The cross-country train thing that Elizabeth May is doing is nice to see. I think it says some fundamental things about the origin of this country and what binds it together, and how things change. But it also has a good message about green transportation.
I wonder how much sway they have over the schedule of the Transcontinental - apparently it's a regularly scheduled one. My experiences on that beast have been that they are invariably delayed by many hours - sometimes tens of hours as they go across the country, but perhaps things have changed in the latter decade or so.
Meanwhile, elsewhere, I continue to hear reporters talk about the Liberal inability to fill the schedule with event, press or public. They seem to have some severe organization issues. I'd speculate that those who would normally organize such things are waiting to precipitate Dion's failure so they can bring their guy in (read: Ignatief or Rae)
I'm amazed at the things the Conservatives do and the inability of voters to see thru' the charade. I mean a minister joking and making light of one of the western world's worst bacteria contaminations of the food supply, and I see little sign of it impacting their support.
Frighteningly, I heard a reporter speculating that with stronger parties on the left, the threshold of popular vote required for a majority may be as low as 35%. That's pretty scary. The more I think about it, the more I think that our only hope is some coalition forming that can depose a Conservative minority. If a majority happens, we're all really, really screwed.
The same push towards deregulation (or at least hollowing out of food safety inspection infrastructure) that allows the Listeria epidemic also allows the sub-prime mortgage fiasco. If our conservatives start pushing that even further, who knows what sort of mess we'll find ourselves in.
Maybe I'll look into this vote-swapping thing. I don't think it's going to have much impact, but the tiniest oportunity to ensure that we aren't beholden to ideologs is attractive.
Monday
Governance by the Numbers?
Second week kicks off with out much really gripping the electorate. There was that whole country-wide uprising of voters of all stripes against the party leadership that would exclude a leader from the debate who has a sitting member, and candidates running coast-to-coast in all ridings. That is a real great thing for Canada, that we value our democracy to that extent and can be non-partisan in such movements.
But I fear I am hearing a real erosion of the Liberal party. My prediction seems to hold still that this election will help us in terms of clearing out some people that shouldn't be there. I think Dion will be gone after this. I just fear that the result will be a Conservative Majority. I am hearing some clearer positioning of the Green Shift concept lately, but still think it is a mistake for the election campaign. It would have been better as a policy to bring forward as a governing party.
My biggest hope is that new found strength in the NDP and Greens will result in enough seats to form a coalition of some kind. I mean, if the conservatives get a minority, but the NDP + Liberals represent more seats, it is conceivable that they immediately vote down the Conservatives and go to the GG to request that they form a coalition government. Of course the numbers will be a challenge, as the remaining parties Greens + Bloc perhaps could depose them with the conservatives. But some bedfellows are not probable. And after the animosity being displayed in Quebec between Bloc and CRAP, it could well be that they will not vote together in such a situation.
Still waiting for some substance to emerge, and still grumbling about the idea that some moron would place the Canadian leadership debate on at the same time as the US leaders debate. Duh.
But I fear I am hearing a real erosion of the Liberal party. My prediction seems to hold still that this election will help us in terms of clearing out some people that shouldn't be there. I think Dion will be gone after this. I just fear that the result will be a Conservative Majority. I am hearing some clearer positioning of the Green Shift concept lately, but still think it is a mistake for the election campaign. It would have been better as a policy to bring forward as a governing party.
My biggest hope is that new found strength in the NDP and Greens will result in enough seats to form a coalition of some kind. I mean, if the conservatives get a minority, but the NDP + Liberals represent more seats, it is conceivable that they immediately vote down the Conservatives and go to the GG to request that they form a coalition government. Of course the numbers will be a challenge, as the remaining parties Greens + Bloc perhaps could depose them with the conservatives. But some bedfellows are not probable. And after the animosity being displayed in Quebec between Bloc and CRAP, it could well be that they will not vote together in such a situation.
Still waiting for some substance to emerge, and still grumbling about the idea that some moron would place the Canadian leadership debate on at the same time as the US leaders debate. Duh.
Tuesday
Poor Respect for our Political System
There is some broad consensus that the exclusion of Greens, and their theologian leader, from the upcoming debate. I'm reminded of the CBC 'At Issue' panel - a set of political pundits, who were asked a week ago, as a wrap up question: "Should the Greens be part of the Debate." All three unequivocally said yes without hesitation.
Contrast that against the denigrating Prime Minister slagging the Greens with some inane argument that the greens as liberals anyway. This is some half-assed reference to a riding where they've coordinated to not split the vote, to ensure a conservative defeat. Of course, the conservatives are similarly not fielding a candidate in another riding where a conservative leaning independent is strong (with the hopes that he's shift to them, of course).
I am disappointed that our politicians don't fundamentally understand how important it is to preserve the fair and open principles of electoral debate.
I'm saddened by our current government and hope we can find some path to change. Crap, I'm too depressed to type anymore for now. I'm going to bed.
