This one came and left pretty quickly. Over the past few days it looked like an election was imminent over a Conservative bill to extend the Afghan mission. The motivation seemed to me to be coalescing around a desire to exploit perceived differences among Liberal leadership about how the mission should go.
But as of this morning it sounds like the liberals have agreed to a position regarding post 2011 definitions of the engagement. I'm guessing the liberals and conservatives will be able to find some agreement to avoid defeat of the bill, and they will end up waiting for the budget as the motivation for defeating the government.
An election seems needed to clean house. The liberals can drop Dion after an election attempt. The Bloc can drop Mr quit-no-not-quit. The NDP & Greens will get a new snapshot of where they stand. The conservatives can experience their humbling inability to grow past their current minority -thwarting their ability to deploy their hidden agenda.
The next few days will be interesting to watch.
Tuesday
Pre Christmas Calm
There is a strange detente in Canadian politics. I had expected an election by now, but there remains this strange stand-off based on the fact that the Conservatives can't gain any support, and thus would be stuck with the same situation after any election, and the liberals have a weak, uncharismatic leader.
The Bali climate change conference surely didn't win them any support, with his Smiling Smugness presiding over the portfolio. The eventual capitulation to acknowledge a slightly less pig-headed stance will not likely win many supporters over either, but rather there will be just a further sense of following the American position blindly. Interestingly, the pull-back by the American contingent is now being characterized as un-supportable by the White House. What will His Royal Smugitude do if they reverse their position post conference?
Anyway, I'm not sure how this gets resolved. Presumably, given a few month window, Dion might have the foresight to withdraw and let others take over. If they were smart they would secretly cue up a convention and have a re-vote with a short window. Or ideally, show a little leadership and have it all over the web and/or phone in voting.
We can only speculate what the new year will bring.
The Bali climate change conference surely didn't win them any support, with his Smiling Smugness presiding over the portfolio. The eventual capitulation to acknowledge a slightly less pig-headed stance will not likely win many supporters over either, but rather there will be just a further sense of following the American position blindly. Interestingly, the pull-back by the American contingent is now being characterized as un-supportable by the White House. What will His Royal Smugitude do if they reverse their position post conference?
Anyway, I'm not sure how this gets resolved. Presumably, given a few month window, Dion might have the foresight to withdraw and let others take over. If they were smart they would secretly cue up a convention and have a re-vote with a short window. Or ideally, show a little leadership and have it all over the web and/or phone in voting.
We can only speculate what the new year will bring.
Thursday
Step One
That's pretty much as I expected. The Liberals under Stephan Dion will 'not show up' for the vote on the Throne Speech. Our PM is taking a super arrogant tone about no amendments. The Liberals have walked into this one with their troubles.
Lucky for us there is a minority government, in that the speech we heard - as Dion says - is a lot different that what we'd see if there was a majority government.
The Crime bill will the first reprise of previous legislation that the Conservatives will try to force through the house. This will be a tough one - but the media isn't helping me much here. I've heard and read a few reports, but they never tell us what the opposition didn't like about the original bill that was defeated. C'mon journalists - give us the details we need to understand the situation!
Presumably amendments will be proposed, but the question is, will Mr. Dion let this one go forward, or will he stop the spinning wheel there. I speculate that he will hold his nose and abstain from voting this one down as well.
He's likely going to wait until an environmentally related bill comes up and then propose changes that won't go through and then vote it down.
The Conservatives will know that, and so will stuff in all sorts of other bills first. Gun Registry elimination will likely be one of them. OF course, nobody except a handful of rural gun folk will support that, so it's maybe not a bad one to call an election on as well.
Our government is in dire need of some good leadership - Dion's not going to do it, Harper is a scary guy as are his cronies. The other options are likely in any scenario. How does it happen? Presumably a liberal leadership change - resulting in a Ignatief/Rae option... neither of which are very appealing. The former exudes a smug, eye-rolling smirkiness when dealing with others that wipes out his other potentially positive traits. Rae has too much baggage from provincial politics to take Ontario, and is seen as an Ontarian by everyone else. I suppose a Manley run might be possible, and he has some credibility.
Harper will surely stay on even if defeated in some way, particularly if Parliament flips to a liberal minority somehow.
It's going to be a while before we can see any landscape change that makes a difference to the race.
Voter Prefs?
I don't see a big change in the offing in voter preferences. I think the conservative vote is topped out, and any change might exhibit what we've seen in Ontario elections recently, with a drop across the traditional parties, and a gain by the fringe ones - with Greens picking up more votes. I think Liberals will switch more to voting out of party loyalty, and vote mostly against the other guy, while they wait for a leadership change.
The saga continues.
Lucky for us there is a minority government, in that the speech we heard - as Dion says - is a lot different that what we'd see if there was a majority government.
The Crime bill will the first reprise of previous legislation that the Conservatives will try to force through the house. This will be a tough one - but the media isn't helping me much here. I've heard and read a few reports, but they never tell us what the opposition didn't like about the original bill that was defeated. C'mon journalists - give us the details we need to understand the situation!
Presumably amendments will be proposed, but the question is, will Mr. Dion let this one go forward, or will he stop the spinning wheel there. I speculate that he will hold his nose and abstain from voting this one down as well.
He's likely going to wait until an environmentally related bill comes up and then propose changes that won't go through and then vote it down.
The Conservatives will know that, and so will stuff in all sorts of other bills first. Gun Registry elimination will likely be one of them. OF course, nobody except a handful of rural gun folk will support that, so it's maybe not a bad one to call an election on as well.
Our government is in dire need of some good leadership - Dion's not going to do it, Harper is a scary guy as are his cronies. The other options are likely in any scenario. How does it happen? Presumably a liberal leadership change - resulting in a Ignatief/Rae option... neither of which are very appealing. The former exudes a smug, eye-rolling smirkiness when dealing with others that wipes out his other potentially positive traits. Rae has too much baggage from provincial politics to take Ontario, and is seen as an Ontarian by everyone else. I suppose a Manley run might be possible, and he has some credibility.
Harper will surely stay on even if defeated in some way, particularly if Parliament flips to a liberal minority somehow.
It's going to be a while before we can see any landscape change that makes a difference to the race.
Voter Prefs?
I don't see a big change in the offing in voter preferences. I think the conservative vote is topped out, and any change might exhibit what we've seen in Ontario elections recently, with a drop across the traditional parties, and a gain by the fringe ones - with Greens picking up more votes. I think Liberals will switch more to voting out of party loyalty, and vote mostly against the other guy, while they wait for a leadership change.
The saga continues.
Wednesday
Throne Speech Precipitate
Last night's prime-time throne speech was yet another one of those whitehouse-wannabe moves. I guess they would have called it a state-of-the-union address given the opportunity. A lot of media did anyway. Interestingly, the Conservatives abandoned the ideas of securing a Sparks Street building for a new 'briefing room' idea - a la the American Whitehouse sessions. 
I guess the idea would have been that they could invite only the press they like to those sessions, rather than being under the rules of the press club or other egalitarian approach to communication. The government has been terrible for open communication with media and thereby Canadian citizens.
So our GG gives the speech last night - I must admit it was interesting to see the ceremony around the situations, with the black-rod guy and all the MP's being forced to stand in the doorway of the Senate - that's pretty wild. I'm uncomfortable standing idle for 40minutes, I don't know how all those ancient folk do it.
Regarding the style and substance - first the former: call me old fashioned, but I think the GG should be a master communicator, with a good command of the language and ability to convey some depth as she reads the text. I didn't get that here. Our previous GG - Adrian Clarkson was a superior reader for that role.
Madame Jean regaled us with several references to the Canaddin Miltree. But she looked good in the big chair. And what was with the marmalade jar lid on her shoulder?
Wouldn't it be something to see a little more teeth in that role, so that there are a slate of qualifications that Canadians demand for the job, and then she/he writes their own speech based on the input from the government. Then they can play off both sides - communicate the intent from the government, but add some cautionary words.
Okay - I know I'm way off topic. Let's reform the pseudo-monarchy.
Anyway, regarding substance this whole thing isn't so much about government as it is about the topic of this blog... ie the next election.
The NDP and the Block quickly play their part - and advocate defeat for the budget. The Conservatives play their part, and change it into not an opportunity to use the Liberal parties disarray to foist an election on them (that would have meant putting out a crazy budget to force immediate defeat) but rather they play the card of indicating they will re-introduce all their crappiest legislation from the last session.
Now the game is that the liberals either have to initiate an election, or 'not show up' for the vote, tacitly approving the budget, and then being faced with all the previously rejected legislation. Each element of that - by the way - will now be designated a confidence bill - and so again, the liberals either face an election with their current mess, or help the conservative impose martial law and serve up kittens for dinner.
Election this Fall
So will there be an election this fall? Not sure - lets work it through.
Either the Liberals don't show up and let the speech pass, or they bring it down. They will propose an amendment to the speech which should be something about Kyoto and environment, so that if the house falls, they can say that it is on that issue, which is the one they wish to fight the election around.
So yeah, I think there will be an election - maybe not right away, but the precipitating event will be linked to this speech. If not a direct defeat, then a defeat based on the amendment, and if not that, then a defeat based on the accompanying budget, or the resulting legislation.
But wait - it has to happen very soon if we aren't facing a Christmas campaign. Just think of the worms stirred up in that. To Jesus or not to Jesus your way through the holidays - separation of religion and politics. Every candidate will have to be buried in events for Hanukkah, Christmas, Hajj, Eid-Ul-Adha, Kwanza, Flying-Spaghetti day and all the rest.
So lets watch and see!
I guess the idea would have been that they could invite only the press they like to those sessions, rather than being under the rules of the press club or other egalitarian approach to communication. The government has been terrible for open communication with media and thereby Canadian citizens.So our GG gives the speech last night - I must admit it was interesting to see the ceremony around the situations, with the black-rod guy and all the MP's being forced to stand in the doorway of the Senate - that's pretty wild. I'm uncomfortable standing idle for 40minutes, I don't know how all those ancient folk do it.
Regarding the style and substance - first the former: call me old fashioned, but I think the GG should be a master communicator, with a good command of the language and ability to convey some depth as she reads the text. I didn't get that here. Our previous GG - Adrian Clarkson was a superior reader for that role.
Madame Jean regaled us with several references to the Canaddin Miltree. But she looked good in the big chair. And what was with the marmalade jar lid on her shoulder?Wouldn't it be something to see a little more teeth in that role, so that there are a slate of qualifications that Canadians demand for the job, and then she/he writes their own speech based on the input from the government. Then they can play off both sides - communicate the intent from the government, but add some cautionary words.
Okay - I know I'm way off topic. Let's reform the pseudo-monarchy.
Anyway, regarding substance this whole thing isn't so much about government as it is about the topic of this blog... ie the next election.
The NDP and the Block quickly play their part - and advocate defeat for the budget. The Conservatives play their part, and change it into not an opportunity to use the Liberal parties disarray to foist an election on them (that would have meant putting out a crazy budget to force immediate defeat) but rather they play the card of indicating they will re-introduce all their crappiest legislation from the last session.
Now the game is that the liberals either have to initiate an election, or 'not show up' for the vote, tacitly approving the budget, and then being faced with all the previously rejected legislation. Each element of that - by the way - will now be designated a confidence bill - and so again, the liberals either face an election with their current mess, or help the conservative impose martial law and serve up kittens for dinner.
Election this Fall
So will there be an election this fall? Not sure - lets work it through.
Either the Liberals don't show up and let the speech pass, or they bring it down. They will propose an amendment to the speech which should be something about Kyoto and environment, so that if the house falls, they can say that it is on that issue, which is the one they wish to fight the election around.
So yeah, I think there will be an election - maybe not right away, but the precipitating event will be linked to this speech. If not a direct defeat, then a defeat based on the amendment, and if not that, then a defeat based on the accompanying budget, or the resulting legislation.
