "Canadians don't want an election" Canadians generally don't seem to care much when it happens. The opposition parties point out that they'd like a non-confidence motion now, and an election later (with some governing going ahead for a month or so).
They have a point, I suppose - the Liberals - that once confidence has failed, the concept of continuing to legislate further business is a bit of a stretch to the parliametary system.
Enjoying the Machinations
So meanwhile, enjoy the steps as they play out. I think it's the best part of the system, steeped in tradition, no gunshots invoved or people lined up against garden walls. The PM should have a speech for the press shortly about his chat with the GG, there should be statements that punch the primary slogans and points of the respective campaigns, and lawn signs will start sprouting around town.
I'd recommend a sign from each of the Liberals and the Greens for your lawn - the colours will be particularly festive. You can worry about the political statement after Christmas, and pull them down in favour of your chosen party. Or, if you're like me, no party at all.
Sunday
There's an Election Looming - The Lay of the Land
It's late Novemeber, 2005 and there are moves afoot that will precipitate an election before long. The lay of the land is this: The ruling liberals are on record as saying they will call an election, around the March '06 time frame, based on the timing of a certain judicial review report (more on that later).
They are in a minority government position, one where the opposition parties can topple them with a non-confidence vote, but only if the other parties work together.
There is no single other party with which the governing liberals can cooperate to carry the house, and thus a simple coalition is not possible. Plus, while loose allignment with one of the opposing parties was enough to barely (ie by one vote) hold on to power, that has been dissolved. The numbers were just balanced insuch a way, back when non-confidence votes were being weilded a few months back, that the two together (Liberals and NDP) could, with the tie breaking vote of the speaker of the house, carry the day.
But it's not that simple, the NDP (New Democratic Party - they are not actually "New" at all) has proposed that something other than the usual non-confidence, bring-down-the-governement-type vote be introduced. They want to pass a vote to have an election at a specific time - in early January.
But that hasn't been done before, and the Liberals claim that it's not kosher. Either there is confidence in the Government or there isn't (Spin 1), they say. And Canadians do not want a Christmas Holidays election (Spin 2)
But "Hey-" say the NDP and the other two opposition parties, the Bloc and Conservatives, why can't we agree to dissolve the governement later, after these pieces of legislation you the governement are trying to complete, and we the opposition would like to see completed. (Spin 3)
This, to your humble citizen seems pretty good - politicians actually doing something, and finishing some work. Why can't we do that indeed.
DE-SPIN:
Spin 1: Either there's confidence or there isn't. This is governing party spin to actually say "We need to be seen having the election on our terms, and we want to force the election to be either a) called by us at our timing, to project a we're-in-control look... or we want the election forced at Christmas time so we can paint you with our Spin 2 Brush and make you all look bad.
Spin 2: The idea that "Canadians Don't want a Christmas Election" is total bunk. Canadians could care less. It takes 20 minutes or so to vote - no big deal. In fact, it gives Canadians a chance to talk about something beefy and convouted during the holidays when families and friends get together. In reality, if we thought about it more openly and in the media (don't get me started), Canadians would LOVE a Christmas election. Everyone votes, Christmas cookies around the fire, singing polically-re-written Christmas Carols, we all watch the returns with a glass of nog. It would be great fun.
But the Media is spinning this for the politicians, when in reality, the politicians do not want to campaign in the cold, don't want to disrupt their lavish Holiday lifestyle with some actual work. So while the opposition wants to avoid Xmas with their "Hey, lets get some work done" approach (see below), the Liberals want to avoid it with a "Hey, we'll blame this on you and it will hurt you in the polls" thing.
Spin 3: This is actually mostly Spin 2 all over again. The opposition parties can be painted with the same brush as the governing politicians. Nobody wants to work - let alone work hard over Christmas. If it happens, and it probably will, they will all look back at it happily because it will be a big bonding thing with egg-nog and warm furry sweaters and frost-bitten ears, and they'll call it the best days of their lives.