Contrast that against the denigrating Prime Minister slagging the Greens with some inane argument that the greens as liberals anyway. This is some half-assed reference to a riding where they've coordinated to not split the vote, to ensure a conservative defeat. Of course, the conservatives are similarly not fielding a candidate in another riding where a conservative leaning independent is strong (with the hopes that he's shift to them, of course).
I am disappointed that our politicians don't fundamentally understand how important it is to preserve the fair and open principles of electoral debate.
I'm saddened by our current government and hope we can find some path to change. Crap, I'm too depressed to type anymore for now. I'm going to bed.
Monday
Anti Democratic Principles
I heard that the Greens will be excluded from the debate because PM Harper has refused to take part if they participate. They are fielding candidates in all ridings across the country, are getting a non-trivial portion of the vote, and - unlike say the libertarians, or the communist party or the marijuana party - most people know someone who has voted Green, or perhaps will vote green themselves.
Given that threat, the other parties have said if Harper doesn't participate, they won't thus, the media is saying lets exclude the Greens.
Will this stick to the Conservatives? No, not likely. The media won't give it legs. Such fundamental rejection of free speech, and the importance of the debate process is so sad. But it's in line with a party who locks the media out of the workings of government, instructs the caucus to not talk to media, and is even coaching certain foot-in-mouth prone candidates to not talk to anyone.
Crazy process.
Given that threat, the other parties have said if Harper doesn't participate, they won't thus, the media is saying lets exclude the Greens.
Will this stick to the Conservatives? No, not likely. The media won't give it legs. Such fundamental rejection of free speech, and the importance of the debate process is so sad. But it's in line with a party who locks the media out of the workings of government, instructs the caucus to not talk to media, and is even coaching certain foot-in-mouth prone candidates to not talk to anyone.
Crazy process.
Sunday
Barack Layton?
My reading of the election timing is starting to show up in the media. I saw CTV commentary that mentioned (mostly jokingly) Obama and Layton comparisons. That was my prediction a week or two back. The thesis? A media feeding frenzy on the Obama/McLean project south of the border is bound to inspire Canadian voters - some of whom will say "I wish we had someone new talking about big questions, and inspiring us. A strong orator like Obama."
I don't think we have anyone like that in the slate - though some folks have told me that seeing Dion in person is much more inspiring and impressive that his on-TV persona.
When I spin through our existing leaders though (and this has been supported by a recent poll which came out after my comments earlier), I think Layton is the guy who would benefit most from those thoughts. On that poll, I heard surveys of opinions about leadership show people to rate Layton highly.
Smooth, though, Layton isn't. Noticing some media footage recently, he's got a strange posture that might turn some people off, looks like some combination of a guy in a girdle and a flamboyant thespian - too much arm swinging or something. Can't put my finger on it, but these things do a lot to influence people's opinions (unfortunately). Hmmm, I wonder if it's a good time for him to consider loosing the mustache? Nah, probably too much screwing with the brand at this point would hurt him.
Still watching...
I don't think we have anyone like that in the slate - though some folks have told me that seeing Dion in person is much more inspiring and impressive that his on-TV persona.
When I spin through our existing leaders though (and this has been supported by a recent poll which came out after my comments earlier), I think Layton is the guy who would benefit most from those thoughts. On that poll, I heard surveys of opinions about leadership show people to rate Layton highly.
Smooth, though, Layton isn't. Noticing some media footage recently, he's got a strange posture that might turn some people off, looks like some combination of a guy in a girdle and a flamboyant thespian - too much arm swinging or something. Can't put my finger on it, but these things do a lot to influence people's opinions (unfortunately). Hmmm, I wonder if it's a good time for him to consider loosing the mustache? Nah, probably too much screwing with the brand at this point would hurt him.
Still watching...
The Long Road Ends At Another Road
Well that took a while, but finally we're there. Writ dropped, election officially in place this morning, and driving around this afternoon I see men with poor motor-skills trying to tap stakes into the ground to support their election signs.
Tip: Obese senior citizen with a big sledge hammer - wielding that thing takes a bunch of arm strength you haven't been working on since your late 60's. Let the young guy do that part before you bust the guys arm.
Listening to a cross country call in show, I'm hearing positive things and scary things. Some pragmatic perspective from BC where an existing carbon tax gives them some perspective. Some blinders-wearing Albertans who are content living in a one-party system, at federal and provincial level staying on script.
I heard some brilliant comments from an immigrant man, and a middle aged lady. From the former, echoing my thoughts, the fear of a Harper majority, given a blatant disregard for democratic society (e.g. free media who are included in the workings of government) and the hidden ideologue's agenda.
The lady on the green shift idea made an excellent point that took me a bit of time to parse - but she said (to paraphrase) "being against the green shift isn't going to make gas and fuel costs come down, and if you think we need to make some changes because of the evolution in our fuel driven economy, perhaps this is the way to go."