But wait - it has to happen very soon if we aren't facing a Christmas campaign. Just think of the worms stirred up in that. To Jesus or not to Jesus your way through the holidays - separation of religion and politics. Every candidate will have to be buried in events for Hanukkah, Christmas, Hajj, Eid-Ul-Adha, Kwanza, Flying-Spaghetti day and all the rest.
So lets watch and see!
Thursday
Quebec ByElection Review
Interesting steps toward election time. The recent flurry of Quebec by-elections adds more complexity to the landscape. Generally, it looks like bad news for the Liberals, good news for the Conservatives and NDP and worst news for the Bloc.
After Gilles Duceppe did his spectacular flip flop (I quit see ya - oh wait, no I don't) I figured they were finished, and the election backs that up. Three ridings were up for grabs Outremont, Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. They went NDP, Conservative and Bloc. The latter was a very thin win where it should have been a big margin. The Roberval thing is noteable to see, but a right wing reactionary vote as a fall-back isn't too surprising.
The NDP getting a seat in Quebec is a surprising, but Outrement, I can kind of understand. It's trendy and left-bank feeling, so it's not a stretch from that point of view. Hmmm how did the greens do there I wonder... Whew - down in the weeds!
It was Bloc and Conservative at 2k a piece, liberals at 7k and NDP at just over 11k. Greens: 529.
Yikes.
Anyway, my point is that this doesn't say much for Liberal leader Dionne's future - which makes me think, election soon. Liberals must be thinking, "how can we dump this guy?" Conservatives must be just waiting for some indication that it's bubbling a bit more, and they'll drop the writ.
Speculation I've also heard is that the Ignatief camp is holding back to help the stumble along. They'll look better with their guy having been around for a few weeks now at least. He doesn't look so much like he's just stepped off the plane.
The bottom line is that our leadership is pretty marginal. There is no real choice out there - anything would be better than Harper, but I wouldn't want a majority on any of them.
The waiting for the Election signals continues, but I'm guessing we'll see it happen during the winter - I suspect the pending Ontario Election means it won't happen before Christmas though.
After Gilles Duceppe did his spectacular flip flop (I quit see ya - oh wait, no I don't) I figured they were finished, and the election backs that up. Three ridings were up for grabs Outremont, Roberval and Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. They went NDP, Conservative and Bloc. The latter was a very thin win where it should have been a big margin. The Roberval thing is noteable to see, but a right wing reactionary vote as a fall-back isn't too surprising.
The NDP getting a seat in Quebec is a surprising, but Outrement, I can kind of understand. It's trendy and left-bank feeling, so it's not a stretch from that point of view. Hmmm how did the greens do there I wonder... Whew - down in the weeds!
It was Bloc and Conservative at 2k a piece, liberals at 7k and NDP at just over 11k. Greens: 529.
Yikes.
Anyway, my point is that this doesn't say much for Liberal leader Dionne's future - which makes me think, election soon. Liberals must be thinking, "how can we dump this guy?" Conservatives must be just waiting for some indication that it's bubbling a bit more, and they'll drop the writ.
Speculation I've also heard is that the Ignatief camp is holding back to help the stumble along. They'll look better with their guy having been around for a few weeks now at least. He doesn't look so much like he's just stepped off the plane.
The bottom line is that our leadership is pretty marginal. There is no real choice out there - anything would be better than Harper, but I wouldn't want a majority on any of them.
The waiting for the Election signals continues, but I'm guessing we'll see it happen during the winter - I suspect the pending Ontario Election means it won't happen before Christmas though.
Wednesday
Sixty Days is Now?
In February, I speculated that the election would be in about 6 months. I was a bit off, perhaps, but I see the wheels turning still.
My premise is/was that the plan for making the next election happen was orchestrated a few months back, and the pieces are still falling into place. Back in February, a new Kyoto law was passed as a private members bill. This law requires the government to set out their greenhouse gas remediation plan. Of course, they are having none of that, and that is what the opposition wants - force the government into a environmentally triggered non-confidence vote and an election scheduled shortly thereafter. This fits with all the opposition parties (except the Bloc) who are looking to fight this next race on the hot-button topic of the environment.
Yesterday was the deadline. I certainly didn't hear anything happen. It's a pretty sad day when laws passed by the house are ignored by the government. What ever happened to democracy. It seems as bad as the US where they do crazy things with their legislation. In that bastion of democracy, their president can just arbitrarily write in new stuff after a bill is passed. What a wacky world that is - "I just signed my employment contract, I think I'll write in a 100% raise, and a 6month paid vacation... there." What if we could work that way. I also heard something about an anonymous hold that can be put onto legislation there as well.
Anyway, we are seeing more of that US playbook in action here. Unfortunately the Liberal/NDP options are not very compelling currently. But either is better than the creepy Harper guy. Liz May and her greens initially sounded viable to me, but then I learned that she is actually an Anglican (or other?) minister! That's terrible - we could end up with a biblically-guided leader if she were to ever (not that she could) take office. Religion and politics - yikes. More shades of the American system.
I'll be watching - perhaps this old blog will spring back to life again with another go around in a Canadian Electoral race.
My premise is/was that the plan for making the next election happen was orchestrated a few months back, and the pieces are still falling into place. Back in February, a new Kyoto law was passed as a private members bill. This law requires the government to set out their greenhouse gas remediation plan. Of course, they are having none of that, and that is what the opposition wants - force the government into a environmentally triggered non-confidence vote and an election scheduled shortly thereafter. This fits with all the opposition parties (except the Bloc) who are looking to fight this next race on the hot-button topic of the environment.
Yesterday was the deadline. I certainly didn't hear anything happen. It's a pretty sad day when laws passed by the house are ignored by the government. What ever happened to democracy. It seems as bad as the US where they do crazy things with their legislation. In that bastion of democracy, their president can just arbitrarily write in new stuff after a bill is passed. What a wacky world that is - "I just signed my employment contract, I think I'll write in a 100% raise, and a 6month paid vacation... there." What if we could work that way. I also heard something about an anonymous hold that can be put onto legislation there as well.
Anyway, we are seeing more of that US playbook in action here. Unfortunately the Liberal/NDP options are not very compelling currently. But either is better than the creepy Harper guy. Liz May and her greens initially sounded viable to me, but then I learned that she is actually an Anglican (or other?) minister! That's terrible - we could end up with a biblically-guided leader if she were to ever (not that she could) take office. Religion and politics - yikes. More shades of the American system.
I'll be watching - perhaps this old blog will spring back to life again with another go around in a Canadian Electoral race.
Tuesday
Visit Me Later...
Another election can't be more than six months away. While the current government has cozy secret meetings with American Far Right groups feeding them "great ideas" they try to keep most of their crazies quiet with a no-interviews policy and a firewall around their caucus.
This is not the Canada that Canadians want.
When the next election comes around, visit here at CanadianElection.blogspot.com (bookmark me now!) and you'll get my valuable insights into what's going on. Okay, not so much valuable as they are thoughtful.
Without any party loyalties, you get a point of view that supports elements from across the political spectrum - well, okay not from the gun-toting, bible thumping, anti foreigner wacko side.
See ya before the writ hits the floor!
This is not the Canada that Canadians want.
When the next election comes around, visit here at CanadianElection.blogspot.com (bookmark me now!) and you'll get my valuable insights into what's going on. Okay, not so much valuable as they are thoughtful.
Without any party loyalties, you get a point of view that supports elements from across the political spectrum - well, okay not from the gun-toting, bible thumping, anti foreigner wacko side.
See ya before the writ hits the floor!
Wednesday
Post Mortem
Well, a day has passed since the election, and while we're still in a quiet period, it's pretty tough to get away from the constant analysis, only about 5% of which is of any constructive interest.
There's the to-be-expected talk about successors to Paul Martin, and a general agreement across the political spectrum that his consolation speech was pretty classy and strategically well timed. He's avoided a long drawn out process towards launching a new leadership campaign by withdrawing right away.
I was pondering when the Conservatives will haul out their country destroying ideas. Initially I thought, they will likely beleive that they can rule the world, and so will wait for a few months to "solidify" their base then start hauling out social conservative moves. Replacing judges, reversing basic human rights, cancelling rehabilitation while wondering why the prisons are filling up with recitivists. I realized that they might go for another approach, which is to capitalize on the disarray of the Liberals, and ram their nasty policies through immediately. That would satisfy their most red-neck supporters, and the house would be hesitant to bring down the government without a viable Liberal leader. The other parties would also worry about the populace being unhappy with the expense of another quick election.
A scary thought, as it is tantamount to holding the country hostage to radical legislation.
You can Run...
To get away from the constant election talk on the radio, I switched to BBC World News feeds, and re-broadcast it to my down-stairs radios to listen during lunch. Just my luck, they decide to talk about the Canadian election, and interview Ottawa's most right-wing crazy talk show host. This twit then goes on about how the liberals were demanding that people "turn over their children to the government to be raised at the age of 2 years old" What an asshole.
Nothing like lying to the outside world and making Canada look like a totalitarian society. How he could twist increasing subsidies for child care into that, I don't know.
So, despite my best efforts to avoid election talk, my run to BBC didn't work. I've since switched to NPR. It's pretty guaranteed that US radio won't talk about Canada.
A final word about Ottawa Centre: Turned out to be 66,000 Votes, with the finishing order of Dewar(NDP) taking it, followed by Liberals, CPC, Greens and the rest. Suprised there wasn't more Green support, but still taking 10% of the votes isn't too bad I guess. Dewar won with 37% of the vote.
Adieu until the next election
So, in the interest of letting this sit, I think I'll abandon this feed until the next go-around. I'm guessing it will be, at earliest, autumn 2006 and at latest early summer 2007. Lets hope the fabric of our society can hold it together until then.
Signing off...
There's the to-be-expected talk about successors to Paul Martin, and a general agreement across the political spectrum that his consolation speech was pretty classy and strategically well timed. He's avoided a long drawn out process towards launching a new leadership campaign by withdrawing right away.
I was pondering when the Conservatives will haul out their country destroying ideas. Initially I thought, they will likely beleive that they can rule the world, and so will wait for a few months to "solidify" their base then start hauling out social conservative moves. Replacing judges, reversing basic human rights, cancelling rehabilitation while wondering why the prisons are filling up with recitivists. I realized that they might go for another approach, which is to capitalize on the disarray of the Liberals, and ram their nasty policies through immediately. That would satisfy their most red-neck supporters, and the house would be hesitant to bring down the government without a viable Liberal leader. The other parties would also worry about the populace being unhappy with the expense of another quick election.
A scary thought, as it is tantamount to holding the country hostage to radical legislation.
You can Run...
To get away from the constant election talk on the radio, I switched to BBC World News feeds, and re-broadcast it to my down-stairs radios to listen during lunch. Just my luck, they decide to talk about the Canadian election, and interview Ottawa's most right-wing crazy talk show host. This twit then goes on about how the liberals were demanding that people "turn over their children to the government to be raised at the age of 2 years old" What an asshole.
Nothing like lying to the outside world and making Canada look like a totalitarian society. How he could twist increasing subsidies for child care into that, I don't know.
So, despite my best efforts to avoid election talk, my run to BBC didn't work. I've since switched to NPR. It's pretty guaranteed that US radio won't talk about Canada.
A final word about Ottawa Centre: Turned out to be 66,000 Votes, with the finishing order of Dewar(NDP) taking it, followed by Liberals, CPC, Greens and the rest. Suprised there wasn't more Green support, but still taking 10% of the votes isn't too bad I guess. Dewar won with 37% of the vote.
Adieu until the next election
So, in the interest of letting this sit, I think I'll abandon this feed until the next go-around. I'm guessing it will be, at earliest, autumn 2006 and at latest early summer 2007. Lets hope the fabric of our society can hold it together until then.
Signing off...
Monday
Election Night
Okay, so now the clock ticker on the bottom of the screen has zeroed out. I've pulled my laptop down from my office, and watching the TV I'll update anyone who's following (as if anyone is).
