There's an Election Looming - The Lay of the Land

It's late Novemeber, 2005 and there are moves afoot that will precipitate an election before long. The lay of the land is this: The ruling liberals are on record as saying they will call an election, around the March '06 time frame, based on the timing of a certain judicial review report (more on that later).

They are in a minority government position, one where the opposition parties can topple them with a non-confidence vote, but only if the other parties work together.

There is no single other party with which the governing liberals can cooperate to carry the house, and thus a simple coalition is not possible. Plus, while loose allignment with one of the opposing parties was enough to barely (ie by one vote) hold on to power, that has been dissolved. The numbers were just balanced insuch a way, back when non-confidence votes were being weilded a few months back, that the two together (Liberals and NDP) could, with the tie breaking vote of the speaker of the house, carry the day.


But it's not that simple, the NDP (New Democratic Party - they are not actually "New" at all) has proposed that something other than the usual non-confidence, bring-down-the-governement-type vote be introduced. They want to pass a vote to have an election at a specific time - in early January.

But that hasn't been done before, and the Liberals claim that it's not kosher. Either there is confidence in the Government or there isn't (Spin 1), they say. And Canadians do not want a Christmas Holidays election (Spin 2)

But "Hey-" say the NDP and the other two opposition parties, the Bloc and Conservatives, why can't we agree to dissolve the governement later, after these pieces of legislation you the governement are trying to complete, and we the opposition would like to see completed. (Spin 3)

This, to your humble citizen seems pretty good - politicians actually doing something, and finishing some work. Why can't we do that indeed.


DE-SPIN:

Spin 1: Either there's confidence or there isn't. This is governing party spin to actually say "We need to be seen having the election on our terms, and we want to force the election to be either a) called by us at our timing, to project a we're-in-control look... or we want the election forced at Christmas time so we can paint you with our Spin 2 Brush and make you all look bad.

Spin 2: The idea that "Canadians Don't want a Christmas Election" is total bunk. Canadians could care less. It takes 20 minutes or so to vote - no big deal. In fact, it gives Canadians a chance to talk about something beefy and convouted during the holidays when families and friends get together. In reality, if we thought about it more openly and in the media (don't get me started), Canadians would LOVE a Christmas election. Everyone votes, Christmas cookies around the fire, singing polically-re-written Christmas Carols, we all watch the returns with a glass of nog. It would be great fun.

But the Media is spinning this for the politicians, when in reality, the politicians do not want to campaign in the cold, don't want to disrupt their lavish Holiday lifestyle with some actual work. So while the opposition wants to avoid Xmas with their "Hey, lets get some work done" approach (see below), the Liberals want to avoid it with a "Hey, we'll blame this on you and it will hurt you in the polls" thing.

Spin 3: This is actually mostly Spin 2 all over again. The opposition parties can be painted with the same brush as the governing politicians. Nobody wants to work - let alone work hard over Christmas. If it happens, and it probably will, they will all look back at it happily because it will be a big bonding thing with egg-nog and warm furry sweaters and frost-bitten ears, and they'll call it the best days of their lives.

However, I actually like the spin idea that they should postpone till January, and actually pass some flippin' legislation so the country can move forward a bit before the next election blasts a whole in all government productivity.

Oh, the 'judicial review' thing - that's better known as the Gomery Report, an investigation or royal commission or some sort of review of the events around a big financial scandal in Quebec, where a raft of Quebec politicians and beaurocrats lined their buddies' pockets through improperly doled out contracts. This thing is SpinCity, and I'll talk more about it later.

Next Blogs - Watch for a weekly update, or even more often if the spirit (and events) move me to the keyboard