I think the green shift plan, as it's proposed was a terribly poor strategic move going into an election, but is probably an astute direction. I think we'll hear many commentators quoting Kim Campbell in the coming weeks: "An election is no time to discuss important issues" (to again attempt a quote from memory).
So out on the trail go our politicians, and the outcome is uncertain. I must say though that I truly am worried about where we might end up. Particularly that an Environics poll suggesting a possible Conservative majority might be accurate and sustained. I think we'd see the loss of treasured Canadian institutions such as our healthcare system and the CBC, and quite possibly loss of identity pulling us closer to Americans through the scuttling of our currency, our resources and our independance in foriegn policy.
I remember waking up after a Mulroney victory and how dismal things looked - and much of that was well founded. This current Conservative group scares the crap out of me, and I can only hope that some other party - any party can keep them at least to a minority, or if not, someone else can get into a minority position through some dynamic changes during the course of the campaign.
Watch this space for more avg guy on the Capital streets perspective.
Tip: Obese senior citizen with a big sledge hammer - wielding that thing takes a bunch of arm strength you haven't been working on since your late 60's. Let the young guy do that part before you bust the guys arm.
Listening to a cross country call in show, I'm hearing positive things and scary things. Some pragmatic perspective from BC where an existing carbon tax gives them some perspective. Some blinders-wearing Albertans who are content living in a one-party system, at federal and provincial level staying on script.
I heard some brilliant comments from an immigrant man, and a middle aged lady. From the former, echoing my thoughts, the fear of a Harper majority, given a blatant disregard for democratic society (e.g. free media who are included in the workings of government) and the hidden ideologue's agenda.
The lady on the green shift idea made an excellent point that took me a bit of time to parse - but she said (to paraphrase) "being against the green shift isn't going to make gas and fuel costs come down, and if you think we need to make some changes because of the evolution in our fuel driven economy, perhaps this is the way to go."
I think the green shift plan, as it's proposed was a terribly poor strategic move going into an election, but is probably an astute direction. I think we'll hear many commentators quoting Kim Campbell in the coming weeks: "An election is no time to discuss important issues" (to again attempt a quote from memory).
So out on the trail go our politicians, and the outcome is uncertain. I must say though that I truly am worried about where we might end up. Particularly that an Environics poll suggesting a possible Conservative majority might be accurate and sustained. I think we'd see the loss of treasured Canadian institutions such as our healthcare system and the CBC, and quite possibly loss of identity pulling us closer to Americans through the scuttling of our currency, our resources and our independance in foriegn policy.
I remember waking up after a Mulroney victory and how dismal things looked - and much of that was well founded. This current Conservative group scares the crap out of me, and I can only hope that some other party - any party can keep them at least to a minority, or if not, someone else can get into a minority position through some dynamic changes during the course of the campaign.
Watch this space for more avg guy on the Capital streets perspective.
Thursday
Writ Pending?
It's oh so close... Or is it? The insiders say that the it's a certainty, but one never knows. I'll wait and see if there is any writ droppage today or tomorrow. But word on the street is it happens before the weekend.
On a call-in show yesterday I was surprised to see how many callers said they didn't want to see this election now, and then proceeded to talk about how crappy the current government is and how they aren't doing anything, and should do something first.
I can't help but see that as a contradiction - if they're so crappy and unable to do anything, then perhaps this is your chance to impose some change on them.
The show had a very astute guest though, well, I say that because he was echoing things I've been saying around the dinner table and coffee shops for a while, but had yet to hear in the media. Unfortunately I didn't get his name, and the CBC website for 'OntarioToday' has no history info.
One - on the concept of a fixed election date. First it's an indictable offense to have proclaimed that a fixed date was required because otherwise parties would select election days opportunistically, then to have done exactly that.
Two - the whole concept of a fixed election date makes little sense in a parliamentary system. (my theory is that it's more of their subconscious white-house wannabe syndrome)
Three - the deck-clearing effect of this election could be dramatic, with new leaders possible in many camps. This is a key value for me, and why I'm anxious to see this one happen.
Anyway, rather than 99% sure, as most media and pundits seem to be, I think I'm hovering around 65%. Just given the opportunism, Harper et al may well be pulling our chains with all the meeting shenanigans and hint mongering. I certainly hope not.
On a call-in show yesterday I was surprised to see how many callers said they didn't want to see this election now, and then proceeded to talk about how crappy the current government is and how they aren't doing anything, and should do something first.
I can't help but see that as a contradiction - if they're so crappy and unable to do anything, then perhaps this is your chance to impose some change on them.
The show had a very astute guest though, well, I say that because he was echoing things I've been saying around the dinner table and coffee shops for a while, but had yet to hear in the media. Unfortunately I didn't get his name, and the CBC website for 'OntarioToday' has no history info.
One - on the concept of a fixed election date. First it's an indictable offense to have proclaimed that a fixed date was required because otherwise parties would select election days opportunistically, then to have done exactly that.