Short Snappers
These notes will be updated through the evening, even though it looks like a continuous blog entry.
First results come in from the east coast. They are talking to Peter MacKay in the east, (declared elected), which made me think - this guy has been totally invisible during the entire election!! I've not heard his name mentioned even once during the whole campaign. Anyway, Mackay and the liberal (former PC) Scott Bryson has also been elected.
More results to come, but early going, and it's Liberals leading 24 to 11 to 5 for NDP and a single BQ are the numbers for elected and leading.
Any Americans out there? Unfortunately I'm guessing there is absolutely zero coverage on the entire US cable universe. Too bad... as bad as our Parliamentary system is - it's way better than the US system. It would be nice if you could see REAL democracy in action. Yes, democracy where there are no election irregularities. No ridings (ie electoral districts) where there are more votes cast than voters. No weird machine breakdowns that toss out all the black voters ballots.
Okay - just a little gloating there that the 'bastion of democracy' to the south is so unaware of what's happening with their near biggest economic partner so near to millions of their citizens.
More as it happens
TV Coverage - Sucking Spectacularly
Okay, so finally the results are rolling in, and we're seeing numbers for various ridings here and there. The CBC is showing the lineup of photos of candidates for various ridings and their current scores. BUT THEY DON"T INDICATE WHO THE INCUMBANT IS! What idiots. Isn't that kind of an obvious bit of info we want to know?!!?
Looks like CTV has a little MP on the face that is the encumbant, though I didn't notice it right away.
Okay, even global, the crazy right wing biased channel, has little [i] symbols to indicate incumbant.
Oshawa Swings ?
Hey ho - it looks like Sid Ryan is taking Oshawa? Ha - toasting that Carrie guy. Heard an all-candidates session and Ryan (though a union guy) sounded much more canny than the Carrie guy. Glad to see it swing away from the incumbent loser guy.
Later... Carrie managed to take it afterall. So much for voting based on candidate intelligence. (...and I'm NOT an NDP supporter).
So far it looks strangely like the polls were off, but it's so early who can say.
Scratch that, the share of the vote is still favouring the liberals at 35%lib to 38%CPC to 22%NDP for NDP. But thats the popular vote. The elected or leading numbers are showing 93CPC 80Lib, 37BQ 20NDP 1 OTHER
And, everyone seems to be already saying PC minority. So far so good.
Say It Ain't So
Okay, so all the stations are calling it a CPC (oops I said PC earlier - that "P" has long been lost. Perhaps an "R' would be more approriate ie regressive. Anyway. I heard Bernhard Lord just use the words "Prime minister Harper". What a scary thought.
Oh well - I'm expecting Martin is now out, Probably John Manley will take the leadership, and we'll have another vote perhaps in June or August and then Harper will be gone. I just wonder what sort of a mess we'll be left with in the meantime.
Global Television Conservative Sycophants
Watching a bit of Global - holy frothing conservative suck-ups! They've got these pundits just grinning and claiming that there will be a conservative majority within the year. They're just going on and on about this valhalla that they think they've stumbled into.
It's amazing how out of tune with reality they are. They claim as well that the liberals will be in a 5 year disoriented fratracide session. Man - they are drinking their own kool-aid.
Every riding that isn't a conservative win, they are saying "it's still early, and too close to call", but when it's a conservative lead, they just say "oh yeah, they've won it."
Gotta change the channel - what a bunch of biased suck ups.
NDP Gains, and Greens on the Radar
The popular vote is looking strong for the NDP. Even Olivia Chow is leading in her riding. I think the historic highs for the NDP were 43 seats under Ed Broadbent.
The Greens are leading in a BC riding. THis will be cool to watch. I've seen squat on Ottawa centre to see how the split is going, but I assume Dewar is leading the pack... but I've got nothing to go on there yet.
Good to see Tony Clement is not getting any traction in his on-going bid to get into federal politics. The stink of the Harris provincial government must still be in his laundry.
Hey, there's an independent in Churchill Manitoba still leading. I can't recall seeing anyone ever being elected as an independent in a general election in my lifetime.
Other breaking news, Belinda Stronach has won her riding!
Wha-hoo! Peter Kent has also lost his riding. Ha! He seems like such a dozy goof - glad to see no progress there.
Ken Dryden, my childhood hero has held onto his riding. What politics has to do with goal-tending I don't know, but glad to see him holding on.
Paul Martin has held onto his riding, and (drat) so has MacCallum.
Oh yeah, been meaning to say this during all my blogs, but my least favourite government folk are MacCallum, Pettigrew, and Graham. I'll be happy to see all three no longer in any position.
Interestingly, the numbers on the screen are now showing a green elected or leading, and an other elected or leading!! What an interesting election this one hs turned out to be.
Balance of Power
SO the intersting thing to be resolved so far, is will the NDP hold the balance of power. 102 liberal, and 30 for NDP against the 121 of the PC so far. Now this isn't a done deal yet, with lots of data to come in still. But if the Lib + NDP total is greater than the CPC, then that will be great, as they can trash the CPC quickly when the timing is right... without having to rely on the Bloc to do the deed. Of course, a deal with the devil is possible there. Conservatives and Bloc working together - I wouldn't put it past them.
Finally, Ottawa Centre
Okay, so finally saw that Dewar is taking Ottawa Centre. The CBC not showing the Green numbers strangely. Typical ignoramuses.
Oh- hey figured out that there is an (x) to indicate the incumbant. Not the most obvious indication. I assumed (X) meant leading, as there is coincidence there. Why is it not an (I), one might well ask.
Hold the Phones
What - Tony Clement seems to be winning by about 5 votes! What a wacky switch this is. At least there is an automatic re-count to be had in this case, no doubt. I beleive Elections Canada does one of those when the margin is slim. Will be nice to see him lose if he does.
Also, the other Harris Ontario PC Jim Flaherty seems to have his riding awarded to him. More Harris stink for the country - and speculation that he's got possibilities for the finance minister
Ralph Goodale won his riding. He's pretty eloquant and humble in the face of his voters. I don't beleive there was a leak of any Income Trust policy changes, so that whole ruse was a wash anyway for him, I guess. It's unfortunate that the media went all feeding frenzy on his ass. I'm not much of a fan of the guy normally, but he seems to have a bit of 'humbility'.
Sounds like there is an independent in Quebec - some radio talk-show host. Not sure what that's about, as there's only one independent shown on the scoreboard. Alas, the Green number has dropped off the board. What of the Churchill independent?
My fear is that both the CPC and the Bloc are both unpalatable and ornery enough, that if they form an alliance, we'll be stuck with them, and they'll trash the country.
Hey, Olivia Chow has won her riding. This stinks a little bit of the family business thing that I typically think very little of, but we'll have to wait and see what she can do for her riding. I assume it won't be the same as the crazy husband and wife team (Grewals) caught up in the post-Stronach craziness. Sounds like Gurmant didn't run this time. Don't know about his remote-control wife. Perhaps he's running her only this time.
Later...Yes, his remote control wife Nina did win, and so Gurmant remains in power and incognito. Also, a reprimand from the ethics commissioner just released should ensure he stays in the background somewhat. Wonder if he'll steal his wifes clothes and show up in the house anyway?
Final View, Before Calling it a Night
So I fear that a few weeks from now, the grizzyly right wing true colours will start to show their ugly face.
Ha - some pseudo-journalist is talking to Belinda, suggesting that the leadership of the liberals is in her future! What a joke, as if she'd even have a modicum of support for the position. What a joke. Speaking of Jokes...
Stockwell Day won his riding in Okanagan! This should be good for a laugh - what will they do with him? It would be hilarious to see him as a cabinet minister. What a crock this government is going to be.
Just making a final dent in a bottle of Lot 88 Cabernet Shiraz. A nice drink from Australia that has got me through a nice steak dinner, and through a full evening of election returns.
It's looking now like the following split:
122 CPC; 106Lib; 50BQ, 30NDP, 1IND.
So, gladly the NDP looks like they have a good hold on the balance of power, but of course an alliance between the CPC and the Bloc is more than the Liberals and NDP. So we'll have to see what sort of deal with the devil the CPC will make. With that - I'll take my leave. Unfortunately, the Greens sound like they're out of it for the night. Perhaps next time. I'm glad I could throw a vote their way on a whim, and not risk our riding going in a wacky direction.
Short Snappers
These notes will be updated through the evening, even though it looks like a continuous blog entry.
First results come in from the east coast. They are talking to Peter MacKay in the east, (declared elected), which made me think - this guy has been totally invisible during the entire election!! I've not heard his name mentioned even once during the whole campaign. Anyway, Mackay and the liberal (former PC) Scott Bryson has also been elected.
More results to come, but early going, and it's Liberals leading 24 to 11 to 5 for NDP and a single BQ are the numbers for elected and leading.
Any Americans out there? Unfortunately I'm guessing there is absolutely zero coverage on the entire US cable universe. Too bad... as bad as our Parliamentary system is - it's way better than the US system. It would be nice if you could see REAL democracy in action. Yes, democracy where there are no election irregularities. No ridings (ie electoral districts) where there are more votes cast than voters. No weird machine breakdowns that toss out all the black voters ballots.
Okay - just a little gloating there that the 'bastion of democracy' to the south is so unaware of what's happening with their near biggest economic partner so near to millions of their citizens.
More as it happens
TV Coverage - Sucking Spectacularly
Okay, so finally the results are rolling in, and we're seeing numbers for various ridings here and there. The CBC is showing the lineup of photos of candidates for various ridings and their current scores. BUT THEY DON"T INDICATE WHO THE INCUMBANT IS! What idiots. Isn't that kind of an obvious bit of info we want to know?!!?
Looks like CTV has a little MP on the face that is the encumbant, though I didn't notice it right away.
Okay, even global, the crazy right wing biased channel, has little [i] symbols to indicate incumbant.
Oshawa Swings ?
Hey ho - it looks like Sid Ryan is taking Oshawa? Ha - toasting that Carrie guy. Heard an all-candidates session and Ryan (though a union guy) sounded much more canny than the Carrie guy. Glad to see it swing away from the incumbent loser guy.
Later... Carrie managed to take it afterall. So much for voting based on candidate intelligence. (...and I'm NOT an NDP supporter).
So far it looks strangely like the polls were off, but it's so early who can say.
Scratch that, the share of the vote is still favouring the liberals at 35%lib to 38%CPC to 22%NDP for NDP. But thats the popular vote. The elected or leading numbers are showing 93CPC 80Lib, 37BQ 20NDP 1 OTHER
And, everyone seems to be already saying PC minority. So far so good.
Say It Ain't So
Okay, so all the stations are calling it a CPC (oops I said PC earlier - that "P" has long been lost. Perhaps an "R' would be more approriate ie regressive. Anyway. I heard Bernhard Lord just use the words "Prime minister Harper". What a scary thought.
Oh well - I'm expecting Martin is now out, Probably John Manley will take the leadership, and we'll have another vote perhaps in June or August and then Harper will be gone. I just wonder what sort of a mess we'll be left with in the meantime.
Global Television Conservative Sycophants
Watching a bit of Global - holy frothing conservative suck-ups! They've got these pundits just grinning and claiming that there will be a conservative majority within the year. They're just going on and on about this valhalla that they think they've stumbled into.
It's amazing how out of tune with reality they are. They claim as well that the liberals will be in a 5 year disoriented fratracide session. Man - they are drinking their own kool-aid.
Every riding that isn't a conservative win, they are saying "it's still early, and too close to call", but when it's a conservative lead, they just say "oh yeah, they've won it."
Gotta change the channel - what a bunch of biased suck ups.
NDP Gains, and Greens on the Radar
The popular vote is looking strong for the NDP. Even Olivia Chow is leading in her riding. I think the historic highs for the NDP were 43 seats under Ed Broadbent.
