That's pretty much as I expected. The Liberals under Stephan Dion will 'not show up' for the vote on the Throne Speech. Our PM is taking a super arrogant tone about no amendments. The Liberals have walked into this one with their troubles.
Lucky for us there is a minority government, in that the speech we heard - as Dion says - is a lot different that what we'd see if there was a majority government.
The Crime bill will the first reprise of previous legislation that the Conservatives will try to force through the house. This will be a tough one - but the media isn't helping me much here. I've heard and read a few reports, but they never tell us what the opposition didn't like about the original bill that was defeated. C'mon journalists - give us the details we need to understand the situation!
Presumably amendments will be proposed, but the question is, will Mr. Dion let this one go forward, or will he stop the spinning wheel there. I speculate that he will hold his nose and abstain from voting this one down as well.
He's likely going to wait until an environmentally related bill comes up and then propose changes that won't go through and then vote it down.
The Conservatives will know that, and so will stuff in all sorts of other bills first. Gun Registry elimination will likely be one of them. OF course, nobody except a handful of rural gun folk will support that, so it's maybe not a bad one to call an election on as well.
Our government is in dire need of some good leadership - Dion's not going to do it, Harper is a scary guy as are his cronies. The other options are likely in any scenario. How does it happen? Presumably a liberal leadership change - resulting in a Ignatief/Rae option... neither of which are very appealing. The former exudes a smug, eye-rolling smirkiness when dealing with others that wipes out his other potentially positive traits. Rae has too much baggage from provincial politics to take Ontario, and is seen as an Ontarian by everyone else. I suppose a Manley run might be possible, and he has some credibility.
Harper will surely stay on even if defeated in some way, particularly if Parliament flips to a liberal minority somehow.
It's going to be a while before we can see any landscape change that makes a difference to the race.
Voter Prefs?
I don't see a big change in the offing in voter preferences. I think the conservative vote is topped out, and any change might exhibit what we've seen in Ontario elections recently, with a drop across the traditional parties, and a gain by the fringe ones - with Greens picking up more votes. I think Liberals will switch more to voting out of party loyalty, and vote mostly against the other guy, while they wait for a leadership change.
The saga continues.
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