Two - the whole concept of a fixed election date makes little sense in a parliamentary system. (my theory is that it's more of their subconscious white-house wannabe syndrome)
Three - the deck-clearing effect of this election could be dramatic, with new leaders possible in many camps. This is a key value for me, and why I'm anxious to see this one happen.
Anyway, rather than 99% sure, as most media and pundits seem to be, I think I'm hovering around 65%. Just given the opportunism, Harper et al may well be pulling our chains with all the meeting shenanigans and hint mongering. I certainly hope not.
Tuesday
Trailer Park Soaps versus Writ Droppage
The pending election is palpable, I suspect the dropping of the writ will occur today, unless our current GG is off traipsing around some distant country on our dime. Just in time, and I hear on morning radio the discussion of our election versus their election.
Of course the debate was prepared ahead of time, before all the trailer trash stories in the saga of veep candidate Palin started showing up, and there's almost another one every news cast. So the discussion is charisma versus no charisma.
I think the downside is that the charisma channel tends to bring with it a package of bad decisions and trashy stories. In comparison, I'm glad to say that our elections are a little tamer. Certainly less vetting of candidate family members, but also fewer knee jerk 'card' playing to counter the opposing party's positions.
The most we get (thankfully) is a carefully orchestrated shot of Liberal Dion arriving for a meeting in a Prius, and stories of his dog being named Kyoto. That's enough of that sort of stuff for me.... though as I said earlier, finding a leader with the ability to articulate a vision and address issues head-on would be nice.
Of course the debate was prepared ahead of time, before all the trailer trash stories in the saga of veep candidate Palin started showing up, and there's almost another one every news cast. So the discussion is charisma versus no charisma.
I think the downside is that the charisma channel tends to bring with it a package of bad decisions and trashy stories. In comparison, I'm glad to say that our elections are a little tamer. Certainly less vetting of candidate family members, but also fewer knee jerk 'card' playing to counter the opposing party's positions.
The most we get (thankfully) is a carefully orchestrated shot of Liberal Dion arriving for a meeting in a Prius, and stories of his dog being named Kyoto. That's enough of that sort of stuff for me.... though as I said earlier, finding a leader with the ability to articulate a vision and address issues head-on would be nice.
Monday
Meetings, Meetings
PM Harper schedules meetings with all the opposition leaders and speculation is reaching a peak that the call will happen imminently. Why the meetings - I assume it's so he can say 'I tried to work with them, but they just refuse to stop ruining parliament.'
Of course, voters won't soon forget the publishing of the conservative handbook on how to effectively disrupt meetings, committees and debate.
The Obama tidal wave on the American news channels is scaring the crap out of the charisma-vacuum that is the Conservative party. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of charisma driven politics. However the I find their realization humourous that their combined lack of charisma and lack of ability to communicate a vision leaves them exposed during an American media juggernaut. They end up looking boring and directionless, which can only help their opponents.
This promises to change on an almost hourly basis at this point, as we finally get into an election campaign, albeit for manipulative reasons, based on pretense.
Of course, voters won't soon forget the publishing of the conservative handbook on how to effectively disrupt meetings, committees and debate.
The Obama tidal wave on the American news channels is scaring the crap out of the charisma-vacuum that is the Conservative party. Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of charisma driven politics. However the I find their realization humourous that their combined lack of charisma and lack of ability to communicate a vision leaves them exposed during an American media juggernaut. They end up looking boring and directionless, which can only help their opponents.
This promises to change on an almost hourly basis at this point, as we finally get into an election campaign, albeit for manipulative reasons, based on pretense.
Thursday
Health Minister is WHERE?
In this run up to a new election coinciding with the Listeria debacle, I've heard a few news reports mention that Health Minister Tony Clement is not available because he's in Denver at the Democratic convention.
Huh? Does this not catch ANYONE else's attention? Why is the reporter involved not tripping over themselves to find out why he's there and tell us about it? He's a right wing, conservative insider - and the media has pointed out that the Bushies have been providing that party with backroom guildance. And he's at a conference for the new leader of the DEMs? What gives?
Where's the media when you really want answers to a question!
Huh? Does this not catch ANYONE else's attention? Why is the reporter involved not tripping over themselves to find out why he's there and tell us about it? He's a right wing, conservative insider - and the media has pointed out that the Bushies have been providing that party with backroom guildance. And he's at a conference for the new leader of the DEMs? What gives?
Where's the media when you really want answers to a question!
Tuesday
Timing is Everything
Interesting point I hadn't thought about before from an interview I saw last night on CBC news. One of the big motivators for the PM calling an election early is the big US election with its mass appeal.
If that election is fought late this year with all its associated press feeding frenzy and the perceived building love-in with Barack Obama, what is the impact for a crazy right wing government in Canada?
I think it makes a ton of sense. Surely it will be inspiring for voters above the border to jump on the bandwagon of a youthful idealistic visionary, versus a dour, negative, control freak. Not sure who benefits here. Greens? NDP? Liberals? Dion doesn't have any charisma, so perhaps the other two both get a bump. That would be interesting, but still leave us with a minority gov't though.