The Greens are leading in a BC riding. THis will be cool to watch. I've seen squat on Ottawa centre to see how the split is going, but I assume Dewar is leading the pack... but I've got nothing to go on there yet.
Good to see Tony Clement is not getting any traction in his on-going bid to get into federal politics. The stink of the Harris provincial government must still be in his laundry.
Hey, there's an independent in Churchill Manitoba still leading. I can't recall seeing anyone ever being elected as an independent in a general election in my lifetime.
Other breaking news, Belinda Stronach has won her riding!
Wha-hoo! Peter Kent has also lost his riding. Ha! He seems like such a dozy goof - glad to see no progress there.
Ken Dryden, my childhood hero has held onto his riding. What politics has to do with goal-tending I don't know, but glad to see him holding on.
Paul Martin has held onto his riding, and (drat) so has MacCallum.
Oh yeah, been meaning to say this during all my blogs, but my least favourite government folk are MacCallum, Pettigrew, and Graham. I'll be happy to see all three no longer in any position.
Interestingly, the numbers on the screen are now showing a green elected or leading, and an other elected or leading!! What an interesting election this one hs turned out to be.
Balance of Power
SO the intersting thing to be resolved so far, is will the NDP hold the balance of power. 102 liberal, and 30 for NDP against the 121 of the PC so far. Now this isn't a done deal yet, with lots of data to come in still. But if the Lib + NDP total is greater than the CPC, then that will be great, as they can trash the CPC quickly when the timing is right... without having to rely on the Bloc to do the deed. Of course, a deal with the devil is possible there. Conservatives and Bloc working together - I wouldn't put it past them.
Finally, Ottawa Centre
Okay, so finally saw that Dewar is taking Ottawa Centre. The CBC not showing the Green numbers strangely. Typical ignoramuses.
Oh- hey figured out that there is an (x) to indicate the incumbant. Not the most obvious indication. I assumed (X) meant leading, as there is coincidence there. Why is it not an (I), one might well ask.
Hold the Phones
What - Tony Clement seems to be winning by about 5 votes! What a wacky switch this is. At least there is an automatic re-count to be had in this case, no doubt. I beleive Elections Canada does one of those when the margin is slim. Will be nice to see him lose if he does.
Also, the other Harris Ontario PC Jim Flaherty seems to have his riding awarded to him. More Harris stink for the country - and speculation that he's got possibilities for the finance minister
Ralph Goodale won his riding. He's pretty eloquant and humble in the face of his voters. I don't beleive there was a leak of any Income Trust policy changes, so that whole ruse was a wash anyway for him, I guess. It's unfortunate that the media went all feeding frenzy on his ass. I'm not much of a fan of the guy normally, but he seems to have a bit of 'humbility'.
Sounds like there is an independent in Quebec - some radio talk-show host. Not sure what that's about, as there's only one independent shown on the scoreboard. Alas, the Green number has dropped off the board. What of the Churchill independent?
My fear is that both the CPC and the Bloc are both unpalatable and ornery enough, that if they form an alliance, we'll be stuck with them, and they'll trash the country.
Hey, Olivia Chow has won her riding. This stinks a little bit of the family business thing that I typically think very little of, but we'll have to wait and see what she can do for her riding. I assume it won't be the same as the crazy husband and wife team (Grewals) caught up in the post-Stronach craziness. Sounds like Gurmant didn't run this time. Don't know about his remote-control wife. Perhaps he's running her only this time.
Later...Yes, his remote control wife Nina did win, and so Gurmant remains in power and incognito. Also, a reprimand from the ethics commissioner just released should ensure he stays in the background somewhat. Wonder if he'll steal his wifes clothes and show up in the house anyway?
Final View, Before Calling it a Night
So I fear that a few weeks from now, the grizzyly right wing true colours will start to show their ugly face.
Ha - some pseudo-journalist is talking to Belinda, suggesting that the leadership of the liberals is in her future! What a joke, as if she'd even have a modicum of support for the position. What a joke. Speaking of Jokes...
Stockwell Day won his riding in Okanagan! This should be good for a laugh - what will they do with him? It would be hilarious to see him as a cabinet minister. What a crock this government is going to be.
Just making a final dent in a bottle of Lot 88 Cabernet Shiraz. A nice drink from Australia that has got me through a nice steak dinner, and through a full evening of election returns.
It's looking now like the following split:
122 CPC; 106Lib; 50BQ, 30NDP, 1IND.
So, gladly the NDP looks like they have a good hold on the balance of power, but of course an alliance between the CPC and the Bloc is more than the Liberals and NDP. So we'll have to see what sort of deal with the devil the CPC will make. With that - I'll take my leave. Unfortunately, the Greens sound like they're out of it for the night. Perhaps next time. I'm glad I could throw a vote their way on a whim, and not risk our riding going in a wacky direction.
Sunday
Settling Marbles
With less than 24 hours remaining until the polls open, the other polls - the opinion polls are purported to be showing some withdrawl from the Conservatives and movement back to the liberals, perhaps at the expense of NDP as well. This according to a pretty good article from the New York Times. More on the International perspective below.
Here's a pretty good site providing forecasting of the seat split. Check out democraticSpace which also seems to show the turn back from a Conservative majority, and a jump in Liberal party fortunes suggesting 127 seats for CPC and 97 for Liberals. The other prediction site previously mentioned has the CPC at less that 120. If the current trend accellerates, we might get closer to my desired outcome, a very, very slim edge for the CPC over the liberals, which will turf out Martin, and ensure the CPC collapses quickly to establish a more centreist government under someone else. Another minority under a new Liberal government with a coalition would be good for making progress on the hill.
People are settling on their decisions now, as we go into supper time gradually across the country, and tomorrow people will mark their ballots and have to live with the outcome that will roll in in the late hours of the evening on monday.
Unfortunately, I never saw an organized 'anyone but the conservatives' campaign muster anywhere, but I get the sense of a deep-rooted visceral rejection of their position among a broad demographic across the country as I watch town-hall type meetings, and listen to phone in content. I worry that the CPC strategy of not saying much (don't disclose the true agenda) and muzzling actual MP candidates will actually work for the less sophisticated voters. A sad comment on the CPC party. I worry about what it means for our country.
The International Read
I think there's a pretty good perspective to be had by tuning in to what journalists with the benefit of some distance say about the race. So here's a round-up of stuff I can find at various reputable media sites. Of course there are biases, but I think the distance provides somewhat of a filter, for better or worse.
The New York Times article on the pending vote.
The Independent has an interesting article that perhaps comes to conclusions a bit too fast. On the positive side, it is speaking to a parliamentary-system-literate audience which allows it to get into a bit more depth than the NYTimes article, and picks up both on Martins' awkwarly run campaign, and on Harper's "North European" slight pretty quickly. It's got a weird perspective on Ignatief in Toronto, painting him as the heir apparent for the Liberal party after Martin gets bumped following an election loss. I guess he's known to Britons from a BBC2 tenure of some kind.
New Zealand's Herald has an article picked up on Friday from Reuters that takes a bit of a different tack. (It's great to see all these different spins!) This article focusses more on the encumbant Liberals fight to the finish, a CPAC poll dividing the race at 37 to 31% in favour of the CPC's and takes Harper's comments about 'not addressing abortion in the near term' at face value, without pointing out the criticisms about skirting any issues that would expose the socially conservative and ugly underbelly of their hidden agenda.
Australia's Sydney Morning Herald has an article about Bon Jovi's plane slipping off the runway in Hamilton, but nothing about the Canadian election recently. The paper seems a bit of a rag based on the focus of the bulk of their articles (lots of hollywood) - plus their page is pretty heavy, and slow loading.
Australia's Daily Telegraph has quite a good article, covering issues, other parties and with a pretty balanced approach. Heck, they even use the word 'extremist' near Harper's name. Nice to see some recognition of that criticsm, while still putting his view forward.
The LATimes has the barest minimum of an article. To it's credit, it does give a great overview of the numbers involved, in terms of seats and the mechanics of the government. But it's got that typical American audience need for an explanation about parliamentary democracy. It covers all the issues in two short sentences. Not quite the coverage you'd expect a major city to have for their country's largest trading partner (or second now apparently) going to the polls! Typical myopia.
Record Turnout Expected
It should be interesting to see the turn-out numbers. I'm expecting more than 60,000 votes cast in our riding of Ottawa Centre. It will also be interesting to watch the overall numbers. My sense is that the extra effort seen in attending advance polls will manifest itself in strongly higher numbers on election day as well.
The liberals probably have the most to gain from this, although I get the feeling that the other left-leaning parties may as well benefit. But what do I know - I think I get a skewed view of the world from the confines of my left-leaning riding. Then again, there is a large pro-green display in the window of a prominent 'yoga clothing' store in Westboro. It attempts to show the Greens as the only viable choice, and highlight an issue with each of the other three parties. They seemed to be a bit weak on what to criticize for the NDP, colouring them as pot-heads! That's a weird one... I think they're mixing them up with the marajuana party. And what more pot-head group can you find than a store for yoga clothing!
Here's a pretty good site providing forecasting of the seat split. Check out democraticSpace which also seems to show the turn back from a Conservative majority, and a jump in Liberal party fortunes suggesting 127 seats for CPC and 97 for Liberals. The other prediction site previously mentioned has the CPC at less that 120. If the current trend accellerates, we might get closer to my desired outcome, a very, very slim edge for the CPC over the liberals, which will turf out Martin, and ensure the CPC collapses quickly to establish a more centreist government under someone else. Another minority under a new Liberal government with a coalition would be good for making progress on the hill.
People are settling on their decisions now, as we go into supper time gradually across the country, and tomorrow people will mark their ballots and have to live with the outcome that will roll in in the late hours of the evening on monday.
Unfortunately, I never saw an organized 'anyone but the conservatives' campaign muster anywhere, but I get the sense of a deep-rooted visceral rejection of their position among a broad demographic across the country as I watch town-hall type meetings, and listen to phone in content. I worry that the CPC strategy of not saying much (don't disclose the true agenda) and muzzling actual MP candidates will actually work for the less sophisticated voters. A sad comment on the CPC party. I worry about what it means for our country.
The International Read
I think there's a pretty good perspective to be had by tuning in to what journalists with the benefit of some distance say about the race. So here's a round-up of stuff I can find at various reputable media sites. Of course there are biases, but I think the distance provides somewhat of a filter, for better or worse.
The New York Times article on the pending vote.
The Independent has an interesting article that perhaps comes to conclusions a bit too fast. On the positive side, it is speaking to a parliamentary-system-literate audience which allows it to get into a bit more depth than the NYTimes article, and picks up both on Martins' awkwarly run campaign, and on Harper's "North European" slight pretty quickly. It's got a weird perspective on Ignatief in Toronto, painting him as the heir apparent for the Liberal party after Martin gets bumped following an election loss. I guess he's known to Britons from a BBC2 tenure of some kind.
New Zealand's Herald has an article picked up on Friday from Reuters that takes a bit of a different tack. (It's great to see all these different spins!) This article focusses more on the encumbant Liberals fight to the finish, a CPAC poll dividing the race at 37 to 31% in favour of the CPC's and takes Harper's comments about 'not addressing abortion in the near term' at face value, without pointing out the criticisms about skirting any issues that would expose the socially conservative and ugly underbelly of their hidden agenda.
Australia's Sydney Morning Herald has an article about Bon Jovi's plane slipping off the runway in Hamilton, but nothing about the Canadian election recently. The paper seems a bit of a rag based on the focus of the bulk of their articles (lots of hollywood) - plus their page is pretty heavy, and slow loading.
Australia's Daily Telegraph has quite a good article, covering issues, other parties and with a pretty balanced approach. Heck, they even use the word 'extremist' near Harper's name. Nice to see some recognition of that criticsm, while still putting his view forward.
