Framing the State of the Parties - Ripe for Change

As the campaigns get into full gear, I can't help but think about the one positive outcome we face here - Regardless of who wins this, we are surely about to see four of the five party leaders change this year.

The guy who gets in - and it will be a guy - will stick around, but surely the rest will be sent packing. We're seeing the Liberal's Ignatief make his first attempt at a real campaign. But he hasn't wowed us so far, running up to this event, and with a failure to take the party to a government, he would certainly be out. I will return to him in a moment.

The PM Harper is said to be losing support in his party too. I'm not sure how long you can muzzle adults before they get a little hot under the collar, so I'm sure losing this election (which I hope does happen) will bring his number up as well. I suspect the CPC would string him along for 6months before announcing an convention, but he would be gone.

Jack Layton has had a bad string of health issues, and has been in place with the NDP for a long time now. He's done a reasonable job for that party, pulling little bits of value out of CPC budgets - one might say propping them up with an informal coalition - for quite a while. But I suspect he might be motivated to let go at a post election review.

Elizabeth May generally gets good things said about her from her audience, but I think she hasn't done the Green party any favours. For some reason she thought it appropriate to go up against a government strong-hold seat, rather than pick of a nobody seat. That seems to me like a HUGE mistake. What better way to advance your party than to get into the friggin' house of commons. It's been too long without progress for them, and surely there will finally be an effort to replace her as well.

Returning for a moment to Ignatief, it seems possible that even with a minority win for his party that a leadership review might oust him. The Liberals are doing a very poor job of holding their party together as a cohesive unit this past decade, since all the animosity of the Cretienites versus Martinites, and those camps are said to still be in place.