The Greens are led by a bible-thumping former minister apparently (they keep that part very quiet), so it almost seems like Jack Layton might actually get the better part of that. Liberals under Ignatief or Ray could do pretty well in that environment, but they can't get there until they get rid of that albatross around their neck.
The crazy 'election day' thing Harper put in place is looking lamer and lamer. Do they know anything about the parliamentary system? It makes no sense at all in a system where minorities are possible. Just another attempt to be as American as possible. Too much bad TV watching by that conservative group as kids I guess. Their mothers should have made them watch more "Beachcombers" and "King of Kensington."
If that election is fought late this year with all its associated press feeding frenzy and the perceived building love-in with Barack Obama, what is the impact for a crazy right wing government in Canada?
I think it makes a ton of sense. Surely it will be inspiring for voters above the border to jump on the bandwagon of a youthful idealistic visionary, versus a dour, negative, control freak. Not sure who benefits here. Greens? NDP? Liberals? Dion doesn't have any charisma, so perhaps the other two both get a bump. That would be interesting, but still leave us with a minority gov't though.
The Greens are led by a bible-thumping former minister apparently (they keep that part very quiet), so it almost seems like Jack Layton might actually get the better part of that. Liberals under Ignatief or Ray could do pretty well in that environment, but they can't get there until they get rid of that albatross around their neck.
The crazy 'election day' thing Harper put in place is looking lamer and lamer. Do they know anything about the parliamentary system? It makes no sense at all in a system where minorities are possible. Just another attempt to be as American as possible. Too much bad TV watching by that conservative group as kids I guess. Their mothers should have made them watch more "Beachcombers" and "King of Kensington."
Monday
New Rumblings
PM Harper is on a tour it seems, trying to lay the groundwork for a fall election. Granted, I expected one last fall, but this bizarre stalemate seems set in concrete, and there is a lack of leadership with an addiction to some perceived glory of the current roles. Harper is basking in one of the most stable minority governments in Canadian history, and Dion is sitting under the sunlamp of weak leadership, convincing himself that it's the tropical sun he's basking in on the ramparts of his palace.
In reality, the Harper government stability is built on a foundation of secrecy, bumbling politicians whose only success comes from being muzzled to ensure that they can't commit immediate and irrevocable political suicide by opening their mouths. They have actually, really written a manual, distributed to their people on how to stonewall committees to ensure that they don't progress towards logical, meaningful conclusions - because those are typically against the Conservative direction of the right-wing, US wannabe vision.
Meanwhile, the NDP and the Greens are further splitting the centre and left ensuring that a party with approval of a quarter of the population can continue to sit there doing nothing.
Dion is the biggest failure of this situation, in that rather than going to the polls on a platform built around something he stood for, he's happily capitulated on anything and everything that was posed to him, all to maintain his weak, cardboard leadership.
With Harper's tour spouting that he may have to call an election because of the House's dysfunction, Dion could lose the only freebie he could have mustered, the strength of conviction on some random topic. Now he'll have to go into an election with both weak leadership, a history of capitulation, and no central focussing principle. What's most laughable is that Harpers mantra about dysfunction in the house is in no small part attributable to his party. They literally wrote the book on obfuscation and dysfunction, well the manual anyway.
So my bottomline is still that an election is desperately needed to clean up stalemate that we see now. Problem is, I'm not convinced any of those there now have the guts to go forward with it.
I like to think of the best outcome imaginable. At this point, all I can think of is that the stalemate could result in a gentle flip of leading parties in a minority with the same weak support numbers that have persisted for years now. The result being a Dion government coalition with Jack Layton. That's also in some ways a worst case, 'cause it entrenches Dion making it hard to bring in a stronger leader, while giving the Conservatives the opportunity to find someone more charismatic. The good thing is that I'm skeptical they could find a 'Reform aka CRAP aka Conservative' figure who has charisma and a closet that is not bulging with inopportune, bigoted comments, reactionary policy and skeletons to boot.
So, yeah, I'm hopeful something will happen in the coming months - more than the few by-elections currently scheduled. But I'm still skeptical we'll get a better political landscape out of it. Hopefully some vision and charisma from south of the border will inspire voters here to seek out someone with depth and leadership vision. I think we usually end up with better (well, less dirty anyway) politicians than the Americans get with their system of only old-money, rich white guys. But some vision would be a nice change.
In reality, the Harper government stability is built on a foundation of secrecy, bumbling politicians whose only success comes from being muzzled to ensure that they can't commit immediate and irrevocable political suicide by opening their mouths. They have actually, really written a manual, distributed to their people on how to stonewall committees to ensure that they don't progress towards logical, meaningful conclusions - because those are typically against the Conservative direction of the right-wing, US wannabe vision.
Meanwhile, the NDP and the Greens are further splitting the centre and left ensuring that a party with approval of a quarter of the population can continue to sit there doing nothing.