The LATimes has the barest minimum of an article. To it's credit, it does give a great overview of the numbers involved, in terms of seats and the mechanics of the government. But it's got that typical American audience need for an explanation about parliamentary democracy. It covers all the issues in two short sentences. Not quite the coverage you'd expect a major city to have for their country's largest trading partner (or second now apparently) going to the polls! Typical myopia.
Record Turnout Expected
It should be interesting to see the turn-out numbers. I'm expecting more than 60,000 votes cast in our riding of Ottawa Centre. It will also be interesting to watch the overall numbers. My sense is that the extra effort seen in attending advance polls will manifest itself in strongly higher numbers on election day as well.
The liberals probably have the most to gain from this, although I get the feeling that the other left-leaning parties may as well benefit. But what do I know - I think I get a skewed view of the world from the confines of my left-leaning riding. Then again, there is a large pro-green display in the window of a prominent 'yoga clothing' store in Westboro. It attempts to show the Greens as the only viable choice, and highlight an issue with each of the other three parties. They seemed to be a bit weak on what to criticize for the NDP, colouring them as pot-heads! That's a weird one... I think they're mixing them up with the marajuana party. And what more pot-head group can you find than a store for yoga clothing!
Thursday
Fear Week
Given that opinion polls might be a bit wonky, given the very high refusal rates and such, the numbers may have an unintended impact, in that voters are getting innundated with numbers that suggest a Conservative win, and perhaps a slim majority.
That's scary to alot of people - notwithstanding the inane attempts of the Liberals to capitalize on that with marginal ads - people are turning on their strategic voting calculators now.
How do you vote strategically? Part of it depends a lot on your particular riding. The biggest risk of strategic voting is splitting the vote on the wrong side of the equation. Now, given that the right is pretty well owned by the Conservatives, with the liberals dancing over the centre-line sometimes with conservative fiscal policy, we're pretty much talking about two camps here - the anyone-but-the-conservatives faction and conservatives.
Now, in Ottawa-Centre, a case in point. My perception is that the conservative candidate (who just run my phone with a taped message - what an annoying approach) is pretty far back. This riding has been NDP and Liberal for a long while. I perceive a tight 3-way race. If Mr Dewar for the NDP hauls out the "I have the same shoe size as Ed Broadbent" routine one more time, I think he'll lose the lead. Mr. Chernushenko for the the Green party may have a shot at being the first Green in Canada to get a seat. And the Liberal Guy who's name I'm trying to forget, is a weak third I'm guessing. But here, the voters on the centre and left of the spectrum can actually vote with their gut, rather than stategically. Since the conservatives may get about 5000-8000 tops out of 60,000 voters there's not much of an 'up the middle' strategy available for this Fountain character.
(Later... Post election the number turns out to be 66,000 voters!)
Broadbent won the riding last time with about 25k votes. I suspect the winner will be in the 18-20 range this time, but voting will undoubtably be much higher, hence my expectation that there will be in the range of 60k or more votes cast.
CBC Wakes Up
Compared to most media, I'm usually fairly satisfied with the CBC balance. They drift off towards the 23 year old pot smoker sometimes, but by and large they provide balance.
The last few weeks have been abyssmal though. They've let Harper's handlers drive their agenda. I can't beleive they led the news with a Harper story almost every edition. You think they'd say, gee, they're trying a ploy to manipulate us... but they haven't been very sophisticated at the production level. I mean, in the interest of balance, I'm sure they could look at lead-story allignment and make an effort to use something from one of the other campaigns occasionally. They're all doing 'stuff' every day.
At very least become more introspective and make the story "Harper's campaign continues the ploy to drive the nightly news through inane daily announcements" Why not do something like that?
CBC must realize that given a majority Conservative position, a lot of them are out of work. The station will be privatized. I wonder how they like producing telethon segments a la your closest PBS station instead of political coverage. "Operators are standing by. If you enjoy these incessant BBC mystery dramas set in the 70's, call now and donate". And "This hour has 22 Minutes" will sell squat on US Cable. Rick Mercer will just be a weird guy who talks funny, from "New Finland" to American audiences.
Well, anyway this morning on CBC radio Anna Maria Tremonte had a couple of great guests - the publisher of Harper's magazine in the US, Rick MacArthur, and a Conservative pundit, who writes for a variety of US right-leaning papers (and his name escapes me). It was a great bit. You can listen to it here: The Current Stream" Find the stream for Jan 19/06 and listen to the first segment (probably only available on the 20th or later).
A bit confusing that the liberally oriented magazine in the US should be called "Harper's" but whadaya-going to do? The gist of the conversation was that MacArthur lamented a Bush-suck-up leader, albeit probably not as extremist as bush, coming to power in Canada - beacon of sanity in the free world, and model for where Americans wished their country stood (his sentiments.) The conservative pundit next commented that Harper is a good start, but he's still way less conservative than they would like. To his credit, he commented that we have the stronger position on softwood lumber, and so Harper will be able to stand firm there.
MacArthur touched on a point that wasn't pursued - but one which I'm lamenting myself. He said that the merger between Reform and PC's resulted in a softening of the Reform agenda, unless they've just learned to market themselves better. Duh! This was further driven home by comments that Bush came to power as a Centerist "lets clean up those pesky, corrupt Democrats" candidate. This is the same thing all over again! Play moderate on the campaign trail, and disclose your true radical colours when in power.
I'm amazed how thin the veil is. Harper was even talking 'American Style' about our checks and balances in the Juciciary which he claims will still be Liberal for a long time due to appointments. What the hell is that? It sounds like a CNN soundbyte. Does he want to get our Senate to hold hearings for new Supreme Court judges? Man this stuff is scary. Does he think the judiciary is working some evil liberal agenda, rather than applying the laws according to our constitution?
Score One for Mansbridge
I was impressed that during an 'town-hall' style interview with Peter Mansbridge hosting, and talking to Jack Layton, they used some pointed questions. He put Layton on the spot to answer a few questions from audience members around which he was widely skirting. I liked how he particularly button holed him on the "Corruption" thing. There's no evidence of corruption of any of the liberal MP's, he pointed out, so why are you using the word "corruption" in your speeches and ads. Layton didn't have much of an answer, and tried to do the usual non-answer "I think that Turkish Cuisine is a particularly delicate balance of sweet and savory" "Yeah, but the question Mr. Layton"
Good Forecasting Site
So there we have it:
So to vote strategically, how do you know which way things are headed, without using the skewed opinion polls? Here's an option. This website gathers riding by riding opinions on which way the area is headed. Who better to estimate the direction than the people voting there. And they've been around long enough to have a track record, which is pretty good.
http://electionprediction.org/
Right now, it looks like a pretty good outcome to my thinking. 97CPC, 77Lib, 17NDP, 55Bloc and 66 too close to call. IF the split sticks that way it would be a minority at least. Althought an unscrupulous deal between Bloc and CPC isn't unlikely. But at least Martin would be dumped, and hopefully some vestiges of the Liberal divide between Martinites and Chretienites might be erased. Then there could be another election shortly after with a better outcome, including the dumping of Harper.
Ideal outcome would be something like 114CPC, 113Lib 32NDP, 3Green, 46Bloc
That would be great, some enviro pressure from Greens, Martin gone, strengthened NDP, and weakened Bloc. Another vote 6 months later, Harper gone.
I think this is one of those devil we don't know wishes.
That's scary to alot of people - notwithstanding the inane attempts of the Liberals to capitalize on that with marginal ads - people are turning on their strategic voting calculators now.
How do you vote strategically? Part of it depends a lot on your particular riding. The biggest risk of strategic voting is splitting the vote on the wrong side of the equation. Now, given that the right is pretty well owned by the Conservatives, with the liberals dancing over the centre-line sometimes with conservative fiscal policy, we're pretty much talking about two camps here - the anyone-but-the-conservatives faction and conservatives.
Now, in Ottawa-Centre, a case in point. My perception is that the conservative candidate (who just run my phone with a taped message - what an annoying approach) is pretty far back. This riding has been NDP and Liberal for a long while. I perceive a tight 3-way race. If Mr Dewar for the NDP hauls out the "I have the same shoe size as Ed Broadbent" routine one more time, I think he'll lose the lead. Mr. Chernushenko for the the Green party may have a shot at being the first Green in Canada to get a seat. And the Liberal Guy who's name I'm trying to forget, is a weak third I'm guessing. But here, the voters on the centre and left of the spectrum can actually vote with their gut, rather than stategically. Since the conservatives may get about 5000-8000 tops out of 60,000 voters there's not much of an 'up the middle' strategy available for this Fountain character.
(Later... Post election the number turns out to be 66,000 voters!)
Broadbent won the riding last time with about 25k votes. I suspect the winner will be in the 18-20 range this time, but voting will undoubtably be much higher, hence my expectation that there will be in the range of 60k or more votes cast.
CBC Wakes Up
Compared to most media, I'm usually fairly satisfied with the CBC balance. They drift off towards the 23 year old pot smoker sometimes, but by and large they provide balance.
The last few weeks have been abyssmal though. They've let Harper's handlers drive their agenda. I can't beleive they led the news with a Harper story almost every edition. You think they'd say, gee, they're trying a ploy to manipulate us... but they haven't been very sophisticated at the production level. I mean, in the interest of balance, I'm sure they could look at lead-story allignment and make an effort to use something from one of the other campaigns occasionally. They're all doing 'stuff' every day.
At very least become more introspective and make the story "Harper's campaign continues the ploy to drive the nightly news through inane daily announcements" Why not do something like that?
CBC must realize that given a majority Conservative position, a lot of them are out of work. The station will be privatized. I wonder how they like producing telethon segments a la your closest PBS station instead of political coverage. "Operators are standing by. If you enjoy these incessant BBC mystery dramas set in the 70's, call now and donate". And "This hour has 22 Minutes" will sell squat on US Cable. Rick Mercer will just be a weird guy who talks funny, from "New Finland" to American audiences.
Well, anyway this morning on CBC radio Anna Maria Tremonte had a couple of great guests - the publisher of Harper's magazine in the US, Rick MacArthur, and a Conservative pundit, who writes for a variety of US right-leaning papers (and his name escapes me). It was a great bit. You can listen to it here: The Current Stream" Find the stream for Jan 19/06 and listen to the first segment (probably only available on the 20th or later).
A bit confusing that the liberally oriented magazine in the US should be called "Harper's" but whadaya-going to do? The gist of the conversation was that MacArthur lamented a Bush-suck-up leader, albeit probably not as extremist as bush, coming to power in Canada - beacon of sanity in the free world, and model for where Americans wished their country stood (his sentiments.) The conservative pundit next commented that Harper is a good start, but he's still way less conservative than they would like. To his credit, he commented that we have the stronger position on softwood lumber, and so Harper will be able to stand firm there.
MacArthur touched on a point that wasn't pursued - but one which I'm lamenting myself. He said that the merger between Reform and PC's resulted in a softening of the Reform agenda, unless they've just learned to market themselves better. Duh! This was further driven home by comments that Bush came to power as a Centerist "lets clean up those pesky, corrupt Democrats" candidate. This is the same thing all over again! Play moderate on the campaign trail, and disclose your true radical colours when in power.
I'm amazed how thin the veil is. Harper was even talking 'American Style' about our checks and balances in the Juciciary which he claims will still be Liberal for a long time due to appointments. What the hell is that? It sounds like a CNN soundbyte. Does he want to get our Senate to hold hearings for new Supreme Court judges? Man this stuff is scary. Does he think the judiciary is working some evil liberal agenda, rather than applying the laws according to our constitution?
