Election Prediction

I have a lot more confidence in the UBC election stock market than I do any of the polsters for predicting the election results. It's looking like there will be another conservative minority with a slightly diminished seat count for them, but also a substantial diminishment of the Liberal seats. NDP position seems to have strengthened a lot, though no to the historic high which I think was around 45seats under Ed Broadbent.








I'd love to see the conservative numbers drop down to a lower number to create something more interesting for us. Perhaps some sort of coalition government, with some legs to run for a few years... at least long enough for the Liberals to re-group. We need some stronger people in leadership, and the only avenue that I can see producing someone any time soon is probably the Dion door.

That would mean the old Rae vs. Ignatief thing again. Not sure if either of them fit the bill. Perhaps Manley will dust off his old election signs and give it a whirl as well. The country might be hungry enough for someone that he could potentially take a pretty good crack at it. I suspect, however, that his strategy will be to wait for the Rae/Ignatief battle to run a little further through before popping his head above the parapet.