Dion is the biggest failure of this situation, in that rather than going to the polls on a platform built around something he stood for, he's happily capitulated on anything and everything that was posed to him, all to maintain his weak, cardboard leadership.
With Harper's tour spouting that he may have to call an election because of the House's dysfunction, Dion could lose the only freebie he could have mustered, the strength of conviction on some random topic. Now he'll have to go into an election with both weak leadership, a history of capitulation, and no central focussing principle. What's most laughable is that Harpers mantra about dysfunction in the house is in no small part attributable to his party. They literally wrote the book on obfuscation and dysfunction, well the manual anyway.
So my bottomline is still that an election is desperately needed to clean up stalemate that we see now. Problem is, I'm not convinced any of those there now have the guts to go forward with it.
I like to think of the best outcome imaginable. At this point, all I can think of is that the stalemate could result in a gentle flip of leading parties in a minority with the same weak support numbers that have persisted for years now. The result being a Dion government coalition with Jack Layton. That's also in some ways a worst case, 'cause it entrenches Dion making it hard to bring in a stronger leader, while giving the Conservatives the opportunity to find someone more charismatic. The good thing is that I'm skeptical they could find a 'Reform aka CRAP aka Conservative' figure who has charisma and a closet that is not bulging with inopportune, bigoted comments, reactionary policy and skeletons to boot.
So, yeah, I'm hopeful something will happen in the coming months - more than the few by-elections currently scheduled. But I'm still skeptical we'll get a better political landscape out of it. Hopefully some vision and charisma from south of the border will inspire voters here to seek out someone with depth and leadership vision. I think we usually end up with better (well, less dirty anyway) politicians than the Americans get with their system of only old-money, rich white guys. But some vision would be a nice change.
Tuesday
Summer Recess
Well, the session is over, and I've long since given up hope that the Liberals would bring down the government. M. Dion appears to be so back-boneless that he would support a bill to sell off a few provinces rather than take down the government in a non-confidence vote.
So the summer comes along, and we won't see an election until the fall I guess. Crazy stuff.
So the summer comes along, and we won't see an election until the fall I guess. Crazy stuff.
Friday
Bubbling Dissent
The Liberal party is starting to vibrate a bit with a combination of dissatisfaction with the leader Dion's performance, lack of perceived election readiness in Quebec, and inability to attack the government on big, seemingly glaring exposures.
On the latter point, the finance minister's obsession with sniping at those who deposed him from his previous job in Ontario. Or, perhaps, his attempts to sequester money for a commuter train from his own riding in back-woods Ontario into Toronto. Luckily the train thing has been downgraded to a feasability study (wanna bet that one of his cronies gets the contract?).
But meanwhile, the optics of a federal finance minister slagging a provincial government, particularly when he used to hold a job there and was deposed. That's pretty cheezy small town stuff.
Dion's inability to project a sense of leadership is an issue that can only be cleared by an election I think. I wonder though if some of these rumblings of lack of election readiness are a ploy to force the Conservative's hand, and precipitate the election themselves. A bit far-fetched I suppose, but political chess is often about manipulation.
This is not resolved yet, and I suspect the news cycle will hype it a bit more before it drops.
On the latter point, the finance minister's obsession with sniping at those who deposed him from his previous job in Ontario. Or, perhaps, his attempts to sequester money for a commuter train from his own riding in back-woods Ontario into Toronto. Luckily the train thing has been downgraded to a feasability study (wanna bet that one of his cronies gets the contract?).
But meanwhile, the optics of a federal finance minister slagging a provincial government, particularly when he used to hold a job there and was deposed. That's pretty cheezy small town stuff.
Dion's inability to project a sense of leadership is an issue that can only be cleared by an election I think. I wonder though if some of these rumblings of lack of election readiness are a ploy to force the Conservative's hand, and precipitate the election themselves. A bit far-fetched I suppose, but political chess is often about manipulation.
This is not resolved yet, and I suspect the news cycle will hype it a bit more before it drops.
Monday
Two Passes But ByElections are Key
So both the 'confidence-like' votes passed. A key bit in this whole thing, driving the Liberals propensity for approving everything, regardless how they feel about it, are the by-elections that ran today.
Getting Bob into the parliament is a key part of their push forward. They want all the press that buys them, and also to get him some camera time to build his stock so that when they dump Stephane Dion, they will have some viable options.
So, I'm not sure if they will drop the government on the very next opportunity, or string them along a bit longer to give Bob some soak time. What do you think?
I suspect they also want to give the local riding associations time to rebuild their cash a bit after the by-Election. Sure, they can save some cash by re-using their lawn signs.
Getting Bob into the parliament is a key part of their push forward. They want all the press that buys them, and also to get him some camera time to build his stock so that when they dump Stephane Dion, they will have some viable options.
So, I'm not sure if they will drop the government on the very next opportunity, or string them along a bit longer to give Bob some soak time. What do you think?
I suspect they also want to give the local riding associations time to rebuild their cash a bit after the by-Election. Sure, they can save some cash by re-using their lawn signs.