Score One for Mansbridge
I was impressed that during an 'town-hall' style interview with Peter Mansbridge hosting, and talking to Jack Layton, they used some pointed questions. He put Layton on the spot to answer a few questions from audience members around which he was widely skirting. I liked how he particularly button holed him on the "Corruption" thing. There's no evidence of corruption of any of the liberal MP's, he pointed out, so why are you using the word "corruption" in your speeches and ads. Layton didn't have much of an answer, and tried to do the usual non-answer "I think that Turkish Cuisine is a particularly delicate balance of sweet and savory" "Yeah, but the question Mr. Layton"
Good Forecasting Site
So there we have it:
- Conservatives hidden right wing agenda to gut our country and 'erase' the Canada/US border
- Liberals still recovering from the Martin/Chretien coup attempts and unable to run a campaign, and doing a half-assed job of governing
- NDP, wrapped up in political double speak, and ignoring Conservative ridings and criticism
- Greens, a bit of a flakey core to their platform, and no only the slimmest chance of electing a single MP
- Bloc, irrelevant to everyone, including about 60% of Quebecers
So to vote strategically, how do you know which way things are headed, without using the skewed opinion polls? Here's an option. This website gathers riding by riding opinions on which way the area is headed. Who better to estimate the direction than the people voting there. And they've been around long enough to have a track record, which is pretty good.
http://electionprediction.org/
Right now, it looks like a pretty good outcome to my thinking. 97CPC, 77Lib, 17NDP, 55Bloc and 66 too close to call. IF the split sticks that way it would be a minority at least. Althought an unscrupulous deal between Bloc and CPC isn't unlikely. But at least Martin would be dumped, and hopefully some vestiges of the Liberal divide between Martinites and Chretienites might be erased. Then there could be another election shortly after with a better outcome, including the dumping of Harper.
Ideal outcome would be something like 114CPC, 113Lib 32NDP, 3Green, 46Bloc
That would be great, some enviro pressure from Greens, Martin gone, strengthened NDP, and weakened Bloc. Another vote 6 months later, Harper gone.
I think this is one of those devil we don't know wishes.
Tuesday
Are the Polls Accurate?
There sure has been a change in the polls, according to all the media sources. I always feel a the dirt oozing out of the press this time in an election campaign as certain media sources switch from simple bias to outright support of a party. Newspapers seem particularly bad for this. But anyway, that's just me.
On another note - here are things I wish the media would repeat more often - just simple facts, no bias required:
Some stuff the Liberals should say (if they were running a better campaign).
Okay so that last they could never say, but I'm sure it's true
I've actually voted already - in Ottawa Centre - because my SO is going to be away on election day. As we went to the advanced poll, I figured I may as well vote then too.
I might have voted differently if I was to do it again today. Heard some decent interviews with Jack Layton, and figured he might be a decent choice. He talked about some of my favourite topics all around electoral reform. Namely - popular vote versus results and women in parliament.
I wish that someone could get a good vote for anyone-but-the-conservatives campaign going. I'm frightened we've got our on US experience about to start, with a religious right agenda sullying our government. Code words are flying around to hide the real words like intollerance, racism, destroying our national identity, erasing the Canada/US border, and eroding our social programs, health care principals and generally taking us back in a regressive regime.
C'mon people look at your ridings and choose anyone but them. Just think... Stockwell Day as our Foreign Affairs Minister.
On another note - here are things I wish the media would repeat more often - just simple facts, no bias required:
- The "Conservatives" are the Reform and PC's combined, with many PC's having bailed out.
- Stockwell Day would presumably be the new Minister of External Affairs
- Polls are not very accurate anymore, as many people have cell phones, and refusal rates are very high.
Some stuff the Liberals should say (if they were running a better campaign).
- Canada has the only surplus in the G8, and we're leading western nations in growth. If you want change, how exactly would you like those numbers to change?
- There was not $200Million in lost money in the sponsorship scam - most of that went into spending on programs. There were a few millions stolen, but a bunch has been recovered.
- Chuck Guité practiced his craft in under the conservatives & Mulroney
- The sponsorship scam is not a bunch of crooked liberals - it's a bunch of crooked Quebec politicians and their cronies. There are probably just as many in among the other parties in that same circle of Montreal elitist politics & business types. BC is another hotbed of crooked politicians typically. And there are more peppered about the country. There are likely more in the Conservatives, fewer in the NDP - and the tree-hugging Greens are probably mostly clean.
Okay so that last they could never say, but I'm sure it's true
I've actually voted already - in Ottawa Centre - because my SO is going to be away on election day. As we went to the advanced poll, I figured I may as well vote then too.
I might have voted differently if I was to do it again today. Heard some decent interviews with Jack Layton, and figured he might be a decent choice. He talked about some of my favourite topics all around electoral reform. Namely - popular vote versus results and women in parliament.
I wish that someone could get a good vote for anyone-but-the-conservatives campaign going. I'm frightened we've got our on US experience about to start, with a religious right agenda sullying our government. Code words are flying around to hide the real words like intollerance, racism, destroying our national identity, erasing the Canada/US border, and eroding our social programs, health care principals and generally taking us back in a regressive regime.
C'mon people look at your ridings and choose anyone but them. Just think... Stockwell Day as our Foreign Affairs Minister.
Saturday
Returning to Canada to Find A Mess
Okay, right after New Years, I went off on a business trip to the US, and getting back into the saddle on the 11th of January, the whole landscape has changed.
I was wondering why the media was so happy to play along with the "Conservative" spin leading into Christmas: always leading with the Harper daily announcement, and it's imploded on itself now. All the coverage seems to be based on whatever the Conservative spinners are delivering and nobody is analyzing the spin from the fact. Must be that the CBC at least is run by 20-year-old ingenues who don't have enough life experience to detect when they are being spun.
It appears that they are all predicting a conservative win now. The scary part about predicting a minority is that voters think - "oh, I'm contributing to the minority, which is a good thing, rather than a majority - yikes." But when everyone does that, you get a majority anyway - case-in-point: the NDP Ontario government of a couple of decades back.
The worst bit of Journalism I've seen is the media coverage of the Liberal "Soldiers with Guns" ad - there was a clearly staged Conservative old-timer soldier protest, and the coverage of it was "here's a protest - soldiers are outraged" not - "The conservatives set up this lame protest"
And nobody is pointing out that the "Conservatives" are not the conservatives... but rather a bunch of Reformers in Sheeps' clothing.
The only thing scarier than a fascist party is a fascist party that has learned to dress themselves up as acceptable moderates. When they realize that it works, and people forget what they were 15 minutes ago, they get these weird grins of delight.
More on the rest of the campaign later.
I was wondering why the media was so happy to play along with the "Conservative" spin leading into Christmas: always leading with the Harper daily announcement, and it's imploded on itself now. All the coverage seems to be based on whatever the Conservative spinners are delivering and nobody is analyzing the spin from the fact. Must be that the CBC at least is run by 20-year-old ingenues who don't have enough life experience to detect when they are being spun.
It appears that they are all predicting a conservative win now. The scary part about predicting a minority is that voters think - "oh, I'm contributing to the minority, which is a good thing, rather than a majority - yikes." But when everyone does that, you get a majority anyway - case-in-point: the NDP Ontario government of a couple of decades back.
The worst bit of Journalism I've seen is the media coverage of the Liberal "Soldiers with Guns" ad - there was a clearly staged Conservative old-timer soldier protest, and the coverage of it was "here's a protest - soldiers are outraged" not - "The conservatives set up this lame protest"
And nobody is pointing out that the "Conservatives" are not the conservatives... but rather a bunch of Reformers in Sheeps' clothing.
The only thing scarier than a fascist party is a fascist party that has learned to dress themselves up as acceptable moderates. When they realize that it works, and people forget what they were 15 minutes ago, they get these weird grins of delight.
More on the rest of the campaign later.
Friday
Christmas Quiet Period
As we get into the Christmas period, all parties vow to spend it with their families and stay off the campaign trail. Not sure how well they will stick to this, but let's watch.
I liked Martin's approach to this announcement: "My wife says I'll be spending my time at home" or some such comment. Nice slightly mysogynistic, old 'ball and chain' comment. Way to win the votes of younger folk.
Harper just grins his creepy grin and talks about home and family because he figures that's what his religious right base is looking for.
Layton and his wife are both running, so I suspect they will both be stapling signs to posts between gift wrapping.
I'll be interested to see how the start of January plays out.
I liked Martin's approach to this announcement: "My wife says I'll be spending my time at home" or some such comment. Nice slightly mysogynistic, old 'ball and chain' comment. Way to win the votes of younger folk.
Harper just grins his creepy grin and talks about home and family because he figures that's what his religious right base is looking for.
Layton and his wife are both running, so I suspect they will both be stapling signs to posts between gift wrapping.
I'll be interested to see how the start of January plays out.
Wednesday
Heating Up the Campaign Trail
Is that Snow melting that I see? With recent heat on the campaign trail, I would expect it to be. The media attention is still being driven my Mr. Harper it seems. Often coverage will start with one of his statements, and occasionally contrast someone elses position on the topic.
Today though, US Ambassador Wilkins has weighed into the election - no doubt on direct guidance from the US Whitehouse administration. He's made fairly poorly worded comments about Martin (not mentioned by name but clear) dissing the US for political points.
The motivation, some news sources are saying, is that the Bushites would like to see a more conservative government here (duh) aka, the other right wing party, that of Mr. Harper. Ambassador Wilkins' comments about criticising your friends while expecting respect from them are rather misplaced on three fronts.
First of all, the only respect Canadians have been demanding from the US is respect for very specific trade agreements, on all rulings have supported us, and on which the US continues to renege. They on the otherhand are PO'd at the fact that many other countries have reduced respect for them given recent foreign-policy and environmental decisions.
Second, in the face of hostile and illegal US handling of our softwood lumber trade, if our PM didn't express disapproval, he would be severly beaten up by voters and the opposition parties.
Finally, if the US administrations goal is to undermine the Liberal campaign by expressing disapproval, this is another of their patented misunderstandings of what goes on outside their borders. Showing disapproval for Martin, and approval of Harper is a very large barrage of nails in the Conservative election coffin. That's majority-making material for Liberal election outcomes.
Meanwhile, Liberals are taking heat for an aide's comment that if Harper's $100 per child payment to parents went ahead, there would be nothing stopping it from being spent on "beer and popcorn." Am I the only one who's going "wha???" Not because the statment colloquially captures an accurate issue about some percentage of the recipients using the funds poorly, but more because this is a Liberal comment trashing a potential poorly directed social payment proposed by conservatives. Will the real conservative party please stand up! Strange roll reversal.
In spite of media attempts to make the comment catch fire, my perception is that it doesn't have any legs, and the story will fade out quickly.
One last thought on the US-Canada relations front - I regularly check various global newspapers - including a couple of US ones - the LA Times, NY Times. Coverage there of the Montreal Conference statements about the US do not single out Canada as trashing them, but rather highlight a global condemnation of the lack of American alignment with global enviro-movement. Canadian Media should look a bit more at how our relations with our southern friends are playing from other perspectives.
Green Party coverage on CBC last night was suprising. What sticks with me, not much other than that they were covering the Green Party. I guess there are a couple of points. The Deputy-Leader of the Greens pulled a full-stronach and crossed the virtual "floor" to run for the Liberals. The Green's leader Jim Harris (I had to surf off to greenparty.ca to get that name) is saying that this is a compliment to the party's strength and ability to drive the issues that a prominent member of their organization was snatched by the party in power. I can kind of see that.... with a bit more success along those lines though, there won't be a green party left!
I also retained the info that the Greens had apparently run a candidate in every riding in the last election! I was suprised to hear that. Presumably they have no federal funding, since they didn't get any seats, so to do that on their own (donated) coin is impressive... kind of smells of grsss roots support. This immediately made me think the funding laws need fundamental changes, as the Bloc must get a big bag of funding, but with concentration of their members in one geographic area, that kind of seems unfair that such a small portion of their budget will be needed for travel!
The final point I wanted to make on this is that it makes a strong case for revisiting our method of voting. Something that takes into account people's second choice, or maybe their "don't want" choice seems strongly needed here for some real democracy. Imagine a situation where all voters are leaning toward the left, with a small portion thinking right. With (theoretically) 3 parties splitting the left vote, and one party on the extreme right, we could end up with a right-ist government that is supported by about 20% of Canadians.