However, I actually like the spin idea that they should postpone till January, and actually pass some flippin' legislation so the country can move forward a bit before the next election blasts a whole in all government productivity.
Oh, the 'judicial review' thing - that's better known as the Gomery Report, an investigation or royal commission or some sort of review of the events around a big financial scandal in Quebec, where a raft of Quebec politicians and beaurocrats lined their buddies' pockets through improperly doled out contracts. This thing is SpinCity, and I'll talk more about it later.
Next Blogs - Watch for a weekly update, or even more often if the spirit (and events) move me to the keyboard
They are in a minority government position, one where the opposition parties can topple them with a non-confidence vote, but only if the other parties work together.
There is no single other party with which the governing liberals can cooperate to carry the house, and thus a simple coalition is not possible. Plus, while loose allignment with one of the opposing parties was enough to barely (ie by one vote) hold on to power, that has been dissolved. The numbers were just balanced insuch a way, back when non-confidence votes were being weilded a few months back, that the two together (Liberals and NDP) could, with the tie breaking vote of the speaker of the house, carry the day.
But it's not that simple, the NDP (New Democratic Party - they are not actually "New" at all) has proposed that something other than the usual non-confidence, bring-down-the-governement-type vote be introduced. They want to pass a vote to have an election at a specific time - in early January.
But that hasn't been done before, and the Liberals claim that it's not kosher. Either there is confidence in the Government or there isn't (Spin 1), they say. And Canadians do not want a Christmas Holidays election (Spin 2)
But "Hey-" say the NDP and the other two opposition parties, the Bloc and Conservatives, why can't we agree to dissolve the governement later, after these pieces of legislation you the governement are trying to complete, and we the opposition would like to see completed. (Spin 3)
This, to your humble citizen seems pretty good - politicians actually doing something, and finishing some work. Why can't we do that indeed.
DE-SPIN:
Spin 1: Either there's confidence or there isn't. This is governing party spin to actually say "We need to be seen having the election on our terms, and we want to force the election to be either a) called by us at our timing, to project a we're-in-control look... or we want the election forced at Christmas time so we can paint you with our Spin 2 Brush and make you all look bad.
Spin 2: The idea that "Canadians Don't want a Christmas Election" is total bunk. Canadians could care less. It takes 20 minutes or so to vote - no big deal. In fact, it gives Canadians a chance to talk about something beefy and convouted during the holidays when families and friends get together. In reality, if we thought about it more openly and in the media (don't get me started), Canadians would LOVE a Christmas election. Everyone votes, Christmas cookies around the fire, singing polically-re-written Christmas Carols, we all watch the returns with a glass of nog. It would be great fun.
But the Media is spinning this for the politicians, when in reality, the politicians do not want to campaign in the cold, don't want to disrupt their lavish Holiday lifestyle with some actual work. So while the opposition wants to avoid Xmas with their "Hey, lets get some work done" approach (see below), the Liberals want to avoid it with a "Hey, we'll blame this on you and it will hurt you in the polls" thing.
Spin 3: This is actually mostly Spin 2 all over again. The opposition parties can be painted with the same brush as the governing politicians. Nobody wants to work - let alone work hard over Christmas. If it happens, and it probably will, they will all look back at it happily because it will be a big bonding thing with egg-nog and warm furry sweaters and frost-bitten ears, and they'll call it the best days of their lives.
However, I actually like the spin idea that they should postpone till January, and actually pass some flippin' legislation so the country can move forward a bit before the next election blasts a whole in all government productivity.
Oh, the 'judicial review' thing - that's better known as the Gomery Report, an investigation or royal commission or some sort of review of the events around a big financial scandal in Quebec, where a raft of Quebec politicians and beaurocrats lined their buddies' pockets through improperly doled out contracts. This thing is SpinCity, and I'll talk more about it later.
Next Blogs - Watch for a weekly update, or even more often if the spirit (and events) move me to the keyboard
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