Thursday
Vote Today on Afghanistan
It would have been a drop the government like a hot brick day, but everyone is supporting the government's position on Afghanistan. Not that I don't - it seems reasonable enough to me. But it's another turning point passed.
Wednesday
RESP Regressive Tax Relief
This is an interesting step towards another chance at an election. A Liberal MP put forward legislation that made it through the house of Commons and is off to the Senate for approval. This bill makes RESP contributions tax sheltered, much like an RRSP. ( Read "like an IRA" for any American's who might be reading here - not that I can imagine such a scenario).
It's apparently got a $900M pricetag against government revenue, and the Conservatives don't like it. Parents of course eat it up. The MP who championed the bill is shown papering his office with emails of support. Go figure, people like getting tax breaks. Offer a free case of beer with your tax return and see how many emails of support you get.
My problem with it (yikes, I'm siding with the Conservatives) is that such a program benefits education for rich people. The people that would have trouble affording post-secondary education don't have the cash (and sometimes not the knowhow) to wrangle up an RESP. If we want to blow $900M a year on education related benefits, how about lowering tuitions, or funding low-income students through their schooling.
Anyway, the Conservatives are putting together a bill to rescind the legislation if it goes through. If passed, the RESP bill dies, if defeated the government falls. Well, interesting of course, as the Liberals immediately say,that they will not defeat the latter bill.
And so it goes again.
We need an election to clear the clogged pipes. The liberals can't change leadership without an election to precipitate it. The Conservatives can't be deposed without it. The NDP and Greens can resolve their relative roles in the landscape without it either. The outcome would be either the same thing, or perhaps a reduced Conservative minority, or a Liberal Minority. Either way, it would have some value to clear the air.
When will the opposition get a backbone and vote down stuff that they don't support?
It's apparently got a $900M pricetag against government revenue, and the Conservatives don't like it. Parents of course eat it up. The MP who championed the bill is shown papering his office with emails of support. Go figure, people like getting tax breaks. Offer a free case of beer with your tax return and see how many emails of support you get.
My problem with it (yikes, I'm siding with the Conservatives) is that such a program benefits education for rich people. The people that would have trouble affording post-secondary education don't have the cash (and sometimes not the knowhow) to wrangle up an RESP. If we want to blow $900M a year on education related benefits, how about lowering tuitions, or funding low-income students through their schooling.
Anyway, the Conservatives are putting together a bill to rescind the legislation if it goes through. If passed, the RESP bill dies, if defeated the government falls. Well, interesting of course, as the Liberals immediately say,that they will not defeat the latter bill.
And so it goes again.
We need an election to clear the clogged pipes. The liberals can't change leadership without an election to precipitate it. The Conservatives can't be deposed without it. The NDP and Greens can resolve their relative roles in the landscape without it either. The outcome would be either the same thing, or perhaps a reduced Conservative minority, or a Liberal Minority. Either way, it would have some value to clear the air.
When will the opposition get a backbone and vote down stuff that they don't support?
Thursday
Sleaze Oozes out of Government Cracks
While the current government gets closer to one of the longest running minority governments, a few things begin to pile up behind the gate to an election.
The Obama campaign was the last thing I thought would come up in our political situation, but a bonehead move by someone in the PMO meant that a discussion was leaked to the press.
Initially, it was shared (allegedly by Harper's Chief of Staff) that Obama called up the Canadian Embassy to say - "hey, forget all that stuff I'm saying about NAFTA - it's just for getting votes" - okay I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of it.
Later it comes up that, well, that's not really what the exchange was. But it's immaterial now, as the impact has already been felt in Ohio primaries.
In previous government leaks, they found the culprit and removed the temp employee I think it was, in the handcuffs of the RCMP. In this case it sounds like there's a Privy Council investigation, and they'll likely come back with "oh well, we reprimanded the unnamed pesky fellow". Sounds like a double standard.
Though, I am somehow not surprised, as there was word of Republicans or at least links to republican-connected right wing religio-fascists in the US providing advisors to Harpers campaign during the previous election. It seems possible in a slightly crazy conspiracy-sort-of-way that they would also be looking for some help in besmirching Mr. Charisma given the way the upcoming US election is looking.
Anyway, all this to say, it gives the Opposition some scandal-like ammunition to consider toppling the government. Add onto that the current push towards the censorship bill C-10 that seeks to not only scuttle funding for some Canadian movies that don't meet some cabal's ideas of suitable content, but they also want to be able to do it after the fact. This ensures that not only do they kill the movie project, but they also financially deep-six the production company who suddenly finds that it's product has bankrupted them as the pending funds are suddenly withdrawn after the cash is spent. Some nut job evangelist named McVety out west was claiming ownership of the bill until someone told him to shut up, and now he's pulled back into the festering underbelly of religion-motivated censorship advocates.
Hopefully the arts community continues pushing on this, and the Liberals in the Senate can kill the thing. Meanwhile, add it to the list of reasons for an election.