What if we had a system where you voted for someone and against someone in your riding? Then you add up all the "fors" and subtract the "againsts" and you end up with a winner. At least if everyone has an "Everyone but Bob" sentiment we don't get stuck with Bob.
The only guys I didn't mention this go around is the NDP. My only retained thoughts there are that they seem to have a pretty decent ad campaign, certainly compared to that high-school project Conservative crap, and the testimonial based Liberal "forget-about-our-leader-for-a-minute-won't-ya?" campaign. They're also doing one other thing good, they're not getting any foot-in-mouth time. That's a good steady-as-she-goes approach.
The Conservative ads have one smart element - the cheesy trailer-sign "Stand up for Canada" idea. Regardless of the jingo-istic, manipulative, us-and-them nature of the comment, I think the device is a good one, as it can spawn people who do that to their own signs, thus creating some grass-roots momentum for them. They really need to lose the format of the rest of the ad though - whoof.
Today though, US Ambassador Wilkins has weighed into the election - no doubt on direct guidance from the US Whitehouse administration. He's made fairly poorly worded comments about Martin (not mentioned by name but clear) dissing the US for political points.
The motivation, some news sources are saying, is that the Bushites would like to see a more conservative government here (duh) aka, the other right wing party, that of Mr. Harper. Ambassador Wilkins' comments about criticising your friends while expecting respect from them are rather misplaced on three fronts.
First of all, the only respect Canadians have been demanding from the US is respect for very specific trade agreements, on all rulings have supported us, and on which the US continues to renege. They on the otherhand are PO'd at the fact that many other countries have reduced respect for them given recent foreign-policy and environmental decisions.
Second, in the face of hostile and illegal US handling of our softwood lumber trade, if our PM didn't express disapproval, he would be severly beaten up by voters and the opposition parties.
Finally, if the US administrations goal is to undermine the Liberal campaign by expressing disapproval, this is another of their patented misunderstandings of what goes on outside their borders. Showing disapproval for Martin, and approval of Harper is a very large barrage of nails in the Conservative election coffin. That's majority-making material for Liberal election outcomes.
Meanwhile, Liberals are taking heat for an aide's comment that if Harper's $100 per child payment to parents went ahead, there would be nothing stopping it from being spent on "beer and popcorn." Am I the only one who's going "wha???" Not because the statment colloquially captures an accurate issue about some percentage of the recipients using the funds poorly, but more because this is a Liberal comment trashing a potential poorly directed social payment proposed by conservatives. Will the real conservative party please stand up! Strange roll reversal.
In spite of media attempts to make the comment catch fire, my perception is that it doesn't have any legs, and the story will fade out quickly.
One last thought on the US-Canada relations front - I regularly check various global newspapers - including a couple of US ones - the LA Times, NY Times. Coverage there of the Montreal Conference statements about the US do not single out Canada as trashing them, but rather highlight a global condemnation of the lack of American alignment with global enviro-movement. Canadian Media should look a bit more at how our relations with our southern friends are playing from other perspectives.
Green Party coverage on CBC last night was suprising. What sticks with me, not much other than that they were covering the Green Party. I guess there are a couple of points. The Deputy-Leader of the Greens pulled a full-stronach and crossed the virtual "floor" to run for the Liberals. The Green's leader Jim Harris (I had to surf off to greenparty.ca to get that name) is saying that this is a compliment to the party's strength and ability to drive the issues that a prominent member of their organization was snatched by the party in power. I can kind of see that.... with a bit more success along those lines though, there won't be a green party left!
I also retained the info that the Greens had apparently run a candidate in every riding in the last election! I was suprised to hear that. Presumably they have no federal funding, since they didn't get any seats, so to do that on their own (donated) coin is impressive... kind of smells of grsss roots support. This immediately made me think the funding laws need fundamental changes, as the Bloc must get a big bag of funding, but with concentration of their members in one geographic area, that kind of seems unfair that such a small portion of their budget will be needed for travel!
The final point I wanted to make on this is that it makes a strong case for revisiting our method of voting. Something that takes into account people's second choice, or maybe their "don't want" choice seems strongly needed here for some real democracy. Imagine a situation where all voters are leaning toward the left, with a small portion thinking right. With (theoretically) 3 parties splitting the left vote, and one party on the extreme right, we could end up with a right-ist government that is supported by about 20% of Canadians.
What if we had a system where you voted for someone and against someone in your riding? Then you add up all the "fors" and subtract the "againsts" and you end up with a winner. At least if everyone has an "Everyone but Bob" sentiment we don't get stuck with Bob.
The only guys I didn't mention this go around is the NDP. My only retained thoughts there are that they seem to have a pretty decent ad campaign, certainly compared to that high-school project Conservative crap, and the testimonial based Liberal "forget-about-our-leader-for-a-minute-won't-ya?" campaign. They're also doing one other thing good, they're not getting any foot-in-mouth time. That's a good steady-as-she-goes approach.
The Conservative ads have one smart element - the cheesy trailer-sign "Stand up for Canada" idea. Regardless of the jingo-istic, manipulative, us-and-them nature of the comment, I think the device is a good one, as it can spawn people who do that to their own signs, thus creating some grass-roots momentum for them. They really need to lose the format of the rest of the ad though - whoof.
Sunday
Pre-Christmas Strategies Laid Out
So it's been going now for almost two weeks -and the path forward is reasonably clear. The challenge is that all the parties see the pre-Christmas period as a bit of a throw-away. They don't want to be seen as complacent - because they know the others will accuse them as being disinterested. They don't want to lay out their entire platform, because they still want to have some stuff to announce in early January to garner some headlines.
But, there is the first debate coming up in Vancouver shortly, and it's a bit tough to go into a debate without some planks in your platform, or you won't have much to stand on when it comes to pushing your points. Lets hope the first debate can be moderated with a bit of structure and not turn into an exercise in simultaneous talking.
The media coverage has been as entertaining as the party performance. Global news seems to be a broken record, as probably the most biased "news" coverage in the country (from a so-called Nation-wide station) they are playing a single track. Each newscast seems to say "The Liberals are slipping in the polls" and then they play tons of Harper announcements and get (vaguely supportive) reactions. CTV and CBC coverage seems to be more balanced, but CBC policy seems to be talking out both sides of their mouth. I applaud their idea in the last election to not focus on the Polls, as that approach can create the old self-fulfilling-prophesy-syndrome. And, of course, that is why some polling companies seem to push their preferred parties. Announce it and the public will say "Jeeze, the Liberals are slipping - no way I'm going to support those losers."
But, while they started their cowverage off saying they would again refrain from reporting on Polls once the campaign started, I seem to see a lot of poll coverage on their organs. The CBC One radio coverage even started with poll info on the News lead-in at least once in the last few days.
Kudo's to Mike Duffy on CTV for commenting on the Conservative lame-o advertising. I've been pointing out how the Harper ads look like crap. Some deer-in-the-headlights actor playing a woman journalist 'interviewing' Harper, and graphics, effects and copy that sound like it was a high school project.
Mike Duffy was commenting on the Conservative advertising in Quebec, trying to counter the Bloc, and mentioned that the ads in English Canada look like they were put together by a group of kids in advertising school. Glad to see that others are noting that.
Not sure what kind of a message it sends to voters to appear amateurish and klunky, when you want to project that you can run the country. That's probably the biggest benefit to the Liberals out their right now, in my humble opinion.
I think it is the intangible sense of a parties style that makes or breaks the shiftable vote. There is a big chunk of voters out there who will vote a certain way barring anything but a major meltdown. When it comes to the crucial Ontario vote (in terms of swinging the size of the coming minority), credibility based on subtle perception will be most important.
So in closing this brief commentary, here's my perspective of how things are looking currently.
Conservatives: Awkward, walking on eggshells, throwing out announcements willy-nilly, most of which are based on news-hooks and sound bites. Driving the media seems to be working in terms of getting lead-story time.
Liberals: Project the we're busy governing, and are the only competant party look. Largely keeping the powder dry until after Xmas, and setting up photo op's that paint a flattering picture
NDP: The usual differentiation strategy - we're not like those guys - with an astute chunk of milking the influence they were able to weild in the minority parliament.
Greens: Hey we're here and we don't get much respect. They seem to be saying we're more than just the environment, but they are not punching through with the big messages. They need some good beefy, solid maple in their platform. Two or three planks that aren't overtly environment, but that they can repeat to the point of nausea, where-upon the media will finally get it.
Bloc: Just keeps hyping the big bad liberals: "THEY" did this to "US" The federalist forces really need to find a sensitive way to say that the "THEY" in this case is a bunch of corrupt Quebecers. Put in the Bloc and you can just as easily have another big raft of corrupt Quebecers. Liberals should point out that they will be extra careful going forward, given their current black eyes, and will thus be more squeaky clean than anyone else.
My biggest gripe this week: All the Quebec coverage is about the Bloc. I've seen no coverage of alternatives in prominent ridings. The media doesn't need to take a pro-federalist stance (although a little bias in that direction would be reasonable - as reasonable as Global pushing Harper so hard). Just having balanced coverage of the fact that there are other people running in Quebec would be nice. WHAT ARE THE ALTERNATIVES? We never get to see.
A Bientot....
But, there is the first debate coming up in Vancouver shortly, and it's a bit tough to go into a debate without some planks in your platform, or you won't have much to stand on when it comes to pushing your points. Lets hope the first debate can be moderated with a bit of structure and not turn into an exercise in simultaneous talking.
The media coverage has been as entertaining as the party performance. Global news seems to be a broken record, as probably the most biased "news" coverage in the country (from a so-called Nation-wide station) they are playing a single track. Each newscast seems to say "The Liberals are slipping in the polls" and then they play tons of Harper announcements and get (vaguely supportive) reactions. CTV and CBC coverage seems to be more balanced, but CBC policy seems to be talking out both sides of their mouth. I applaud their idea in the last election to not focus on the Polls, as that approach can create the old self-fulfilling-prophesy-syndrome. And, of course, that is why some polling companies seem to push their preferred parties. Announce it and the public will say "Jeeze, the Liberals are slipping - no way I'm going to support those losers."
But, while they started their cowverage off saying they would again refrain from reporting on Polls once the campaign started, I seem to see a lot of poll coverage on their organs. The CBC One radio coverage even started with poll info on the News lead-in at least once in the last few days.
Kudo's to Mike Duffy on CTV for commenting on the Conservative lame-o advertising. I've been pointing out how the Harper ads look like crap. Some deer-in-the-headlights actor playing a woman journalist 'interviewing' Harper, and graphics, effects and copy that sound like it was a high school project.
Mike Duffy was commenting on the Conservative advertising in Quebec, trying to counter the Bloc, and mentioned that the ads in English Canada look like they were put together by a group of kids in advertising school. Glad to see that others are noting that.
Not sure what kind of a message it sends to voters to appear amateurish and klunky, when you want to project that you can run the country. That's probably the biggest benefit to the Liberals out their right now, in my humble opinion.
I think it is the intangible sense of a parties style that makes or breaks the shiftable vote. There is a big chunk of voters out there who will vote a certain way barring anything but a major meltdown. When it comes to the crucial Ontario vote (in terms of swinging the size of the coming minority), credibility based on subtle perception will be most important.
So in closing this brief commentary, here's my perspective of how things are looking currently.
Conservatives: Awkward, walking on eggshells, throwing out announcements willy-nilly, most of which are based on news-hooks and sound bites. Driving the media seems to be working in terms of getting lead-story time.
Liberals: Project the we're busy governing, and are the only competant party look. Largely keeping the powder dry until after Xmas, and setting up photo op's that paint a flattering picture
NDP: The usual differentiation strategy - we're not like those guys - with an astute chunk of milking the influence they were able to weild in the minority parliament.