The Obama campaign was the last thing I thought would come up in our political situation, but a bonehead move by someone in the PMO meant that a discussion was leaked to the press.
Initially, it was shared (allegedly by Harper's Chief of Staff) that Obama called up the Canadian Embassy to say - "hey, forget all that stuff I'm saying about NAFTA - it's just for getting votes" - okay I'm paraphrasing, but that was the gist of it.
Later it comes up that, well, that's not really what the exchange was. But it's immaterial now, as the impact has already been felt in Ohio primaries.
In previous government leaks, they found the culprit and removed the temp employee I think it was, in the handcuffs of the RCMP. In this case it sounds like there's a Privy Council investigation, and they'll likely come back with "oh well, we reprimanded the unnamed pesky fellow". Sounds like a double standard.
Though, I am somehow not surprised, as there was word of Republicans or at least links to republican-connected right wing religio-fascists in the US providing advisors to Harpers campaign during the previous election. It seems possible in a slightly crazy conspiracy-sort-of-way that they would also be looking for some help in besmirching Mr. Charisma given the way the upcoming US election is looking.
Anyway, all this to say, it gives the Opposition some scandal-like ammunition to consider toppling the government. Add onto that the current push towards the censorship bill C-10 that seeks to not only scuttle funding for some Canadian movies that don't meet some cabal's ideas of suitable content, but they also want to be able to do it after the fact. This ensures that not only do they kill the movie project, but they also financially deep-six the production company who suddenly finds that it's product has bankrupted them as the pending funds are suddenly withdrawn after the cash is spent. Some nut job evangelist named McVety out west was claiming ownership of the bill until someone told him to shut up, and now he's pulled back into the festering underbelly of religion-motivated censorship advocates.
Hopefully the arts community continues pushing on this, and the Liberals in the Senate can kill the thing. Meanwhile, add it to the list of reasons for an election.
Tuesday
Afghanistan Entrée to Spring Election Fading
This one came and left pretty quickly. Over the past few days it looked like an election was imminent over a Conservative bill to extend the Afghan mission. The motivation seemed to me to be coalescing around a desire to exploit perceived differences among Liberal leadership about how the mission should go.
But as of this morning it sounds like the liberals have agreed to a position regarding post 2011 definitions of the engagement. I'm guessing the liberals and conservatives will be able to find some agreement to avoid defeat of the bill, and they will end up waiting for the budget as the motivation for defeating the government.
An election seems needed to clean house. The liberals can drop Dion after an election attempt. The Bloc can drop Mr quit-no-not-quit. The NDP & Greens will get a new snapshot of where they stand. The conservatives can experience their humbling inability to grow past their current minority -thwarting their ability to deploy their hidden agenda.
The next few days will be interesting to watch.
But as of this morning it sounds like the liberals have agreed to a position regarding post 2011 definitions of the engagement. I'm guessing the liberals and conservatives will be able to find some agreement to avoid defeat of the bill, and they will end up waiting for the budget as the motivation for defeating the government.
An election seems needed to clean house. The liberals can drop Dion after an election attempt. The Bloc can drop Mr quit-no-not-quit. The NDP & Greens will get a new snapshot of where they stand. The conservatives can experience their humbling inability to grow past their current minority -thwarting their ability to deploy their hidden agenda.
The next few days will be interesting to watch.
Pre Christmas Calm
There is a strange detente in Canadian politics. I had expected an election by now, but there remains this strange stand-off based on the fact that the Conservatives can't gain any support, and thus would be stuck with the same situation after any election, and the liberals have a weak, uncharismatic leader.
The Bali climate change conference surely didn't win them any support, with his Smiling Smugness presiding over the portfolio. The eventual capitulation to acknowledge a slightly less pig-headed stance will not likely win many supporters over either, but rather there will be just a further sense of following the American position blindly. Interestingly, the pull-back by the American contingent is now being characterized as un-supportable by the White House. What will His Royal Smugitude do if they reverse their position post conference?
Anyway, I'm not sure how this gets resolved. Presumably, given a few month window, Dion might have the foresight to withdraw and let others take over. If they were smart they would secretly cue up a convention and have a re-vote with a short window. Or ideally, show a little leadership and have it all over the web and/or phone in voting.
We can only speculate what the new year will bring.
The Bali climate change conference surely didn't win them any support, with his Smiling Smugness presiding over the portfolio. The eventual capitulation to acknowledge a slightly less pig-headed stance will not likely win many supporters over either, but rather there will be just a further sense of following the American position blindly. Interestingly, the pull-back by the American contingent is now being characterized as un-supportable by the White House. What will His Royal Smugitude do if they reverse their position post conference?
Anyway, I'm not sure how this gets resolved. Presumably, given a few month window, Dion might have the foresight to withdraw and let others take over. If they were smart they would secretly cue up a convention and have a re-vote with a short window. Or ideally, show a little leadership and have it all over the web and/or phone in voting.
We can only speculate what the new year will bring.
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