Greens: Hey we're here and we don't get much respect. They seem to be saying we're more than just the environment, but they are not punching through with the big messages. They need some good beefy, solid maple in their platform. Two or three planks that aren't overtly environment, but that they can repeat to the point of nausea, where-upon the media will finally get it.
Bloc: Just keeps hyping the big bad liberals: "THEY" did this to "US" The federalist forces really need to find a sensitive way to say that the "THEY" in this case is a bunch of corrupt Quebecers. Put in the Bloc and you can just as easily have another big raft of corrupt Quebecers. Liberals should point out that they will be extra careful going forward, given their current black eyes, and will thus be more squeaky clean than anyone else.
My biggest gripe this week: All the Quebec coverage is about the Bloc. I've seen no coverage of alternatives in prominent ridings. The media doesn't need to take a pro-federalist stance (although a little bias in that direction would be reasonable - as reasonable as Global pushing Harper so hard). Just having balanced coverage of the fact that there are other people running in Quebec would be nice. WHAT ARE THE ALTERNATIVES? We never get to see.
A Bientot....
Monday
The Voting - Parliamentary Democracy Gears Turn
In some ways, irregardless of your political stripes, these are the most exciting days of a Parliamentary Democracy. The wheels turn to set about a potential change in government. Roles that are otherwise window-dressing actually have a function and we see that a few dozen millions can live in relative harmony and bring about a structured revisiting of their system of government.
So a vote is on, and the outcome is essentially a foregone conclusion. Non-confidence in the reigning party will be confirmed, following the motion served last week by The Conservatives and NDP (Moved by Harper, seconded by Layton). The outcome is that with the non-confidence vote lost by the governing party, the Governor-General (the Queen's representative in Canada) will confer with the Prime Minister and in that process will call for a new election. The writ, as we say, will be dropped.
She, (the GG) can actually do something else if she wanted - she could say, "You conservatives, NDP's and Bloc's go form a new government." But that's very unlikely, and so we'll end up going to the polls in early January.
Voting on the non-confidence motion gets underway just before 7:00pm tonight, and doesn't take long, as members simply stand to be counted and then we know.
Phoning it in For the First Month
It's generally conceeded that the parties will not be going full tilt until after the Christmas season. There will be some token campaigning, but they anticipate a lot of doors closed in their faces leading up to the holidays, and so will wait until afterwards to start really pounding the pavement.
The first spins of the session will have to be seen. We still see the Liberals saying "Canadians don't want an election" Canadians generally don't seem to care much when it happens. The opposition parties point out that they'd like a non-confidence motion now, and an election later (with some governing going ahead for a month or so).
They have a point, I suppose - the Liberals - that once confidence has failed, the concept of continuing to legislate further business is a bit of a stretch to the parliametary system.
Enjoying the Machinations
So meanwhile, enjoy the steps as they play out. I think it's the best part of the system, steeped in tradition, no gunshots invoved or people lined up against garden walls. The PM should have a speech for the press shortly about his chat with the GG, there should be statements that punch the primary slogans and points of the respective campaigns, and lawn signs will start sprouting around town.
I'd recommend a sign from each of the Liberals and the Greens for your lawn - the colours will be particularly festive. You can worry about the political statement after Christmas, and pull them down in favour of your chosen party. Or, if you're like me, no party at all.
So a vote is on, and the outcome is essentially a foregone conclusion. Non-confidence in the reigning party will be confirmed, following the motion served last week by The Conservatives and NDP (Moved by Harper, seconded by Layton). The outcome is that with the non-confidence vote lost by the governing party, the Governor-General (the Queen's representative in Canada) will confer with the Prime Minister and in that process will call for a new election. The writ, as we say, will be dropped.
She, (the GG) can actually do something else if she wanted - she could say, "You conservatives, NDP's and Bloc's go form a new government." But that's very unlikely, and so we'll end up going to the polls in early January.
Voting on the non-confidence motion gets underway just before 7:00pm tonight, and doesn't take long, as members simply stand to be counted and then we know.
Phoning it in For the First Month
It's generally conceeded that the parties will not be going full tilt until after the Christmas season. There will be some token campaigning, but they anticipate a lot of doors closed in their faces leading up to the holidays, and so will wait until afterwards to start really pounding the pavement.
The first spins of the session will have to be seen. We still see the Liberals saying "Canadians don't want an election" Canadians generally don't seem to care much when it happens. The opposition parties point out that they'd like a non-confidence motion now, and an election later (with some governing going ahead for a month or so).
They have a point, I suppose - the Liberals - that once confidence has failed, the concept of continuing to legislate further business is a bit of a stretch to the parliametary system.
Enjoying the Machinations
So meanwhile, enjoy the steps as they play out. I think it's the best part of the system, steeped in tradition, no gunshots invoved or people lined up against garden walls. The PM should have a speech for the press shortly about his chat with the GG, there should be statements that punch the primary slogans and points of the respective campaigns, and lawn signs will start sprouting around town.
I'd recommend a sign from each of the Liberals and the Greens for your lawn - the colours will be particularly festive. You can worry about the political statement after Christmas, and pull them down in favour of your chosen party. Or, if you're like me, no party at all.
Sunday
There's an Election Looming - The Lay of the Land
It's late Novemeber, 2005 and there are moves afoot that will precipitate an election before long. The lay of the land is this: The ruling liberals are on record as saying they will call an election, around the March '06 time frame, based on the timing of a certain judicial review report (more on that later).
They are in a minority government position, one where the opposition parties can topple them with a non-confidence vote, but only if the other parties work together.
There is no single other party with which the governing liberals can cooperate to carry the house, and thus a simple coalition is not possible. Plus, while loose allignment with one of the opposing parties was enough to barely (ie by one vote) hold on to power, that has been dissolved. The numbers were just balanced insuch a way, back when non-confidence votes were being weilded a few months back, that the two together (Liberals and NDP) could, with the tie breaking vote of the speaker of the house, carry the day.
But it's not that simple, the NDP (New Democratic Party - they are not actually "New" at all) has proposed that something other than the usual non-confidence, bring-down-the-governement-type vote be introduced. They want to pass a vote to have an election at a specific time - in early January.
But that hasn't been done before, and the Liberals claim that it's not kosher. Either there is confidence in the Government or there isn't (Spin 1), they say. And Canadians do not want a Christmas Holidays election (Spin 2)
But "Hey-" say the NDP and the other two opposition parties, the Bloc and Conservatives, why can't we agree to dissolve the governement later, after these pieces of legislation you the governement are trying to complete, and we the opposition would like to see completed. (Spin 3)
This, to your humble citizen seems pretty good - politicians actually doing something, and finishing some work. Why can't we do that indeed.
DE-SPIN:
Spin 1: Either there's confidence or there isn't. This is governing party spin to actually say "We need to be seen having the election on our terms, and we want to force the election to be either a) called by us at our timing, to project a we're-in-control look... or we want the election forced at Christmas time so we can paint you with our Spin 2 Brush and make you all look bad.
Spin 2: The idea that "Canadians Don't want a Christmas Election" is total bunk. Canadians could care less. It takes 20 minutes or so to vote - no big deal. In fact, it gives Canadians a chance to talk about something beefy and convouted during the holidays when families and friends get together. In reality, if we thought about it more openly and in the media (don't get me started), Canadians would LOVE a Christmas election. Everyone votes, Christmas cookies around the fire, singing polically-re-written Christmas Carols, we all watch the returns with a glass of nog. It would be great fun.
But the Media is spinning this for the politicians, when in reality, the politicians do not want to campaign in the cold, don't want to disrupt their lavish Holiday lifestyle with some actual work. So while the opposition wants to avoid Xmas with their "Hey, lets get some work done" approach (see below), the Liberals want to avoid it with a "Hey, we'll blame this on you and it will hurt you in the polls" thing.
Spin 3: This is actually mostly Spin 2 all over again. The opposition parties can be painted with the same brush as the governing politicians. Nobody wants to work - let alone work hard over Christmas. If it happens, and it probably will, they will all look back at it happily because it will be a big bonding thing with egg-nog and warm furry sweaters and frost-bitten ears, and they'll call it the best days of their lives.
However, I actually like the spin idea that they should postpone till January, and actually pass some flippin' legislation so the country can move forward a bit before the next election blasts a whole in all government productivity.
Oh, the 'judicial review' thing - that's better known as the Gomery Report, an investigation or royal commission or some sort of review of the events around a big financial scandal in Quebec, where a raft of Quebec politicians and beaurocrats lined their buddies' pockets through improperly doled out contracts. This thing is SpinCity, and I'll talk more about it later.
Next Blogs - Watch for a weekly update, or even more often if the spirit (and events) move me to the keyboard
They are in a minority government position, one where the opposition parties can topple them with a non-confidence vote, but only if the other parties work together.
There is no single other party with which the governing liberals can cooperate to carry the house, and thus a simple coalition is not possible. Plus, while loose allignment with one of the opposing parties was enough to barely (ie by one vote) hold on to power, that has been dissolved. The numbers were just balanced insuch a way, back when non-confidence votes were being weilded a few months back, that the two together (Liberals and NDP) could, with the tie breaking vote of the speaker of the house, carry the day.
But it's not that simple, the NDP (New Democratic Party - they are not actually "New" at all) has proposed that something other than the usual non-confidence, bring-down-the-governement-type vote be introduced. They want to pass a vote to have an election at a specific time - in early January.
But that hasn't been done before, and the Liberals claim that it's not kosher. Either there is confidence in the Government or there isn't (Spin 1), they say. And Canadians do not want a Christmas Holidays election (Spin 2)
But "Hey-" say the NDP and the other two opposition parties, the Bloc and Conservatives, why can't we agree to dissolve the governement later, after these pieces of legislation you the governement are trying to complete, and we the opposition would like to see completed. (Spin 3)
This, to your humble citizen seems pretty good - politicians actually doing something, and finishing some work. Why can't we do that indeed.
DE-SPIN:
Spin 1: Either there's confidence or there isn't. This is governing party spin to actually say "We need to be seen having the election on our terms, and we want to force the election to be either a) called by us at our timing, to project a we're-in-control look... or we want the election forced at Christmas time so we can paint you with our Spin 2 Brush and make you all look bad.
Spin 2: The idea that "Canadians Don't want a Christmas Election" is total bunk. Canadians could care less. It takes 20 minutes or so to vote - no big deal. In fact, it gives Canadians a chance to talk about something beefy and convouted during the holidays when families and friends get together. In reality, if we thought about it more openly and in the media (don't get me started), Canadians would LOVE a Christmas election. Everyone votes, Christmas cookies around the fire, singing polically-re-written Christmas Carols, we all watch the returns with a glass of nog. It would be great fun.
But the Media is spinning this for the politicians, when in reality, the politicians do not want to campaign in the cold, don't want to disrupt their lavish Holiday lifestyle with some actual work. So while the opposition wants to avoid Xmas with their "Hey, lets get some work done" approach (see below), the Liberals want to avoid it with a "Hey, we'll blame this on you and it will hurt you in the polls" thing.
Spin 3: This is actually mostly Spin 2 all over again. The opposition parties can be painted with the same brush as the governing politicians. Nobody wants to work - let alone work hard over Christmas. If it happens, and it probably will, they will all look back at it happily because it will be a big bonding thing with egg-nog and warm furry sweaters and frost-bitten ears, and they'll call it the best days of their lives.
However, I actually like the spin idea that they should postpone till January, and actually pass some flippin' legislation so the country can move forward a bit before the next election blasts a whole in all government productivity.
Oh, the 'judicial review' thing - that's better known as the Gomery Report, an investigation or royal commission or some sort of review of the events around a big financial scandal in Quebec, where a raft of Quebec politicians and beaurocrats lined their buddies' pockets through improperly doled out contracts. This thing is SpinCity, and I'll talk more about it later.
Next Blogs - Watch for a weekly update, or even more often if the spirit (and events) move me to the keyboard
Monday
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